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Estratégia de tendências baseada em nuvem usando a Nuvem Ichimoku

Autora:ChaoZhang, Data: 2024-02-22 13:38:50
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Resumo

Esta estratégia é uma melhoria das estratégias tradicionais de média móvel, usando o indicador Ichimoku Cloud para ajudar a determinar o viés de alta e baixa.

Estratégia lógica

A Nuvem Ichimoku é composta pela linha tenkan, linha kijun, linha chikou e linhas senkou. Os sinais de cruz de ouro e cruz morta são gerados quando a linha tenkan cruza acima ou abaixo da linha kijun.

Especificamente, o sinal de entrada longa é acionado quando a linha tenkan atravessa a linha kijun e o preço quebra acima do topo da Nuvem.

Vantagens

Em comparação com as estratégias tradicionais de média móvel, esta estratégia tem as seguintes vantagens:

  1. Ichimoku Cloud combina ação de preço para evitar falsos sinais de ruptura
  2. A nuvem atua como um stop loss adaptativo para controlar o risco
  3. Os parâmetros podem ser ajustados para diferentes prazos e regimes de mercado

Análise de riscos

Os principais riscos desta estratégia incluem:

  1. Risco de reversão da tendência.
  2. Risco de falha de sinal de fuga, retiros a curto prazo podem gerar sinais errados.
  3. Risco de otimização de parâmetros. Parâmetros diferentes se adaptam a diferentes prazos.

Soluções:

  1. Empregar stop loss adaptativo e tomada parcial de lucro
  2. Referência ao contexto de um período de tempo mais longo para evitar ruído
  3. Optimização robusta de parâmetros através de backtesting

Oportunidades de melhoria

Esta estratégia pode ser melhorada:

  1. Incorporar aprendizagem de máquina para determinar a credibilidade do breakout
  2. Implementação de paradas adaptativas que ajustam automaticamente a distância de paragem
  3. Optimização de parâmetros para encontrar combinações ideais

Conclusão

Em conclusão, esta é uma estratégia geral confiável e de baixo risco. Ao incorporar a Ichimoku Cloud em cima das médias móveis, ajuda a filtrar alguns sinais falsos.

/*backtest
start: 2024-01-01 00:00:00
end: 2024-01-31 23:59:59
period: 1h
basePeriod: 15m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

//@version=5

//  -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
//  Copyright © 2024 Skyrex, LLC. All rights reserved.
//  -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

//  Version: v2
//  Release:  Jan 19, 2024

strategy(title = "Advanced Ichimoku Clouds Strategy Long and Short", 
         shorttitle = "Ichimoku Strategy Long and Short", 
         overlay = true, 
         format = format.inherit, 
         pyramiding = 1, 
         calc_on_order_fills = false, 
         calc_on_every_tick = true, 
         default_qty_type = strategy.percent_of_equity, 
         default_qty_value = 100, 
         initial_capital = 10000, 
         currency = currency.NONE,  
         commission_type = strategy.commission.percent, 
         commission_value = 0)

// Trading Period Settings
lookBackPeriodStart = input(title="Trade Start Date/Time", defval = timestamp('2023-01-01T00:00:00'), group = "Trading Period")
lookBackPeriodStop = input(title="Trade Stop Date/Time", defval = timestamp('2025-01-01T00:00:00'), group = "Trading Period")

// Trading Mode
tradingMode = input.string("Long", "Trading Mode", options = ["Long", "Short"], group = "Position side")

// Long Mode Signal Options
entrySignalOptionsLong = input.string("Bullish All", "Select Entry Signal (Long)", options = ["None", "Bullish Strong", "Bullish Neutral", "Bullish Weak", "Bullish Strong and Neutral", "Bullish Neutral and Weak", "Bullish Strong and Weak", "Bullish All"], group = "Long Mode Signals - set up if Trading Mode: Long")
exitSignalOptionsLong = input.string("Bearish Weak", "Select Exit Signal (Long)", options = ["None", "Bearish Strong", "Bearish Neutral", "Bearish Weak", "Bearish Strong and Neutral", "Bearish Neutral and Weak", "Bearish Strong and Weak", "Bearish All"], group = "Long Mode Signals - set up if Trading Mode: Long")

// Short Mode Signal Options
entrySignalOptionsShort = input.string("None", "Select Entry Signal (Short)", options = ["None", "Bearish Strong", "Bearish Neutral", "Bearish Weak", "Bearish Strong and Neutral", "Bearish Neutral and Weak", "Bearish Strong and Weak", "Bearish All"], group = "Short Mode Signals - set up if Trading Mode: Short")
exitSignalOptionsShort = input.string("None", "Select Exit Signal (Short)", options = ["None", "Bullish Strong", "Bullish Neutral", "Bullish Weak", "Bullish Strong and Neutral", "Bullish Neutral and Weak", "Bullish Strong and Weak", "Bullish All"], group = "Short Mode Signals - set up if Trading Mode: Short")

