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RSIと重度の動向平均をベースにしたトレンドフォロー戦略

作者: リン・ハーンチャオチャン, 日付: 2023-12-25 13:28:24
タグ:

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概要

この戦略は,相対強度指数 (RSI) と重度の移動平均 (WMA) という2つのよく知られた指標に基づいています.市場傾向を特定し,その方向性を追います.RSIは過買い/過売値を判断し,WMAは価格傾向を決定します.両者の組み合わせは,無関係な信号を効果的にフィルターし,収益性を向上させることができます.これは,利益/損失に基づいてポジションサイズを調整するマネーマネジメント方法と組み合わせた中長期戦略です.

戦略の論理

RSI インディケーター

RSI は,最もよく知られる過買い/過売り指標の1つである.その式は:

$$RSI=100 - \frac{100}{1+\frac{AvgGain}{AvgLoss}}$$

AvgGain は過去 x 日間の 閉店がオープンより高い日の平均であり,AvgLoss は過去 x 日間の 閉店がオープンより低い日の絶対値の平均である.

この戦略では,傾向を判断するためにRSI期間を20に設定します.60を超えるRSIはロング信号を生成し,40以下のRSIはショート信号を生成します.

振込金について

SMAと比較して,WMAは最近の価格をより重く評価する.その公式は:

$$WMA = \frac{\sum_{i=1}^n w_i x_i}{\sum_{i=1}^n w_i}$$

この戦略では,次の重量式を使用します.

$$w = \begin{cases} 100/(4+(n-4)1.3), i <= 3 \ 1.3 となっている.w, & i > 3 \end{case}$$

体重は過去3日間で同じで,1日ごとに1.3倍も下がっています. これは最近の価格の影響を示しています.

この戦略におけるWMAの長さは20です

戦略信号

長期信号:RSI > 60 と WMA の20 日 ROC < -1 短信号: RSI < 40 と WMA の 20 日 ROC > 1

WMAの20日ROCは以下のように計算される.

$$ROC = (WMA_{today}/WMA_{20_days_ago} - 1) \×100$$

利点

  • RSI を使ってトレンドの方向性を決定し,ウィップソー市場でお金を失うのを避ける
  • WMAは,騒音を減らすため,最近の価格を推量し,主要な傾向を特定する
  • RSI と WMA ROC の組み合わせにより,無関係な信号がフィルタリングされます.
  • 複数のATR後継得益,柔軟な得益
  • 資金管理は,利益/損失に基づいてポジションサイズを調整し,リスクを制御する

リスク

  • パラメータの設定が正しくない場合,取引頻度は増加する可能性があります.
  • 誤ったストップ損失設定は損失を増やす可能性があります.
  • トレンドフォローストラテジーのように,範囲限定市場には適さない
  • マクロ環境の変化に注意し,必要に応じて手動介入

改善 の 方向

  • テスト RSI 長さ,WMA 長さ,ROC 値 最適パラメータセットを見つけるために
  • 最適なポジション調整計画を発見するために,さまざまなマネーマネジメント方法をテスト
  • さらに信号フィルタリングのための他の指標を追加
  • ストップ・ロスの戦略を組み込む
  • トレンド中に利益を最大化するために利益戦略を最適化

結論

この戦略は,RSIとWMAを組み合わせて,中長期間の主要なトレンドから利益を得ることを目的として,トレンド方向を決定する.マネーマネジメントと利益採取戦略もリスク制御に使用される.これは実用的な価値がありますが,パラメータ設定とストップロスのメカニズムはより良い結果のために継続的なテストと最適化が必要です.投資家は状況を評価し,必要に応じて手動で介入し,制御可能なリスクを確保する必要があります.


/*backtest
start: 2022-12-24 00:00:00
end: 2023-12-06 05:20:00
period: 1d
basePeriod: 1h
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// © gsanson66


//This code is based on RSI and a backed weighted MA
//@version=5
strategy("RSI + MA BACKTESTING", overlay=true, initial_capital=1000, default_qty_type=strategy.fixed, commission_type=strategy.commission.percent, commission_value=0.18, slippage=3)


//------------------------TOOL TIPS---------------------------//

t1 = "Choice between a Standard MA (SMA) or a backed-weighted MA (RWMA) which permits to minimize the impact of short term reversal. Default is RWMA."
t2 = "Value of RSI to send a LONG or a SHORT signal. RSI above 60 is a LONG signal and RSI below 40 is a SHORT signal."
t3 = "Rate of Change Value of selected MA to send a LONG or a SHORT signal. By default : ROC MA below -1 is a LONG signal and ROC MA above 1 is a SHORT signal"
t4 = "Threshold value to trigger trailing Take Profit. This threshold is calculated as a multiple of the ATR (Average True Range)."
t5 = "Percentage value of trailing Take Profit. This Trailing TP follows the profit if it increases, remaining selected percentage below it, but stops if the profit decreases."
t6 = "Each gain or losse (relative to the previous reference) in an amount equal to this fixed ratio will change quantity of orders."
t7 = "The amount of money to be added to or subtracted from orders once the fixed ratio has been reached."


