This is a trading strategy based on price action, combined with moving averages to identify trends and using price patterns for entry.
The strategy is mainly based on the following aspects:
Using EMA to judge trends. When 89-period EMA and Hull MA are both red, it is judged as a Bear trend, go short only; when both are green, it is judged as a Bull trend, go long only; when one is green and one is red, it is judged as consolidation, both long and short are possible.
Identifying signals with price patterns. The strategy recognizes various candlestick combinations like single candles, fakey patterns, inside bars etc. to spot potential entry points.
Combining with key support/resistance levels for entry. The strategy also incorporates key S/R levels to further verify price pattern signals and avoid false breakouts.
MACD as confirmation. MACD histogram colors are used to confirm price pattern signals and improve probability.
Trend following mechanism. The strategy includes a trend following module to more accurately detect trend reversals and avoid chasing tops and bottoms.
Setting stop loss and take profit. Fixed stop loss and take profit based on ATR are included to manage risk/reward.
The strategy has the following advantages:
Based on price action, unaffected by indicators. Pure price-based without complex indicators, closer to market nature.
Combining trends, avoiding chasing. EMA and Hull MA identify trend direction, operating along trends, avoiding counter-trend trades.
Pattern + indicator improves probability. Price patterns combined with MACD verifies signals, filters false signals, improving profitability.
Trend following catches big moves. Trend following module catches larger time frame trends, with greater profit potential.
Stop loss/take profit controls risk. Fixed stop loss/take profit ratios help manage risk/reward.
The strategy also has the following risks:
Larger time frame trend reversal risk. The strategy works best with clear mid/short-term trends. Larger reversal risks being stopped out. Larger time frame analysis can help avoid.
Price pattern failure risk. Price patterns have varying effectiveness in different market environments. Some markets can cause patterns to fail, leading to losses. Backtesting various markets can optimize pattern selection.
Parameter optimization difficulty. The strategy has multiple parameters. Different combinations impact results significantly. Extensive backtesting required to find optimal parameters. Static setting also risks market regime changes. A dynamic parameter optimization mechanism can help address this.
Inability to control individual trade risk. Fixed stop loss/take profit cannot adapt to fluctuations in each trade and manage individual trade risk/reward ratios. Dynamic stop loss algorithms or risk management modules can help.
The strategy can be improved in the following aspects:
Introduce machine learning for more complex pattern recognition. Use deep learning etc. to automatically detect more effective patterns.
Increase adaptiveness. Build dynamic parameter optimization mechanisms so the strategy can adjust based on real-time market conditions rather than static settings.
Incorporate more factors to verify signals. Add more price action factors like volume, overnight gaps etc. to confirm signals and reduce risk of being trapped.
Introduce risk management and position sizing. Automatically adjust position sizes based on thresholds to effectively control single trade stop loss and optimize risk/reward ratios.
Optimize entry mechanisms. Refine trend detection modules to identify trend/consolidation rhythms more accurately improving entry accuracy.
Overall, the core strength of this strategy lies in price action-based judgments, avoiding dependence on indicators and maximally reflecting market nature. Combining trends and indicators improves profitability while stop loss/take profit controls risk. But risks like larger time frame trend reversals, price pattern failures need to be addressed. Future improvements can come from machine learning, dynamic parameter optimization, risk management modules etc. to make the strategy more robust.
