穿越时空的莫非指标策略
Author: ChaoZhang, Date: 2024-01-23 14:46:55Tags:
概述
这是一个利用莫非指标识别市场中的“大鲨鱼”的简单量化策略。它适用于5分钟时间框架,主要用于加密货币交易。
策略原理
该策略使用长度为3的莫非指标,将超买线设定为100,超卖线设定为0。策略等待莫非指标达到超买水平,表明市场中有“大鲨鱼”的存在。如果当天前两个莫非指标超买点,价格仍能保持涨势,那么这是一个多头入场信号。
当莫非指标=100并且下根K线为大阳线时,做多入场。止损线设定为该交易日的最低点,止盈在入场后60分钟内。
对于做空方面,可以使用镜像逻辑。即莫非指标达到超卖时,下根K线为大阴线时,做空入场。
策略优势
使用莫非指标可以有效识别市场中“大鲨鱼”积累潜力股的行为,这类股票有继续上涨的可能。
利用K线实体识别力度较强的突破点,可以过滤许多假突破。
结合SMA滤波器,避免买入趋势下跌的股票,可有效减少交易风险。
使用日内超短线操作方法,60分钟止盈可以迅速锁定利润,降低回撤概率。
策略风险
莫非指标可能会生成假信号,导致不必要的亏损。可以适当调整参数或添加其他指标进行过滤。
60分钟超短线操作 METHOD 可能过于激进,不适合波动率较高的股票。可以适当调整止盈时间或者使用移动止损来优化。
没有考虑到重大的宏观经济事件发生时带来的市场冲击风险。这时应暂停策略,待市场恢复稳定后继续交易。
策略优化方向
可以测试不同参数组合,如调整莫非指标长度,优化SMA周期参数等。
尝试添加其他指标进行组合,如BOLL通道、KD指标等,看是否可以提高信号的准确性。
测试适当放宽止损幅度,是否可以获得更大的单笔利润。
尝试基于该策略框架开发适用于其他周期的版本,如15分钟或30分钟版本。
总结
该策略整体来说非常简洁且容易理解,基本思路与经典的跟踪“大鲨鱼”思路一致。通过识别莫非指标超买超卖的关键点,配合K线实体筛选,可以过滤许多噪声。SMA滤波器的添加也进一步提高了策略的稳定性。
60分钟超短线操作方式可以快速获利,但也带来了较高的操作风险。整体而言,这是一个非常有实战价值的量化策略模板,值得深入研究与优化,也为我们提供了宝贵的策略开发思路。
/*backtest
start: 2024-01-15 00:00:00
end: 2024-01-22 00:00:00
period: 1m
basePeriod: 1m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/
// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// From "Crypto Day Trading Strategy" PDF file.
// * I'm using a SMA filter to avoid buying when the price is declining. Time frame was better at 15 min according to my test.
// 1 - Apply the 3 period Money Flow Index indicator to the 5 minute chart, using 0 and 100 as our oversold and overbought boundaries
// 2 - Wait for the MFI to reach overbought levels, that indicates the presence of "big sharks" in the market. Price needs to hold up
// the first two MFI overbought occurrences of the day to be considered as a bullish entry signal.*
// 3 - We buy when the MFI = 100 and the next candle is a bullish candle with short wicks.
// 4 - We place our Stop Loss below the low of the trading day and we Take Profit during the first 60 minutes after taking the trade.
// The logic above can be used in a mirrored fashion to take short entries, this is a custom parameter that can be modified from
// the strategy Inputs panel.
