Multiple Moving Average Dynamic Trend Strategy
Author: ChaoZhang, Date: 2023-11-23 15:40:15Tags:
Overview
The Multiple Moving Average Dynamic Trend Strategy is a quantitative trading strategy that utilizes multiple types of moving average indicators to determine the market trend and dynamically adjusts the stop loss line position. By combining different moving averages, this strategy can more comprehensively and accurately judge market trends and achieve high-win-rate trading.
Strategy Principle
This strategy mainly implements 8 different types of moving averages through custom functions, including Simple Moving Average (SMA), Exponential Moving Average (EMA), Weighted Moving Average (WMA), Triangular Moving Average (TMA), Variable Index Dynamic Average (VIDYA), Wilder’s Moving Average (WWMA), Zero-Lag Exponential Moving Average (ZLEMA) and True Strength Index (TSI). The strategy allows users to choose one of the 8 moving averages as the primary indicator.
The strategy first calculates the selected type of moving average, and then dynamically calculates the position of the upper and lower rails based on the set percentage parameter. A buy signal is triggered when the price breaks through the upper rail, and a sell signal is triggered when the price breaks through the lower rail. In addition, the strategy also tracks the crossovers between the moving average and the price as auxiliary judgment signals.
During the calculation, the strategy also judges the direction of the market trend, thereby dynamically adjusting the position of the upper and lower rails. Specifically, when an uptrend is determined, the lower rail will move up following the rising price so that the stop loss line can optimally track the rising price. When a downtrend is determined, the upper rail will move down following the falling price to reduce the stop loss point and minimize losses.
Strategy Advantages
- Utilizing 8 combined moving average indicators to judge market trends more accurately.
- Dynamically adjusting stop loss line positions to maximize profit locking and avoid reverse stop loss.
- Filtering out wrong trades caused by false breakouts using moving average and price crossovers as auxiliary signals.
- Customizable and optimizable parameters catered to different market environments.
Risks and Solutions
- Increased strategy complexity and debugging difficulty due to multiple combined indicators.
- Certain types of moving averages may underperform in specific market environments.
- Risks associated with false breakout induced erroneous trades still exist.
Solutions:
- Improve code readability through comments to facilitate inspection and debugging.
- Select moving average types or incorporate auto-selection modules based on market conditions.
- Optimize parameter settings and incorporate more auxiliary indicators to filter signals.
Optimization Directions
There is still much room to optimize this strategy:
- Incorporate auto parameter optimization modules based on changing market environments.
- Incorporate machine learning models to aid in trend determination.
- Incorporate more auxiliary judgment indicators like sentiment indices to improve strategy stability.
- Optimize stop loss mechanisms for more dynamic and precise stops.
- Expand to multi-asset pairs spread strategies to capitalize on price differentials.
Conclusion
The multiple moving average dynamic trend strategy determines market trends by combining multiple moving average indicators, and initiates trades based on price breakout signals while dynamically adjusting stop loss line positions for efficient profitability. This strategy successfully integrates the three major quantitative strategy concepts of trend following, price breakout trading, and dynamic stops, exhibiting strong stability and profitability. With further improvements in parameters optimization and pattern recognition, this strategy shows great potential for continued performance enhancement, making it a highly valuable advanced quantitative strategy worthy of focused research and application.