/*backtest
start: 2023-08-19 00:00:00
end: 2023-09-18 00:00:00
period: 1h
basePeriod: 15m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
args: [["v_input_1",true]]
*/
//@version=2
// strategy(title="Price Action", shorttitle="Price Action", overlay=true,default_qty_value=2000,initial_capital=1000,currency=currency.USD, pyramiding=1,calc_on_every_tick=true)
// EMA //
HiLoLen = 34
pacL = ema(low,HiLoLen)
pacC = ema(close,HiLoLen)
pacH = ema(high,HiLoLen)
signalMA = ema(close,89)
col1=pacC>signalMA?lime:pacC<signalMA?red:yellow
plot(signalMA, color=col1, title="SignalMA")
// Plot the Price Action Channel (PAC) base on EMA high,low and close//
//L=plot(pacL, color=yellow, linewidth=1, title="High PAC EMA",transp=0)
//C=plot(pacC, color=yellow, style = line, linewidth=1, title="Close PAC EMA",transp=0)
//H=plot(pacH, color=yellow, linewidth=1, title="Low PAC EMA",transp=0)
// HullMA //
n=89
//
n2ma=2*wma(close,round(n/2))
nma=wma(close,n)
diff=n2ma-nma
sqn=round(sqrt(n))
//
n2ma1=2*wma(close[1],round(n/2))
nma1=wma(close[1],n)
diff1=n2ma1-nma1
sqn1=round(sqrt(n))
//
n1=wma(diff,sqn)
n2=wma(diff1,sqn)
condDown = n2 >= n1
condUp = condDown != true
col =condUp ? lime : condDown ? red : yellow
plot(n1,title="Hull MA", color=col,linewidth=1)
// Macd Barcolor
fastlength = 12
slowlength = 26
MACDLength = 9
MACD = ema(close, fastlength) - ema(close, slowlength)
aMACD = ema(MACD, MACDLength)
delta = MACD - aMACD
hisup= iff(delta>delta[1] and delta>0, 1,iff(delta<delta[1], -1, nz(hisup[1], 0)))
hisdown = iff(delta<delta[1] and delta<0, 1,iff(delta>delta[1], -1, nz(hisdown[1], 0)))
//Swing high low//
ktswinghigh=(high<=high[2] and high[1]<=high[2] and high[3]<=high[2] and high[4]<=high[2])// and high<high[1] and high[4]<high[3]) or (high<high[1] and high[1]<high[2] and high[4]<high[2] and high[5]<high[2] and high[3]<high[2])
ktswinghigh3=(high<high[1] and high[1]<high[3] and high[5]<high[3] and high[6]<high[5]and high[2]<high[3] and high[4]<high[3]) or(high<high[3] and high[2]<high[3] and high[1]<high[3] and high[4]<high[3] and high[5]<high[4])
sh=ktswinghigh?high[2]:na
swinghigh = fixnan(sh)
colorsh=swinghigh==swinghigh[1]?white:na
plot(swinghigh,color=colorsh,title="Swing High",style=line,offset=-2)
ktswinglow=(low>=low[2] and low[1]>=low[2] and low[3]>=low[2] and low[4]>=low[2])// and low>low[1] and low[4]>low[3]) or (low>low[1] and low[1]>low[2] and low[4]>low[2] and low[5]>low[2] and low[3]>low[2])
ktswinglow3=low>low[1] and low[1]>low[3] and low[5]>low[3] and low[6]>low[5] and low[2]>low[3] and low[4]>low[3] or (low>low[3] and low[1]>low[3] and low[2]>low[3] and low[4]>low[3] and low[5]>low[4])
sl=ktswinglow?low[2]:na
swinglow = fixnan(sl)
colorsl=swinglow==swinglow[1]?white:na
plot(swinglow,title="Swing Low",color=colorsl,style=line,offset=-2)
// Pinbar FailBreak
ema21=ema(close,13)
beariskpinbar= (close-open<(high-low)/3 and open-close<(high-low)/3) and ((high>swinghigh and high>high[1] and high>high[2] and high>high[3] and close<swinghigh))// or ((open[2]<ema21[2] or close[2]<ema21[2]) and high>ema21 and low[2]<low[1] and low[3]<low[2] and high>high[1] and high>high[2] and high>high[3]))
bullishpibar=(close-open<(high-low)/3 and open-close<(high-low)/3) and ((low<swinglow and low<low[1] and low<low[2] and low<low[3] and close>swinglow))// or ((open[2]>ema21[2] or close[2]>ema21[2]) and low<ema21 and high[2]>high[1] and high[3]>high[2] and low<low[1] and low<low[2] and low<low[3]))
