基于多指标的趋势跟踪策略

Author: ChaoZhang, Date: 2024-01-30 17:51:04
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基于多指标的趋势跟踪策略

概述

该策略通过结合多个指标来识别趋势,并设定趋势追踪止损来锁定利润。主要使用布林带、RSI、ADX等指标判断入场时机,以及ATR和布林带进行止损。

策略原理

策略主要判断指标为布林带、RSI和ADX。当价格接近布林带下轨且RSI低于30时判断为超卖,做多;当价格接近布林带上轨且RSI高于70时判断为超买,做空。此外,如果ADX高于25则判断趋势形成,这时做多做空信号更有效。

在开仓后,策略使用ATR指标和布林带上下轨来进行止损。具体来说,ATR用于最大止损幅度,当价格触及最大止损点则止损;布林带上下轨用于设置追踪止损点,根据价格运行情况实时更新追踪止损价格。

优势分析

该策略结合多指标判断,能有效识别趋势;并使用止损机制来锁定利润,降低亏损风险,属于比较稳健的策略。具体优势如下:

  1. 使用布林带判断超买超卖情况,可判断反转机会
  2. 结合RSI指标可以增加判断准确度
  3. ADX指标判断趋势形成,确保交易方向正确
  4. ATR和布林带追踪止损,可以最大程度锁定利润

风险分析

该策略也存在一些风险:

  1. 多指标判断,参数设置易过优化
  2. 布林带区间较宽时,超买超卖信号效果差
  3. 止损追踪不当可导致亏损扩大

针对这些风险,我们可以采取以下措施:

  1. 多组合参数优化,防止过优化
  2. 根据市场波动情况调整布林带参数
  3. 测试止损距离参数,确保可以承受正常波动

优化方向

该策略还可以从以下几个方向进行优化:

  1. 增加仓位控制,根据止损乘数调整仓位规模
  2. 增加money management模块,严格控制单笔止损额度
  3. 测试其他止损指标,如DMI、Envelop等
  4. 增加机器学习模型判断趋势概率,提高效果

总结

该策略整体来说是一个相对稳健的趋势追踪策略。通过多指标判断确定趋势方向,并采用止损措施控制风险,可以获得比较好的收益回报率。我们也提出了几个可以优化的方向,若进一步优化可以获得更好的效果。


/*backtest
start: 2023-12-01 00:00:00
end: 2023-12-31 23:59:59
period: 2h
basePeriod: 15m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

//@version=3
// THIS SCRIPT IS MEANT TO ACCOMPANY COMMAND EXECUTION BOTS
// THE INCLUDED STRATEGY IS NOT MEANT FOR LIVE TRADING
// THIS STRATEGY IS PURELY AN EXAMLE TO START EXPERIMENTATING WITH YOUR OWN IDEAS
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

// comment out the next line to use this script as an alert script
strategy(title="Dragon Bot - Default Script", overlay=true)
// remove the // in the next line to use this script as an alert script
// study(title="Dragon Bot - Default Script", overlay=true)

// Dragon-Bot default script version 2.0
// This can also be used with bot that reacts to tradingview alerts.
// Use the script as "strategy" for backtesting
// Comment out line 8 and de-comment line 10 to be able to set tradingview alerts.
// You should also comment out (place // before it) the lines 360, 364, 368 and 372 (strategy.entry and strategy.close) to be able to set the alerts.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
// In this first part of the script we setup variables and make sure the script keeps all information it used in the past. //
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
longs = 0
longs := nz(longs[1])

shorts = 0
shorts := nz(shorts[1])

buyprice = 0.0
buyprice := buyprice[1]

sellprice = 0.0
sellprice := sellprice[1]

scaler = 0.0
scaler := scaler[1]

sellprofit = input(1.0, minval=0.0, step=0.1, title="main strat profit")
sellproffinal = sellprofit/100

enable_shorts = input(1, minval=0, maxval=1, title="Shorts on/off")

enable_flipping = input(0, minval=0, maxval=1, title="Flipping on/off -> Go directly from long -> short or short -> long without closing ")

enable_stoploss = input(0, minval=0, maxval=1, title="Stoploss on/off")
sellstoploss = input(30.0, minval=0.0, step=1.0, title="Stoploss %")
sellstoplossfinal = sellstoploss/100

enable_trailing = input(1, minval=0, maxval=1, title="Trailing on/off")
enable_trailing_ATR = input(1, minval=0, maxval=1, title="Trailing use ATR on/off")
ATR_Multi = input(1.0, minval=0.0, step=0.1, title="Multiplier for ATR")
selltrailing = input(10.0, minval=0.0, step=1.0, title="Trailing %")
selltrailingfinal = selltrailing/100