/*backtest
start: 2022-11-16 00:00:00
end: 2023-11-22 00:00:00
period: 1d
basePeriod: 1h
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/
//@version=4
// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// © KivancOzbilgic
//created by: @Anil_Ozeksi
//developer: ANIL ÖZEKŞİ
//author: @kivancozbilgic
strategy("Optimized Trend Tracker","OTTEx", overlay=true)
src = input(close, title="Source")
length=input(2, "OTT Period", minval=1)
percent=input(1.4, "OTT Percent", type=input.float, step=0.1, minval=0)
showsupport = input(title="Show Support Line?", type=input.bool, defval=true)
showsignalsk = input(title="Show Support Line Crossing Signals?", type=input.bool, defval=true)
showsignalsc = input(title="Show Price/OTT Crossing Signals?", type=input.bool, defval=false)
highlight = input(title="Show OTT Color Changes?", type=input.bool, defval=false)
showsignalsr = input(title="Show OTT Color Change Signals?", type=input.bool, defval=false)
highlighting = input(title="Highlighter On/Off ?", type=input.bool, defval=true)
mav = input(title="Moving Average Type", defval="VAR", options=["SMA", "EMA", "WMA", "TMA", "VAR", "WWMA", "ZLEMA", "TSF"])
Var_Func(src,length)=>
valpha=2/(length+1)
vud1=src>src[1] ? src-src[1] : 0
vdd1=src<src[1] ? src[1]-src : 0
vUD=sum(vud1,9)
vDD=sum(vdd1,9)
vCMO=nz((vUD-vDD)/(vUD+vDD))
VAR=0.0
VAR:=nz(valpha*abs(vCMO)*src)+(1-valpha*abs(vCMO))*nz(VAR[1])
VAR=Var_Func(src,length)
Wwma_Func(src,length)=>
wwalpha = 1/ length
WWMA = 0.0
WWMA := wwalpha*src + (1-wwalpha)*nz(WWMA[1])
WWMA=Wwma_Func(src,length)
Zlema_Func(src,length)=>
zxLag = length/2==round(length/2) ? length/2 : (length - 1) / 2
zxEMAData = (src + (src - src[zxLag]))
ZLEMA = ema(zxEMAData, length)
ZLEMA=Zlema_Func(src,length)
Tsf_Func(src,length)=>
lrc = linreg(src, length, 0)
lrc1 = linreg(src,length,1)
lrs = (lrc-lrc1)
TSF = linreg(src, length, 0)+lrs
TSF=Tsf_Func(src,length)
getMA(src, length) =>
ma = 0.0
if mav == "SMA"
ma := sma(src, length)
ma
if mav == "EMA"
ma := ema(src, length)
ma
if mav == "WMA"
ma := wma(src, length)
ma
if mav == "TMA"
ma := sma(sma(src, ceil(length / 2)), floor(length / 2) + 1)
ma
if mav == "VAR"
ma := VAR
ma
if mav == "WWMA"
ma := WWMA
ma
if mav == "ZLEMA"
ma := ZLEMA
ma
if mav == "TSF"
ma := TSF
ma
ma
MAvg=getMA(src, length)
fark=MAvg*percent*0.01
longStop = MAvg - fark
longStopPrev = nz(longStop[1], longStop)
longStop := MAvg > longStopPrev ? max(longStop, longStopPrev) : longStop
shortStop = MAvg + fark
shortStopPrev = nz(shortStop[1], shortStop)
shortStop := MAvg < shortStopPrev ? min(shortStop, shortStopPrev) : shortStop
dir = 1
dir := nz(dir[1], dir)
dir := dir == -1 and MAvg > shortStopPrev ? 1 : dir == 1 and MAvg < longStopPrev ? -1 : dir
MT = dir==1 ? longStop: shortStop
OTT=MAvg>MT ? MT*(200+percent)/200 : MT*(200-percent)/200
plot(showsupport ? MAvg : na, color=#0585E1, linewidth=2, title="Support Line")
OTTC = highlight ? OTT[2] > OTT[3] ? color.green : color.red : #B800D9
pALL=plot(nz(OTT[2]), color=OTTC, linewidth=2, title="OTT", transp=0)
alertcondition(cross(OTT[2], OTT[3]), title="Color ALARM", message="OTT Has Changed Color!")
alertcondition(crossover(OTT[2], OTT[3]), title="GREEN ALERT", message="OTT GREEN BUY SIGNAL!")
alertcondition(crossunder(OTT[2], OTT[3]), title="RED ALERT", message="OTT RED SELL SIGNAL!")
alertcondition(cross(MAvg, OTT[2]), title="Cross Alert", message="OTT - Support Line Crossing!")
alertcondition(crossover(MAvg, OTT[2]), title="Crossover Alarm", message="Support Line BUY SIGNAL!")
alertcondition(crossunder(MAvg, OTT[2]), title="Crossunder Alarm", message="Support Line SELL SIGNAL!")
alertcondition(cross(src, OTT[2]), title="Price Cross Alert", message="OTT - Price Crossing!")