//
Inside(position) => high <= high[position] and low >= low[position]
outsidebar = (high >= high[1] and low <= low[1])
barcolor((high <= high[1] and low >= low[1]) ? white : na)
barcolor(hisup==1 and MACD>0 ? lime: hisdown==1 and MACD<0 ? red : hisup==-1 and MACD>0 ? green: orange )
barcolor(bullishpibar or beariskpinbar ?white:na)
secLast = 1
fakey = (high[1] <= high[2] and low[1] >= low[2] and high > high[2] and close >= low[2] and close < high[2]) or (high[2]<=high[3] and low[2]>=low[3] and high[1]>high[2] and close<high[2] and close>low[3] and high-close>0.75*(high-low))// ? red : na
fakey1 = (high[1] <= high[2] and low[1] >= low[2] and low < low[2] and close > low[2] and close <= high[1]) or (high[2]<=high[3] and low[2]>=low[3] and low[1]<low[2] and close>low[2] and close<high[3] and close-low>0.75*(high-low)) //? lime : na
barcolor(fakey or fakey1?white:na)
//plotshape(beariskpinbar and (not fakey or (fakey and outsidebar)) , title= "Pinbar Bearisk", location=location.abovebar, color=white, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Pinbar",size=size.tiny)
//plotshape(bullishpibar and (not fakey1 or (fakey1 and outsidebar)), title= "Pinbar Bullish", location=location.belowbar, color=white, style=shape.arrowup, text="Pinbar",size=size.tiny)
//insidebar= Inside(secLast)? #FF9800: na
onewhitesoliderbear= close<open and high[1]-close>0.5*(high[1]-low[1]) and (open-close)>2/3*(high-low) and (high[1]>ema21[1] or high>ema21) and open[1]<ema21[1] and close-low<(high-close)*0.3 and (open[2]<ema21[2] or close[2]<ema21[2]) and close<ema21 and low[2]<low[1] and low[3]<low[2]
onewwhitesoliderbull= close>open and close-low[1]>0.5*(high[1]-low[1]) and (close-open)>2/3*(high-low) and (low[1]<ema21[1] or low<ema21) and open[1]>ema21[1] and high-close<(close-low)*0.3 and (open[2]>ema21[2] or close[2]>ema21[2]) and close>ema21 and high[2]>high[1] and high[3]>high[2]
onewhitesoliderbear1= close<open and high[1]-close>0.5*(high[1]-low[1]) and (open-close)>2/3*(high-low) and (high[1]>pacC[1] or high>pacC) and open[1]<pacC[1] and close-low<(high-close)*0.3 and (open[2]<pacC[2] or close[2]<pacC[2]) and close<pacC and low[2]<low[1] and low[3]<low[2]
onewwhitesoliderbull1= close>open and close-low[1]>0.5*(high[1]-low[1]) and (close-open)>2/3*(high-low) and (low[1]<pacC[1] or low<pacC) and open[1]>pacC[1] and high-close<(close-low)*0.3 and (open[2]>pacC[2] or close[2]>pacC[2]) and close>pacC and high[2]>high[1] and high[3]>high[2]
onewhitesoliderbear2= close<open and high[1]-close>0.5*(high[1]-low[1]) and (open-close)>2/3*(high-low) and (high[1]>signalMA[1] or high>signalMA) and open[1]<signalMA[1] and close-low<(high-close)*0.3 and (open[2]<signalMA[2] or close[2]<signalMA[2]) and close<signalMA and low[2]<low[1] and low[3]<low[2]
onewwhitesoliderbull2= close>open and close-low[1]>0.5*(high[1]-low[1]) and (close-open)>2/3*(high-low) and (low[1]<signalMA[1] or low<signalMA) and open[1]>signalMA[1] and high-close<(close-low)*0.3 and (open[2]>signalMA[2] or close[2]>signalMA[2]) and close>signalMA and high[2]>high[1] and high[3]>high[2]
//plotshape(beariskpinbar and (not fakey or (fakey and outsidebar)) and not onewhitesoliderbear and not onewwhitesoliderbull, title= "Pinbar Bearisk", location=location.abovebar, color=white, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Pinbar",size=size.tiny)