// © tweakerID
//@version=4
strategy("Money Flow Index 5 min Strategy",
overlay=true )
direction = input(0, title = "Strategy Direction", type=input.integer, minval=-1, maxval=1)
strategy.risk.allow_entry_in(direction == 0 ? strategy.direction.all : (direction < 0 ? strategy.direction.short : strategy.direction.long))
/////////////////////// STRATEGY INPUTS ////////////////////////////////////////
title1=input(true, "-----------------Strategy Inputs-------------------")
i_MFI = input(3, title="MFI Length")
OB=input(100, title="Overbought Level")
OS=input(0, title="Oversold Level")
barsizeThreshold=input(.5, step=.05, minval=.1, maxval=1, title="Bar Body Size, 1=No Wicks")
i_MAFilter = input(true, title="Use MA Trend Filter")
i_MALen = input(80, title="MA Length")
i_timedexit=input(false, title="Use 60 minutes exit rule")
short=input(true, title="Use Mirrored logic for Shorts")
/////////////////////// BACKTESTER /////////////////////////////////////////////
title2=input(true, "-----------------General Inputs-------------------")
// Backtester General Inputs
i_SL=input(true, title="Use Stop Loss and Take Profit")
i_SLType=input(defval="Strategy Stop", title="Type Of Stop", options=["Strategy Stop", "Swing Lo/Hi", "ATR Stop"])
i_SPL=input(defval=10, title="Swing Point Lookback")
i_PercIncrement=input(defval=3, step=.1, title="Swing Point SL Perc Increment")*0.01
i_ATR = input(14, title="ATR Length")
i_ATRMult = input(5, step=.1, title="ATR Multiple")
i_TPRRR = input(2.2, step=.1, title="Take Profit Risk Reward Ratio")
TS=input(false, title="Trailing Stop")
// Bought and Sold Boolean Signal
bought = strategy.position_size > strategy.position_size[1]
or strategy.position_size < strategy.position_size[1]
// Price Action Stop and Take Profit
LL=(lowest(i_SPL))*(1-i_PercIncrement)
HH=(highest(i_SPL))*(1+i_PercIncrement)
LL_price = valuewhen(bought, LL, 0)
HH_price = valuewhen(bought, HH, 0)
entry_LL_price = strategy.position_size > 0 ? LL_price : na
entry_HH_price = strategy.position_size < 0 ? HH_price : na
tp=strategy.position_avg_price + (strategy.position_avg_price - entry_LL_price)*i_TPRRR
stp=strategy.position_avg_price - (entry_HH_price - strategy.position_avg_price)*i_TPRRR
// ATR Stop
ATR=atr(i_ATR)*i_ATRMult
ATRLong = ohlc4 - ATR
ATRShort = ohlc4 + ATR
ATRLongStop = valuewhen(bought, ATRLong, 0)
ATRShortStop = valuewhen(bought, ATRShort, 0)
LongSL_ATR_price = strategy.position_size > 0 ? ATRLongStop : na
ShortSL_ATR_price = strategy.position_size < 0 ? ATRShortStop : na
ATRtp=strategy.position_avg_price + (strategy.position_avg_price - LongSL_ATR_price)*i_TPRRR
ATRstp=strategy.position_avg_price - (ShortSL_ATR_price - strategy.position_avg_price)*i_TPRRR
// Strategy Stop
DayStart = time == timestamp("UTC", year, month, dayofmonth, 0, 0, 0)
plot(DayStart ? 1e9 : na, style=plot.style_columns, color=color.silver, transp=80, title="Trade Day Start")
float LongStop = valuewhen(DayStart,low,0)*(1-i_PercIncrement)
float ShortStop = valuewhen(DayStart,high,0)*(1+i_PercIncrement)
float StratTP = strategy.position_avg_price + (strategy.position_avg_price - LongStop)*i_TPRRR
float StratSTP = strategy.position_avg_price - (ShortStop - strategy.position_avg_price)*i_TPRRR
/////////////////////// STRATEGY LOGIC /////////////////////////////////////////
MFI=mfi(close,i_MFI)
barsize=high-low
barbodysize=close>open?(open-close)*-1:(open-close)