alertcondition(crossover(src, OTT[2]), title="Price Crossover Alarm", message="PRICE OVER OTT - BUY SIGNAL!")
alertcondition(crossunder(src, OTT[2]), title="Price Crossunder Alarm", message="PRICE UNDER OTT - SELL SIGNAL!")
buySignalk = crossover(MAvg, OTT[2])
plotshape(buySignalk and showsignalsk ? OTT*0.995 : na, title="Buy", text="Buy", location=location.absolute, style=shape.labelup, size=size.tiny, color=color.green, textcolor=color.white, transp=0)
sellSignallk = crossunder(MAvg, OTT[2])
plotshape(sellSignallk and showsignalsk ? OTT*1.005 : na, title="Sell", text="Sell", location=location.absolute, style=shape.labeldown, size=size.tiny, color=color.red, textcolor=color.white, transp=0)
buySignalc = crossover(src, OTT[2])
plotshape(buySignalc and showsignalsc ? OTT*0.995 : na, title="Buy", text="Buy", location=location.absolute, style=shape.labelup, size=size.tiny, color=color.green, textcolor=color.white, transp=0)
sellSignallc = crossunder(src, OTT[2])
plotshape(sellSignallc and showsignalsc ? OTT*1.005 : na, title="Sell", text="Sell", location=location.absolute, style=shape.labeldown, size=size.tiny, color=color.red, textcolor=color.white, transp=0)
mPlot = plot(ohlc4, title="", style=plot.style_circles, linewidth=0,display=display.none)
longFillColor = highlighting ? (MAvg>OTT ? color.green : na) : na
shortFillColor = highlighting ? (MAvg<OTT ? color.red : na) : na
fill(mPlot, pALL, title="UpTrend Highligter", color=longFillColor)
fill(mPlot, pALL, title="DownTrend Highligter", color=shortFillColor)
buySignalr = crossover(OTT[2], OTT[3])
plotshape(buySignalr and showsignalsr ? OTT*0.995 : na, title="Buy", text="Buy", location=location.absolute, style=shape.labelup, size=size.tiny, color=color.green, textcolor=color.white, transp=0)
sellSignallr = crossunder(OTT[2], OTT[3])
plotshape(sellSignallr and showsignalsr ? OTT*1.005 : na, title="Sell", text="Sell", location=location.absolute, style=shape.labeldown, size=size.tiny, color=color.red, textcolor=color.white, transp=0)
showscr = input(true, title="Show Screener Label")
posX_scr = input(20, title="Pos. Label x-axis")
posY_scr = input(1, title="Pos. Size Label y-axis")
colinput = input(title="Label Color", defval="Blue", options=["White", "Black", "Red", "Green", "Yellow", "Blue"])
col = color.gray
if colinput=="White"
col:=color.white
if colinput=="Black"
col:=color.black
if colinput=="Red"
col:=color.red
if colinput=="Green"
col:=color.green
if colinput=="Yellow"
col:=color.yellow
if colinput=="Blue"
col:=color.blue
dummy0 = input(true, title = "=Backtest Inputs=")
FromDay = input(defval = 1, title = "From Day", minval = 1, maxval = 31)
FromMonth = input(defval = 1, title = "From Month", minval = 1, maxval = 12)
FromYear = input(defval = 2005, title = "From Year", minval = 2005)
ToDay = input(defval = 1, title = "To Day", minval = 1, maxval = 31)
ToMonth = input(defval = 1, title = "To Month", minval = 1, maxval = 12)
ToYear = input(defval = 9999, title = "To Year", minval = 2006)
Start = timestamp(FromYear, FromMonth, FromDay, 00, 00)
Finish = timestamp(ToYear, ToMonth, ToDay, 23, 59)
Timerange() => true
if buySignalk
strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long,when=Timerange())
if sellSignallk
strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short,when=Timerange())
// t1=input('EURUSD', title='Symbol 01',type=input.symbol)
// t2=input('XAUUSD', title='Symbol 02',type=input.symbol)
// t3=input('AMZN', title='Symbol 03',type=input.symbol)
// t4=input('TSLA', title='Symbol 04',type=input.symbol)
// t5=input('BTCUSDT', title='Symbol 05',type=input.symbol)
// t6=input('ETHBTC', title='Symbol 06',type=input.symbol)
// t7=input('XBTUSD', title='Symbol 07',type=input.symbol)
// t8=input('XRPBTC', title='Symbol 08',type=input.symbol)
// t9=input('THYAO', title='Symbol 09',type=input.symbol)
// t10=input('GARAN', title='Symbol 10',type=input.symbol)
// t11=input('', title='Symbol 11',type=input.symbol)
// t12=input('', title='Symbol 12',type=input.symbol)
// t13=input('', title='Symbol 13',type=input.symbol)
// t14=input('', title='Symbol 14',type=input.symbol)
// t15=input('', title='Symbol 15',type=input.symbol)
// t16=input('', title='Symbol 16',type=input.symbol)
// t17=input('', title='Symbol 17',type=input.symbol)
// t18=input('', title='Symbol 18',type=input.symbol)
// t19=input('', title='Symbol 19',type=input.symbol)
// t20=input('', title='Symbol 20',type=input.symbol)
// OTTs(percent, length) =>
// Up=MAvg-MAvg*percent*0.01
// Dn=MAvg+MAvg*percent*0.01
// TrendUp = 0.0
// TrendUp := MAvg[1]>TrendUp[1] ? max(Up,TrendUp[1]) : Up
// TrendDown = 0.0
// TrendDown := MAvg[1]<TrendDown[1]? min(Dn,TrendDown[1]) : Dn
// Trend = 0.0
// Trend := MAvg > TrendDown[1] ? 1: MAvg< TrendUp[1]? -1: nz(Trend[1],1)
// Tsl = Trend==1? TrendUp: TrendDown
// S_Buy = Trend == 1 ? 1 : 0
// S_Sell = Trend != 1 ? 1 : 0
// [Trend, Tsl]
// [Trend, Tsl] = OTTs(percent, length)
// TrendReversal = Trend != Trend[1]
// [t01, s01] = security(t1, timeframe.period, OTTs(percent, length))
// [t02, s02] = security(t2, timeframe.period, OTTs(percent, length))
// [t03, s03] = security(t3, timeframe.period, OTTs(percent, length))
// [t04, s04] = security(t4, timeframe.period, OTTs(percent, length))
// [t05, s05] = security(t5, timeframe.period, OTTs(percent, length))
// [t06, s06] = security(t6, timeframe.period, OTTs(percent, length))
// [t07, s07] = security(t7, timeframe.period, OTTs(percent, length))
// [t08, s08] = security(t8, timeframe.period, OTTs(percent, length))
// [t09, s09] = security(t9, timeframe.period, OTTs(percent, length))
// [t010, s010] = security(t10, timeframe.period, OTTs(percent, length))
// [t011, s011] = security(t11, timeframe.period, OTTs(percent, length))
// [t012, s012] = security(t12, timeframe.period, OTTs(percent, length))
// [t013, s013] = security(t13, timeframe.period, OTTs(percent, length))
// [t014, s014] = security(t14, timeframe.period, OTTs(percent, length))
// [t015, s015] = security(t15, timeframe.period, OTTs(percent, length))
// [t016, s016] = security(t16, timeframe.period, OTTs(percent, length))
// [t017, s017] = security(t17, timeframe.period, OTTs(percent, length))
// [t018, s018] = security(t18, timeframe.period, OTTs(percent, length))
// [t019, s019] = security(t19, timeframe.period, OTTs(percent, length))
// [t020, s020] = security(t20, timeframe.period, OTTs(percent, length))
// tr01 = t01 != t01[1], up01 = t01 == 1, dn01 = t01 == -1
// tr02 = t02 != t02[1], up02 = t02 == 1, dn02 = t02 == -1