// Risk Management Settings
takeProfitPct = input.float(7, "Take Profit, % (0 - disabled)", minval = 0, step = 0.1, group = "Risk Management")
stopLossPct = input.float(3.5, "Stop Loss, % (0 - disabled)", minval = 0, step = 0.1, group = "Risk Management")

// Indicator Settings
tenkanPeriods = input.int(9, "Tenkan", minval=1, group="Indicator Settings")
kijunPeriods = input.int(26, "Kijun", minval=1, group="Indicator Settings")
chikouPeriods = input.int(52, "Chikou", minval=1, group="Indicator Settings")
displacement = input.int(26, "Offset", minval=1, group="Indicator Settings")

// Display Settings
showTenkan = input(false, "Show Tenkan Line", group = "Display Settings")
showKijun = input(false, "Show Kijun Line", group = "Display Settings")
showSenkouA = input(true, "Show Senkou A Line", group = "Display Settings")
showSenkouB = input(true, "Show Senkou B Line", group = "Display Settings")
showChikou = input(false, "Show Chikou Line", group = "Display Settings")

// Function to convert percentage to price points based on entry price
pctToPoints(pct) => 
    strategy.position_avg_price * pct / 100

// Colors and Transparency Level
transparencyLevel = 90
colorGreen = color.new(#36a336, 23)
colorRed = color.new(#d82727, 47)
colorTenkanViolet = color.new(#9400D3, 0)
colorKijun = color.new(#fdd8a0, 0)
colorLime = color.new(#006400, 0)
colorMaroon = color.new(#8b0000, 0)
colorGreenTransparent = color.new(colorGreen, transparencyLevel)
colorRedTransparent = color.new(colorRed, transparencyLevel)

// Ichimoku Calculations
donchian(len) => math.avg(ta.lowest(len), ta.highest(len))
tenkan = donchian(tenkanPeriods)
kijun = donchian(kijunPeriods)
senkouA = math.avg(tenkan, kijun)
senkouB = donchian(chikouPeriods)
displacedSenkouA = senkouA[displacement - 1]
displacedSenkouB = senkouB[displacement - 1]

// Plot Ichimoku Lines
plot(showTenkan ? tenkan : na, color=colorTenkanViolet, title = "Tenkan", linewidth=2)
plot(showKijun ? kijun : na, color=colorKijun, title = "Kijun", linewidth=2)
plot(showChikou ? close : na, offset=-displacement, color = colorLime, title = "Chikou", linewidth=1)
p1 = plot(showSenkouA ? senkouA : na, offset=displacement - 1, color=colorGreen, title = "Senkou A", linewidth=2)
p2 = plot(showSenkouB ? senkouB : na, offset=displacement - 1, color=colorRed, title = "Senkou B", linewidth=2)
fill(p1, p2, color=senkouA > senkouB ? colorGreenTransparent : colorRedTransparent)

// Signal Calculations
bullishSignal = ta.crossover(tenkan, kijun)
bearishSignal = ta.crossunder(tenkan, kijun)
bullishSignalValues = bullishSignal ? tenkan : na
bearishSignalValues = bearishSignal ? tenkan : na

strongBullishSignal = bullishSignalValues > displacedSenkouA and bullishSignalValues > displacedSenkouB
neutralBullishSignal = ((bullishSignalValues > displacedSenkouA and bullishSignalValues < displacedSenkouB) or (bullishSignalValues < displacedSenkouA and bullishSignalValues > displacedSenkouB))
weakBullishSignal = bullishSignalValues < displacedSenkouA and bullishSignalValues < displacedSenkouB

strongBearishSignal = bearishSignalValues < displacedSenkouA and bearishSignalValues < displacedSenkouB
neutralBearishSignal = ((bearishSignalValues > displacedSenkouA and bearishSignalValues < displacedSenkouB) or (bearishSignalValues < displacedSenkouA and bearishSignalValues > displacedSenkouB))
weakBearishSignal = bearishSignalValues > displacedSenkouA and bearishSignalValues > displacedSenkouB

