The price performance after the currency went live

Most people know that once the announcement of a new permanent contract is made, the spot price of the currency often rises immediately, so that there are some robots that are constantly crawling announcements to buy for the first time, not to mention the so-called internal message, the price of the coin has already risen before the announcement is made.

Preparation of data

Download Binance 2023 permanent contract 4hK line data, specific download code previous article has an introductionhttps://www.fmz.com/digest-topic/10283Since the time of the coin does not necessarily stick to the 4h node, this is a bit unruly, but the price of the time of the opening is often confused, with fixed intervals but still filtered the effect of the opening, without delay analysis. NaN represents no data in the dataframe, once the first data appears, it represents the coin is listed. Here, the rise in the price of the coin is calculated every 4 hours after the listing, and a new table is formed.

Below is the specific processing code, which only intercepts data from the last 150 days on-line.

df = df_close/df_close.fillna(method='bfill').iloc[0]
price_changes = {}
for coin in df.columns[df.iloc[0].isna()]:
    listing_time = df[coin].first_valid_index()
    price_changes[coin] = df[coin][df.index>listing_time].values
changes_df = pd.DataFrame.from_dict(price_changes, orient='index').T
changes_df.index = changes_df.index/6
changes_df = changes_df[changes_df.index<150]
changes_df.mean(axis=1).plot(figsize=(15,6),grid=True);

Analysis of results

The result is as shown below, the diagonal axis represents the number of days up, the vertical axis represents the average index. This result can be said to be unexpectedly logical. Surprisingly, contracts are basically down after new ups, and the longer the ups, the more the downs, at least in half a year without a rebound, but it is also reasonable to think, the so-called ups have been realized before the ups, the next fall is normal.

Excluding Index Effects

In the previous article, it was introduced that the digital currency is more affected by the decline of the same currency, is the decline of the overall index affected by the performance? Here, let's change the price change relative to the change in the index, and see the results.

total_index = df.mean(axis=1)
df = df.divide(total_index,axis=0)

The rise of the yuan

By statistically comparing the weekly number of updated coins and the relationship between the index, it is clear that the strategy of the upward trend of the yuan is seen: the bull market rises frequently, the bear market rarely rises. This year, February and October are the peak periods of the upward trend, both coinciding with the bull market, during the relatively bleak period of the fall, the yuan basically does not sign new contracts.

Summary

This article analyzes the long-term downward trend of newly listed contracts by analyzing the 4hK data of the permanent contracts for the year 2023 of the currency. This may reflect a gradual decline in the market's initial enthusiasm and a return to rationality. If you design a strategy of freeing up a certain amount of funds on the first day of trading, holding a flat position for a while, you are likely to make money.