// tr03 = t03 != t03[1], up03 = t03 == 1, dn03 = t03 == -1
// tr04 = t04 != t04[1], up04 = t04 == 1, dn04 = t04 == -1
// tr05 = t05 != t05[1], up05 = t05 == 1, dn05 = t05 == -1
// tr06 = t06 != t06[1], up06 = t06 == 1, dn06 = t06 == -1
// tr07 = t07 != t07[1], up07 = t07 == 1, dn07 = t07 == -1
// tr08 = t08 != t08[1], up08 = t08 == 1, dn08 = t08 == -1
// tr09 = t09 != t09[1], up09 = t09 == 1, dn09 = t09 == -1
// tr010 = t010 != t010[1], up010 = t010 == 1, dn010 = t010 == -1
// tr011 = t011 != t011[1], up011 = t011 == 1, dn011 = t011 == -1
// tr012 = t012 != t012[1], up012 = t012 == 1, dn012 = t012 == -1
// tr013 = t013 != t013[1], up013 = t013 == 1, dn013 = t013 == -1
// tr014 = t014 != t014[1], up014 = t014 == 1, dn014 = t014 == -1
// tr015 = t015 != t015[1], up015 = t015 == 1, dn015 = t015 == -1
// tr016 = t016 != t016[1], up016 = t016 == 1, dn016 = t016 == -1
// tr017 = t017 != t017[1], up017 = t017 == 1, dn017 = t017 == -1
// tr018 = t018 != t018[1], up018 = t018 == 1, dn018 = t018 == -1
// tr019 = t019 != t019[1], up019 = t019 == 1, dn019 = t019 == -1
// tr020 = t020 != t020[1], up020 = t020 == 1, dn020 = t020 == -1
// pot_label = 'Potential Reversal: \n'
// pot_label := tr01 ? pot_label + t1 + '\n' : pot_label
// pot_label := tr02 ? pot_label + t2 + '\n' : pot_label
// pot_label := tr03 ? pot_label + t3 + '\n' : pot_label
// pot_label := tr04 ? pot_label + t4 + '\n' : pot_label
// pot_label := tr05 ? pot_label + t5 + '\n' : pot_label
// pot_label := tr06 ? pot_label + t6 + '\n' : pot_label
// pot_label := tr07 ? pot_label + t7 + '\n' : pot_label
// pot_label := tr08 ? pot_label + t8 + '\n' : pot_label
// pot_label := tr09 ? pot_label + t9 + '\n' : pot_label
// pot_label := tr010 ? pot_label + t10 + '\n' : pot_label
// pot_label := tr011 ? pot_label + t11 + '\n' : pot_label
// pot_label := tr012 ? pot_label + t12 + '\n' : pot_label
// pot_label := tr013 ? pot_label + t13 + '\n' : pot_label
// pot_label := tr014 ? pot_label + t14 + '\n' : pot_label
// pot_label := tr015 ? pot_label + t15 + '\n' : pot_label
// pot_label := tr016 ? pot_label + t16 + '\n' : pot_label
// pot_label := tr017 ? pot_label + t17 + '\n' : pot_label
// pot_label := tr018 ? pot_label + t18 + '\n' : pot_label
// pot_label := tr019 ? pot_label + t19 + '\n' : pot_label
// pot_label := tr020 ? pot_label + t20 + '\n' : pot_label
// scr_label = 'Confirmed Reversal: \n'
// scr_label := tr01[1] ? scr_label + t1 + '\n' : scr_label
// scr_label := tr02[1] ? scr_label + t2 + '\n' : scr_label
// scr_label := tr03[1] ? scr_label + t3 + '\n' : scr_label
// scr_label := tr04[1] ? scr_label + t4 + '\n' : scr_label
// scr_label := tr05[1] ? scr_label + t5 + '\n' : scr_label
// scr_label := tr06[1] ? scr_label + t6 + '\n' : scr_label
// scr_label := tr07[1] ? scr_label + t7 + '\n' : scr_label
// scr_label := tr08[1] ? scr_label + t8 + '\n' : scr_label
// scr_label := tr09[1] ? scr_label + t9 + '\n' : scr_label
// scr_label := tr010[1] ? scr_label + t10 + '\n' : scr_label
// scr_label := tr011[1] ? scr_label + t11 + '\n' : scr_label
// scr_label := tr012[1] ? scr_label + t12 + '\n' : scr_label
// scr_label := tr013[1] ? scr_label + t13 + '\n' : scr_label
// scr_label := tr014[1] ? scr_label + t14 + '\n' : scr_label