//------------------------FUNCTIONS---------------------------//

//@function which calculate a retro weighted moving average to minimize the impact of short term reversal
rwma(source, length) =>
    sum = 0.0
    denominator = 0.0
    weight = 0.0
    weight_x = 100/(4+(length-4)*1.30)
    weight_y = 1.30*weight_x
    for i=0 to length - 1
        if i <= 3
            weight := weight_x
        else
            weight := weight_y
        sum := sum + source[i] * weight
        denominator := denominator + weight
    rwma = sum/denominator

//@function which permits the user to choose a moving average type
ma(source, length, type) =>
    switch type
        "SMA" => ta.sma(source, length)
        "RWMA" => rwma(source, length)

//@function Displays text passed to `txt` when called.
debugLabel(txt, color) =>
    label.new(bar_index, high, text = txt, color=color, style = label.style_label_lower_right, textcolor = color.black, size = size.small)

//@function which looks if the close date of the current bar falls inside the date range
inBacktestPeriod(start, end) => (time >= start) and (time <= end)


//--------------------------------USER INPUTS-------------------------------//

//Technical parameters
rsiLengthInput = input.int(20, minval=1, title="RSI Length", group="RSI Settings")
maTypeInput = input.string("RWMA", title="MA Type", options=["SMA", "RWMA"], group="MA Settings", inline="1", tooltip=t1)
maLenghtInput = input.int(20, minval=1, title="MA Length", group="MA Settings", inline="1")
rsiLongSignalValue = input.int(60, minval=1, maxval=99, title="RSI Long Signal", group="Strategy parameters", inline="3")
rsiShortSignalValue = input.int(40, minval=1, maxval=99, title="RSI Short Signal", group="Strategy parameters", inline="3", tooltip=t2)
rocMovAverLongSignalValue = input.float(-1, maxval=0, title="ROC MA Long Signal", group="Strategy parameters", inline="4")
rocMovAverShortSignalValue = input.float(1, minval=0, title="ROC MA Short Signal", group="Strategy parameters", inline="4", tooltip=t3)
//TP Activation and Trailing TP
takeProfitActivationInput = input.float(5, minval=1.0, title="TP activation in multiple of ATR", group="Strategy parameters", tooltip=t4)
trailingStopInput = input.float(3, minval=0, title="Trailing TP in percentage", group="Strategy parameters", tooltip=t5)
//Money Management
fixedRatio = input.int(defval=400, minval=1, title="Fixed Ratio Value ($)", group="Money Management", tooltip=t6)
increasingOrderAmount = input.int(defval=200, minval=1, title="Increasing Order Amount ($)", group="Money Management", tooltip=t7)
//Backtesting period
startDate = input(title="Start Date", defval=timestamp("1 Jan 2018 00:00:00"), group="Backtesting Period")
endDate = input(title="End Date", defval=timestamp("1 July 2024 00:00:00"), group="Backtesting Period")


//------------------------------VARIABLES INITIALISATION-----------------------------//

float rsi = ta.rsi(close, rsiLengthInput)
float ma = ma(close, maLenghtInput, maTypeInput)
float roc_ma = ((ma/ma[maLenghtInput]) - 1)*100
float atr = ta.atr(20)
var float trailingStopOffset = na
var float trailingStopActivation = na
var float trailingStop = na
var float stopLoss = na
var bool long = na
var bool short = na
var bool bufferTrailingStopDrawing = na
float theoreticalStopPrice = na
bool inRange = na
equity = math.abs(strategy.equity - strategy.openprofit)
strategy.initial_capital = 50000
var float capital_ref = strategy.initial_capital
var float cashOrder = strategy.initial_capital * 0.95