//plotshape(bullishpibar and (not fakey1 or (fakey1 and outsidebar)) and not onewwhitesoliderbull and not onewhitesoliderbear, title= "Pinbar Bullish", location=location.belowbar, color=white, style=shape.arrowup, text="Pinbar",size=size.tiny)
//
//pinbar=(open>ema21 and low<ema21 and close-low>2*(high-close)) or (open[1]>ema21[1] and low[1]<ema21[1] and (close-low[1]>2*(high[1]-close) or close-low>2*(high[1]-close)))? green:na
//pinbar2=(open<ema21 and high>ema21 and high-close>2*(close-low)) or (open[1]<ema21[1] and high[1]>ema21[1] and (high[1]-close>2*(close-low[1]) or high-close>2*(close-low[1])))?orange:na
//plot(ema21)
//bgcolor(insidebar, transp=70)
//bgcolor(fakey, transp=80)
//bgcolor(fakey1, transp=80)
//bgcolor(pinbar, transp=70)
//bgcolor(pinbar2, transp=70)
insidebar = ((high[1] <= high[2] and low[1] >= low[2]) and not(outsidebar))
barcolor(outsidebar and high[1]<=high[2] and low[1]>=low[2]?white:na)
bearishibbf=( insidebar and (high > high[1] and close < high[1]))
//barcolor( bearishibbf ? white : na, 0, true, "Bearish Inside Bar Breakout Failure")
//plotshape(bearishibbf and not fakey, title= "Bearish Inside Bar Breakout Failure", location=location.abovebar, color=white, style=shape.arrowdown, text="InsideBar\nFailBreak",size=size.tiny)
bullishibbf=(insidebar and (low < low[1] and close > low[1]))
//barcolor( bullishibbf ? white : na, 0, true, "Bullish Inside Bar Breakout Failure")
//plotshape(bullishibbf and not fakey1, title= "Bullish Inside Bar Breakout Failure", location=location.belowbar, color=white, style=shape.arrowup, text="InsideBar\nFailBreak",size=size.tiny)
//
barcolor((onewwhitesoliderbull or onewhitesoliderbear) and not insidebar?white:na)
//
// Outsidebar follow Insidebar
///plotshape(outsidebar and ((high[1]<=high[2] and low[1]>=low[2] ) ) and close<ema21 and not beariskpinbar and not bullishpibar, title= "OutsideBar Break InsideBar", location=location.abovebar, color=white, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Outside\nBar",size=size.tiny)
//plotshape(outsidebar and ((high[1]<=high[2] and low[1]>=low[2]) ) and close>ema21 and not beariskpinbar and not bullishpibar, title= "OutsideBar Break InsideBar", location=location.belowbar, color=white, style=shape.arrowup, text="Outside\nBar",size=size.tiny)
//
whitesoldierreversal= ((low[1]<low[2] and low[2]<low[3]) or (high[1]<high[2] and high[2]<high[3])) and low[3]<low[8] and low[8]<ema21[8] and high[2]<ema21[2] and high[1]<ema21[1] and high[3]<ema21[3] and close-low[1]>(high[1]-close) and (open<close[1] or open<open[1]) and close-open>0.3*(high-low) and high-close<0.5*(close-open)
blackcrowreversal= ((high[1]>high[2] and high[2]>high[3]) or (low[1]>low[2] and low[2]>low[3])) and high[3]>high[8] and high[8]>ema21[8] and low[2]>ema21[2] and low[1]>ema21[1] and low[3]>ema21[3] and close-low[1]<(high[1]-close) and (open>close[1] or open>open[1]) and open-close>0.3*(high-low) and close-low<0.5*(open-close)
// Black Crow and White Soldier Reversal
//plotshape(whitesoldierreversal, title= "Piercing Pattern", location=location.belowbar, color=white, style=shape.arrowup, text="Piercing",size=size.tiny)
//plotshape(blackcrowreversal, title= "Dark Cloud Cover", location=location.abovebar, color=white, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Dark\nCloud",size=size.tiny)
barcolor(blackcrowreversal or whitesoldierreversal?white:na)
//