// Functions to determine entry and exit conditions for Long and Short
isEntrySignalLong() =>
    entryCondition = false
    if entrySignalOptionsLong == "None"
        entryCondition := false
    else if entrySignalOptionsLong == "Bullish Strong"
        entryCondition := strongBullishSignal
    else if entrySignalOptionsLong == "Bullish Neutral"
        entryCondition := neutralBullishSignal
    else if entrySignalOptionsLong == "Bullish Weak"
        entryCondition := weakBullishSignal
    else if entrySignalOptionsLong == "Bullish Strong and Neutral"
        entryCondition := strongBullishSignal or neutralBullishSignal
    else if entrySignalOptionsLong == "Bullish Neutral and Weak"
        entryCondition := neutralBullishSignal or weakBullishSignal
    else if entrySignalOptionsLong == "Bullish Strong and Weak"
        entryCondition := strongBullishSignal or weakBullishSignal
    else if entrySignalOptionsLong == "Bullish All"
        entryCondition := strongBullishSignal or neutralBullishSignal or weakBullishSignal
    entryCondition

isExitSignalLong() =>
    exitCondition = false
    if exitSignalOptionsLong == "None"
        exitCondition := false
    else if exitSignalOptionsLong == "Bearish Strong"
        exitCondition := strongBearishSignal
    else if exitSignalOptionsLong == "Bearish Neutral"
        exitCondition := neutralBearishSignal
    else if exitSignalOptionsLong == "Bearish Weak"
        exitCondition := weakBearishSignal
    else if exitSignalOptionsLong == "Bearish Strong and Neutral"
        exitCondition := strongBearishSignal or neutralBearishSignal
    else if exitSignalOptionsLong == "Bearish Neutral and Weak"
        exitCondition := neutralBearishSignal or weakBearishSignal
    else if exitSignalOptionsLong == "Bearish Strong and Weak"
        exitCondition := strongBearishSignal or weakBearishSignal
    else if exitSignalOptionsLong == "Bearish All"
        exitCondition := strongBearishSignal or neutralBearishSignal or weakBearishSignal
    exitCondition

isEntrySignalShort() =>
    entryCondition = false
    if entrySignalOptionsShort == "None"
        entryCondition := false
    else if entrySignalOptionsShort == "Bearish Strong"
        entryCondition := strongBearishSignal
    else if entrySignalOptionsShort == "Bearish Neutral"
        entryCondition := neutralBearishSignal
    else if entrySignalOptionsShort == "Bearish Weak"
        entryCondition := weakBearishSignal
    else if entrySignalOptionsShort == "Bearish Strong and Neutral"
        entryCondition := strongBearishSignal or neutralBearishSignal
    else if entrySignalOptionsShort == "Bearish Neutral and Weak"
        entryCondition := neutralBearishSignal or weakBearishSignal
    else if entrySignalOptionsShort == "Bearish Strong and Weak"
        entryCondition := strongBearishSignal or weakBearishSignal
    else if entrySignalOptionsShort == "Bearish All"
        entryCondition := strongBearishSignal or neutralBearishSignal or weakBearishSignal
    entryCondition

isExitSignalShort() =>
    exitCondition = false
    if exitSignalOptionsShort == "None"
        exitCondition := false
    else if exitSignalOptionsShort == "Bullish Strong"
        exitCondition := strongBullishSignal
    else if exitSignalOptionsShort == "Bullish Neutral"
        exitCondition := neutralBullishSignal
    else if exitSignalOptionsShort == "Bullish Weak"
        exitCondition := weakBullishSignal
    else if exitSignalOptionsShort == "Bullish Strong and Neutral"
        exitCondition := strongBullishSignal or neutralBullishSignal
    else if exitSignalOptionsShort == "Bullish Neutral and Weak"
        exitCondition := neutralBullishSignal or weakBullishSignal
    else if exitSignalOptionsShort == "Bullish Strong and Weak"
        exitCondition := strongBullishSignal or weakBullishSignal
    else if exitSignalOptionsShort == "Bullish All"
        exitCondition := strongBullishSignal or neutralBullishSignal or weakBullishSignal
    exitCondition

// Strategy logic for entries and exits
if true
    if tradingMode == "Long"
        takeProfitLevelLong = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 + takeProfitPct / 100)
        stopLossLevelLong = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 - stopLossPct / 100)

        if isEntrySignalLong()
            strategy.entry("Enter Long", strategy.long)
        if (takeProfitPct > 0 and close >= takeProfitLevelLong) or (stopLossPct > 0 and close <= stopLossLevelLong) or (exitSignalOptionsLong != "None" and isExitSignalLong())
            strategy.close("Enter Long", comment="Exit Long")

    else if tradingMode == "Short"
        takeProfitLevelShort = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 - takeProfitPct / 100)
        stopLossLevelShort = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 + stopLossPct / 100)

        if isEntrySignalShort()
            strategy.entry("Enter Short", strategy.short)
        if (takeProfitPct > 0 and close <= takeProfitLevelShort) or (stopLossPct > 0 and close >= stopLossLevelShort) or (exitSignalOptionsShort != "None" and isExitSignalShort())
            strategy.close("Enter Short", comment="Exit Short")
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