//------------------------------CHECKING SOME CONDITIONS ON EACH SCRIPT EXECUTION-------------------------------//

//Checking if the date belong to the range
inRange := true

//Checking performances of the strategy
if equity > capital_ref + fixedRatio
    spread = (equity - capital_ref)/fixedRatio
    nb_level = int(spread)
    increasingOrder = nb_level * increasingOrderAmount
    cashOrder := cashOrder + increasingOrder
    capital_ref := capital_ref + nb_level*fixedRatio
if equity < capital_ref - fixedRatio
    spread = (capital_ref - equity)/fixedRatio
    nb_level = int(spread)
    decreasingOrder = nb_level * increasingOrderAmount
    cashOrder := cashOrder - decreasingOrder
    capital_ref := capital_ref - nb_level*fixedRatio

//Checking if we close all trades in case where we exit the backtesting period
if strategy.position_size!=0 and not inRange
    debugLabel("END OF BACKTESTING PERIOD : we close the trade", color=color.rgb(116, 116, 116))
    strategy.close_all()
    bufferTrailingStopDrawing := false
    stopLoss := na
    trailingStopActivation := na
    trailingStop := na
    short := false
    long := false


//------------------------------STOP LOSS AND TRAILING STOP ACTIVATION----------------------------//

// We handle the stop loss and trailing stop activation 
if (low <= stopLoss or high >= trailingStopActivation) and long
    if high >= trailingStopActivation
        bufferTrailingStopDrawing := true
    else if low <= stopLoss
        long := false
    stopLoss := na
    trailingStopActivation := na
if (low <= trailingStopActivation or high >= stopLoss) and short
    if low <= trailingStopActivation
        bufferTrailingStopDrawing := true
    else if high >= stopLoss
        short := false
    stopLoss := na
    trailingStopActivation := na


//-------------------------------------TRAILING STOP--------------------------------------//

// If the traling stop is activated, we manage its plotting with the bufferTrailingStopDrawing
if bufferTrailingStopDrawing and long
    theoreticalStopPrice := high - trailingStopOffset * syminfo.mintick
    if na(trailingStop)
        trailingStop := theoreticalStopPrice
    else if theoreticalStopPrice > trailingStop
        trailingStop := theoreticalStopPrice
    else if low <= trailingStop
        trailingStop := na
        bufferTrailingStopDrawing := false
        long := false
if bufferTrailingStopDrawing and short
    theoreticalStopPrice := low + trailingStopOffset * syminfo.mintick
    if na(trailingStop)
        trailingStop := theoreticalStopPrice
    else if theoreticalStopPrice < trailingStop
        trailingStop := theoreticalStopPrice
    else if high >= trailingStop
        trailingStop := na
        bufferTrailingStopDrawing := false
        short := false


//---------------------------------LONG CONDITION--------------------------//

if rsi >= 60 and roc_ma <= rocMovAverLongSignalValue and inRange and not long
    if short
        bufferTrailingStopDrawing := false
        stopLoss := na
        trailingStopActivation := na
        trailingStop := na
        short := false
    trailingStopActivation := close + takeProfitActivationInput*atr
    trailingStopOffset := (trailingStopActivation * trailingStopInput/100) / syminfo.mintick
    stopLoss := close - 3*atr
    long := true
    qty = cashOrder/close
    strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, qty)
    strategy.exit("Exit Long", "Long", stop = stopLoss, trail_price = trailingStopActivation,
                 trail_offset = trailingStopOffset)


//--------------------------------SHORT CONDITION-------------------------------//

if rsi <= 40 and roc_ma >= rocMovAverShortSignalValue and inRange and not short
    if long
        bufferTrailingStopDrawing := false
        stopLoss := na
        trailingStopActivation := na
        trailingStop := na
        long := false
    trailingStopActivation := close - takeProfitActivationInput*atr
    trailingStopOffset := (trailingStopActivation * trailingStopInput/100) / syminfo.mintick
    stopLoss := close + 3*atr
    short := true
    qty = cashOrder/close
    strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short, qty)
    strategy.exit("Exit Short", "Short", stop = stopLoss, trail_price = trailingStopActivation,
                 trail_offset = trailingStopOffset)


//--------------------------------PLOTTING ELEMENT---------------------------------//

// Plotting of element in the graph
plotchar(rsi, "RSI", "", location.top, color.rgb(0, 214, 243))
plot(ma, "MA", color.rgb(219, 219, 18))
plotchar(roc_ma, "ROC MA", "", location.top, color=color.orange)
// Visualizer trailing stop and stop loss movement
plot(stopLoss, "SL", color.red, 3, plot.style_linebr)
plot(trailingStopActivation, "Trigger Trail", color.green, 3, plot.style_linebr)
plot(trailingStop, "Trailing Stop",  color.blue, 3, plot.style_linebr)


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