pinbarreversalbull= ((low[1]<low[2] and low[2]<low[3]) or (high[1]<high[2] and high[2]<high[3])) and low[3]<low[8] and low[8]<ema21[8] and high[2]<ema21[2] and high[1]<ema21[1] and high[3]<ema21[3] and close-open<(high-low)/3 and open-close<(high-low)/3 and high-close<close-low and low<low[1]
pinbarreversalbear= ((high[1]>high[2] and high[2]>high[3])or (low[1]>low[2] and low[2]>low[3])) and high[3]>high[8] and high[8]>ema21[8] and low[2]>ema21[2] and low[1]>ema21[1] and low[3]>ema21[3] and close-open<(high-low)/3 and open-close<(high-low)/3 and high-close>close-low and high>high[1]
// Pinbar Reversal
//plotshape(pinbarreversalbull and not whitesoldierreversal and not fakey1 and not blackcrowreversal and not whitesoldierreversal and not bullishpibar, title= "Bullish Pinbar Reversal", location=location.belowbar, color=white, style=shape.arrowup, text="Pinbar",size=size.tiny)
//plotshape(pinbarreversalbear and not blackcrowreversal and not fakey and not whitesoldierreversal and not blackcrowreversal and not beariskpinbar, title= "Bearisk Pinbar Reversal", location=location.abovebar, color=white, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Pinbar",size=size.tiny)
barcolor(pinbarreversalbear or pinbarreversalbull?white:na)
// Fakey
plotshape(fakey and (not outsidebar or not (high[1]<=high[2] and low[1]>=low[2]) ) and not blackcrowreversal , title= "Fakey Bearisk", location=location.abovebar, color=white, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Fakey",size=size.tiny)
plotshape(fakey1 and (not outsidebar or not (high[1]<=high[2] and low[1]>=low[2]) ) and not whitesoldierreversal , title= "Fakey Bullish", location=location.belowbar, color=white, style=shape.arrowup, text="Fakey",size=size.tiny)
// Pinbar Fake Breakout
//plotshape(beariskpinbar and (not fakey or (fakey and outsidebar)) and not onewhitesoliderbear and not onewwhitesoliderbull and not blackcrowreversal and not whitesoldierreversal and not fakey, title= "Pinbar Bearisk", location=location.abovebar, color=white, style=shape.arrowdown, text="FalseBreak\nPinbar",size=size.tiny)
//plotshape(bullishpibar and (not fakey1 or (fakey1 and outsidebar)) and not onewwhitesoliderbull and not onewhitesoliderbear and not whitesoldierreversal and not blackcrowreversal and not fakey1, title= "Pinbar Bullish", location=location.belowbar, color=white, style=shape.arrowup, text="FalseBreak\nPinbar",size=size.tiny)
// Black Crow and White Soldier Continuation
//plotshape((onewhitesoliderbear or onewhitesoliderbear1 or onewhitesoliderbear2) and not insidebar and not fakey and not fakey1 and not outsidebar, title= "One solider Bearisk", location=location.abovebar, color=white, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Black\nCrow",size=size.tiny)
//plotshape((onewwhitesoliderbull or onewwhitesoliderbull1 or onewwhitesoliderbull2)and not insidebar and not fakey and not fakey1 and not outsidebar, title= "One solider Bullish", location=location.belowbar, color=white, style=shape.arrowup, text="White\nSoldier",size=size.tiny)
// Pinbar Continuation
pinbarresistance= (close-open<(high-low)/3 and open-close<(high-low)/3) and high-close>(close-low) and high-open>(open-low) and ((open[2]<ema21[2] or close[2]<ema21[2]) and high>ema21 and low[2]<low[1] and low[3]<low[2] and high>high[1] and high>high[2] and high>high[3])
pinbarsupport=(close-open<(high-low)/3 and open-close<(high-low)/3) and close-low>(high-close) and open-low>(high-open) and ((open[2]>ema21[2] or close[2]>ema21[2]) and low<ema21 and high[2]>high[1] and high[3]>high[2] and low<low[1] and low<low[2] and low<low[3])