shortwicksbar=barbodysize>barsize*barsizeThreshold
SMA=sma(close, i_MALen)
MAFilter=close > SMA
timesinceentry=(time - valuewhen(bought, time, 0)) / 60000
timedexit=timesinceentry == 60
BUY = MFI[1] == OB and close > open and shortwicksbar and (i_MAFilter ? MAFilter : true)
bool SELL = na
if short
SELL := MFI[1] == OS and close < open and shortwicksbar and (i_MAFilter ? not MAFilter : true)
//Debugging Plots
plot(timesinceentry, transp=100, title="Time Since Entry")
//Trading Inputs
DPR=input(true, "Allow Direct Position Reverse")
reverse=input(false, "Reverse Trades")
// Entries
if reverse
if not DPR
strategy.entry("long", strategy.long, when=SELL and strategy.position_size == 0)
strategy.entry("short", strategy.short, when=BUY and strategy.position_size == 0)
else
strategy.entry("long", strategy.long, when=SELL)
strategy.entry("short", strategy.short, when=BUY)
else
if not DPR
strategy.entry("long", strategy.long, when=BUY and strategy.position_size == 0)
strategy.entry("short", strategy.short, when=SELL and strategy.position_size == 0)
else
strategy.entry("long", strategy.long, when=BUY)
strategy.entry("short", strategy.short, when=SELL)
if i_timedexit
strategy.close_all(when=timedexit)
SL= i_SLType == "Swing Lo/Hi" ? entry_LL_price : i_SLType == "ATR Stop" ? LongSL_ATR_price : LongStop
SSL= i_SLType == "Swing Lo/Hi" ? entry_HH_price : i_SLType == "ATR Stop" ? ShortSL_ATR_price : ShortStop
TP= i_SLType == "Swing Lo/Hi" ? tp : i_SLType == "ATR Stop" ? ATRtp : StratTP
STP= i_SLType == "Swing Lo/Hi" ? stp : i_SLType == "ATR Stop" ? ATRstp : StratSTP
//TrailingStop
dif=(valuewhen(strategy.position_size>0 and strategy.position_size[1]<=0, high,0))
-strategy.position_avg_price
trailOffset = strategy.position_avg_price - SL
var tstop = float(na)
if strategy.position_size > 0
tstop := high- trailOffset - dif
if tstop<tstop[1]
tstop:=tstop[1]
else
tstop := na
StrailOffset = SSL - strategy.position_avg_price
var Ststop = float(na)
Sdif=strategy.position_avg_price-(valuewhen(strategy.position_size<0
and strategy.position_size[1]>=0, low,0))
if strategy.position_size < 0
Ststop := low+ StrailOffset + Sdif
if Ststop>Ststop[1]
Ststop:=Ststop[1]
else
Ststop := na
strategy.exit("TP & SL", "long", limit=TP, stop=TS? tstop : SL, when=i_SL)
strategy.exit("TP & SL", "short", limit=STP, stop=TS? Ststop : SSL, when=i_SL)
/////////////////////// PLOTS //////////////////////////////////////////////////
plot(i_SL and strategy.position_size > 0 and not TS ? SL : i_SL and strategy.position_size > 0 and TS ? tstop : na , title='SL', style=plot.style_cross, color=color.red)
plot(i_SL and strategy.position_size < 0 and not TS ? SSL : i_SL and strategy.position_size < 0 and TS ? Ststop : na , title='SSL', style=plot.style_cross, color=color.red)
plot(i_SL and strategy.position_size > 0 ? TP : na, title='TP', style=plot.style_cross, color=color.green)
plot(i_SL and strategy.position_size < 0 ? STP : na, title='STP', style=plot.style_cross, color=color.green)
// Draw price action setup arrows
plotshape(BUY ? 1 : na, style=shape.triangleup, location=location.belowbar,
color=color.green, title="Bullish Setup", size=size.auto)
plotshape(SELL ? 1 : na, style=shape.triangledown, location=location.abovebar,
color=color.red, title="Bearish Setup", size=size.auto)
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