// scr_label := tr015[1] ? scr_label + t15 + '\n' : scr_label
// scr_label := tr016[1] ? scr_label + t16 + '\n' : scr_label
// scr_label := tr017[1] ? scr_label + t17 + '\n' : scr_label
// scr_label := tr018[1] ? scr_label + t18 + '\n' : scr_label
// scr_label := tr019[1] ? scr_label + t19 + '\n' : scr_label
// scr_label := tr020[1] ? scr_label + t20 + '\n' : scr_label
// up_label = 'Uptrend: \n'
// up_label := up01[1] ? up_label + t1 + '\n' : up_label
// up_label := up02[1] ? up_label + t2 + '\n' : up_label
// up_label := up03[1] ? up_label + t3 + '\n' : up_label
// up_label := up04[1] ? up_label + t4 + '\n' : up_label
// up_label := up05[1] ? up_label + t5 + '\n' : up_label
// up_label := up06[1] ? up_label + t6 + '\n' : up_label
// up_label := up07[1] ? up_label + t7 + '\n' : up_label
// up_label := up08[1] ? up_label + t8 + '\n' : up_label
// up_label := up09[1] ? up_label + t9 + '\n' : up_label
// up_label := up010[1] ? up_label + t10 + '\n' : up_label
// up_label := up011[1] ? up_label + t11 + '\n' : up_label
// up_label := up012[1] ? up_label + t12 + '\n' : up_label
// up_label := up013[1] ? up_label + t13 + '\n' : up_label
// up_label := up014[1] ? up_label + t14 + '\n' : up_label
// up_label := up015[1] ? up_label + t15 + '\n' : up_label
// up_label := up016[1] ? up_label + t16 + '\n' : up_label
// up_label := up017[1] ? up_label + t17 + '\n' : up_label
// up_label := up018[1] ? up_label + t18 + '\n' : up_label
// up_label := up019[1] ? up_label + t19 + '\n' : up_label
// up_label := up020[1] ? up_label + t20 + '\n' : up_label
// dn_label = 'Downtrend: \n'
// dn_label := dn01[1] ? dn_label + t1 + '\n' : dn_label
// dn_label := dn02[1] ? dn_label + t2 + '\n' : dn_label
// dn_label := dn03[1] ? dn_label + t3 + '\n' : dn_label
// dn_label := dn04[1] ? dn_label + t4 + '\n' : dn_label
// dn_label := dn05[1] ? dn_label + t5 + '\n' : dn_label
// dn_label := dn06[1] ? dn_label + t6 + '\n' : dn_label
// dn_label := dn07[1] ? dn_label + t7 + '\n' : dn_label
// dn_label := dn08[1] ? dn_label + t8 + '\n' : dn_label
// dn_label := dn09[1] ? dn_label + t9 + '\n' : dn_label
// dn_label := dn010[1] ? dn_label + t10 + '\n' : dn_label
// dn_label := dn011[1] ? dn_label + t11 + '\n' : dn_label
// dn_label := dn012[1] ? dn_label + t12 + '\n' : dn_label
// dn_label := dn013[1] ? dn_label + t13 + '\n' : dn_label
// dn_label := dn014[1] ? dn_label + t14 + '\n' : dn_label
// dn_label := dn015[1] ? dn_label + t15 + '\n' : dn_label
// dn_label := dn016[1] ? dn_label + t16 + '\n' : dn_label
// dn_label := dn017[1] ? dn_label + t17 + '\n' : dn_label
// dn_label := dn018[1] ? dn_label + t18 + '\n' : dn_label
// dn_label := dn019[1] ? dn_label + t19 + '\n' : dn_label
// dn_label := dn020[1] ? dn_label + t20 + '\n' : dn_label
// f_colorscr (_valscr ) =>
// _valscr ? #00000000 : na
// f_printscr (_txtscr ) =>
// var _lblscr = label(na),
// label.delete(_lblscr ),
// _lblscr := label.new(
// time + (time-time[1])*posX_scr ,
// ohlc4[posY_scr],
// _txtscr ,
// xloc.bar_time,
// yloc.price,
// f_colorscr ( showscr ),
// textcolor = showscr ? col : na,
// size = size.normal,
// style=label.style_label_center
// )
// f_printscr ( scr_label + '\n' + pot_label +'\n' + up_label + '\n' + dn_label)
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