//plotshape(pinbarresistance and (not fakey or (fakey and outsidebar)) and not onewhitesoliderbear and not onewwhitesoliderbull and not blackcrowreversal and not whitesoldierreversal and not fakey and not beariskpinbar, title= "Pinbar Bearisk", location=location.abovebar, color=white, style=shape.arrowdown, text="Pinbar",size=size.tiny)
//plotshape(pinbarsupport and (not fakey1 or (fakey1 and outsidebar)) and not onewwhitesoliderbull and not onewhitesoliderbear and not whitesoldierreversal and not blackcrowreversal and not fakey1 and not bullishpibar, title= "Pinbar Bullish", location=location.belowbar, color=white, style=shape.arrowup, text="Pinbar",size=size.tiny)
// barcolor
onlybuy=input(false)
onlysell=input(false)//
conmua= hisup==1 and MACD>0?1: (hisdown[1]==1 and MACD[1]<0 and pacC[1]>signalMA[1]) or (n1[2]<n1[3] and pacC[1]>signalMA[1])?-1:nz(conmua[1],1)
conmua1= conmua==1 and (hisdown==1 and MACD<0 and pacC>signalMA) or (n1[1]<n1[2] and pacC>signalMA)?1:(close[1]>n1[1] and pacC[1]>signalMA[1] and open[1]<n1[1] and close[1]>pacC[1]) or crossunder(pacC,signalMA) ?-1:nz(conmua1[1],1)
conmua2=conmua1==1 and hisup==1 and MACD>0 and close>n1?1: high[1]<high[3] and high[2]<high[3]?-1:nz(conmua2[1],1)
conmua3=conmua2==1 and high<high[2] and high[1]<high[2]?1: (close[1]>swinghigh[1] and hisup[1]==1 and MACD[1]>0) or ( MACD<0)?-1:nz(conmua3[1],1)
mua=conmua3==1 and hisup==1 and MACD>0 and conmua2==-1 and conmua1==-1
mua2= conmua1==1 and ( close>n1 and pacC>signalMA and open<n1 and close>pacC) and conmua[1]==-1
//if(mua2 and onlysell==false)
// strategy.entry("Buy",strategy.long)
conban=hisdown==1 and MACD<0?1:(hisup[1]==1 and MACD[1]>0 and pacC[1]<signalMA[1]) or (n1[2]>n1[3] and pacC[1]<signalMA[1])?-1:nz(conban[1],1)
conban1= conban==1 and (hisup==1 and MACD>0 and pacC<signalMA) or (n1[1]>n1[2] and pacC<signalMA)?1:( close[1]<n1[1] and pacC[1]<signalMA[1] and open[1]>n1[1] and close[1]<pacC[1]) or crossover(pacC,signalMA)?-1:nz(conban1[1],1)
conban2=conban1==1 and hisdown==1 and MACD<0 and close<n1?1: low[1]>low[3] and low[2]>low[3]?-1:nz(conban2[1],1)
conban3=conban2==1 and low[1]>low[2] and low>low[2]?1: (close[1]<swinglow[1] and hisdown[1]==1 and MACD[1]<0) or ( MACD>0)?-1:nz(conban3[1],1)
ban=conban3==1 and hisdown==1 and MACD<0 and conban2==-1
ban2=conban1==1 and ( close<n1 and pacC<signalMA and open>n1 and close<pacC) and conban[1]==-1
//if(ban2 and onlybuy==false)
// strategy.entry("Sell",strategy.short)
plotshape(conmua1==1 and conmua[1]==-1, style= shape.triangleup, color = lime, location = location.bottom,size=size.tiny)
plotshape(conban1==1 and conban[1]==-1, style= shape.triangledown, color = red, location = location.bottom,size=size.tiny)
plotshape(mua2, style= shape.labelup, color = lime, location = location.bottom,size=size.tiny)
plotshape(ban2, style= shape.labeldown, color = red, location = location.bottom,size=size.tiny)
// TP and SL/
SL = input(defval=50.00, title="Chốt lời (Pip)", type=float, step=1)
rr= input(defval=20.00,title="Cắt lỗ (Pip)",type=float, step=1)
useTPandSL = input(defval = true, title = "Sử dụng chốt lời và cắt lỗ?")
Stop = rr*10
Take=SL*10
Q = 100
if(useTPandSL)
strategy.exit("ExitBuy", "Buy", qty_percent=Q, profit= Take, loss=Stop)
strategy.exit("ExitSell", "Sell", qty_percent=Q, profit= Take, loss=Stop)