Backtestdate = input(0, minval=0, maxval=1, title="backtest date on/off")

// Component Code by pbergden - Start backtest dates
// The following code snippet is taken from an example by pbergen
// All rights to this snippet remain with pbergden
testStartYear = input(2018, "Backtest Start Year")
testStartMonth = input(1, "Backtest Start Month")
testStartDay = input(1, "Backtest Start Day")
testPeriodStart = timestamp(testStartYear,testStartMonth,testStartDay,0,0)

testStopYear = input(2019, "Backtest Stop Year")
testStopMonth = input(1, "Backtest Stop Month")
testStopDay = input(1, "Backtest Stop Day")
testPeriodStop = timestamp(testStopYear,testStopMonth,testStopDay,0,0)

// A switch to control background coloring of the test period
testPeriodBackground = input(title="Color Background?", type=bool, defval=true)
testPeriodBackgroundColor = testPeriodBackground and (time >= testPeriodStart) and (time <= testPeriodStop) ? #00FF00 : na
bgcolor(testPeriodBackgroundColor, transp=97)

testPeriod() => true

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
// In this second part of the script we setup indicators that we can use for our actual algorithm. //
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////


//ATR
lengthtr = input(20, minval=1, title="ATR Length")
ATRsell = input(0, minval=0, title="1 for added ATR when selling")
ATR=rma(tr(true), lengthtr)
Trail_ATR=rma(tr(true), 10) * ATR_Multi
atr = 0.0
if ATRsell == 1
    atr := ATR

//OC2
lengthoc2 = input(20, minval=1, title="OC2 Length")
OC2sell = input(0, minval=0, title="1 for added OC2 when selling")
OC2mult = input(1, minval=1, title="OC2 multiplayer")
OC= abs(open[1]-close)
OC2=rma(OC, lengthoc2)
oc2 = 0.0
if OC2sell == 1
    oc2 := OC2*OC2mult

//ADX
lenadx = input(10, minval=1, title="DI Length")
lensig = input(10, title="ADX Smoothing", minval=1, maxval=50)

up = change(high)
down = -change(low)
plusDM = na(up) ? na : (up > down and up > 0 ? up : 0)
minusDM = na(down) ? na : (down > up and down > 0 ? down : 0)
trur = rma(tr, lenadx)
plus = fixnan(100 * rma(plusDM, lenadx) / trur)
minus = fixnan(100 * rma(minusDM, lenadx) / trur)
sum = plus + minus
sigadx = 100 * rma(abs(plus - minus) / (sum == 0 ? 1 : sum), lensig)

//StochRSI
smoothKRSI = input(3, minval=1)
smoothDRSI = input(3, minval=1)
lengthRSI = input(14, minval=1)
lengthStochRSI = input(14, minval=1)
srcRSI = input(close, title="RSI Source")
buyRSI = input(30, minval=1, title="RSI Buy Value")
sellRSI = input(70, minval=1, title="RSI Sell Value")
rsi1 = rsi(srcRSI, lengthRSI)
krsi = sma(stoch(rsi1, rsi1, rsi1, lengthStochRSI), smoothKRSI)
drsi = sma(krsi, smoothDRSI)

// Bollinger bands
lengthbb = input(20, minval=1)
srcbb = input(close, title="Sourcebb")
multbb = input(2.0, minval=0.001, maxval=50)
bb_buy_value = input(0.5, step=0.1, title="BB Buy Value")
bb_sell_value = input(0.5, step=0.1, title="BB Sell Value")
basisbb = sma(srcbb, lengthbb)
devbb = multbb * stdev(srcbb, lengthbb)
upperbb = basisbb + devbb
lowerbb = basisbb - devbb
bbr = (srcbb - lowerbb)/(upperbb - lowerbb)
bbbuy = basisbb - (devbb*bb_buy_value)
bbsell = basisbb + (devbb*bb_sell_value)

//ema very short
shorter = ema(close, 2)
shorterlong = ema(close, 5)

//ema short
short = ema(close, 10)
long = ema(close, 30)

//ema long
shortday = ema(close, 110)
longday = ema(close, 360)

//ema even longer
shortlongerday = ema(close, 240)
longlongerday = ema(close, 720)

//declaring extra timeframe value
profit = request.security(syminfo.tickerid, timeframe.period, close)

        
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
// In the 3rd part of the script we define all the entries and exits //
///////// This third part is basically the acual algorithm ////////////
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

//Declaring function with the long entries
OPENLONG_funct() =>
    // You can add more buy entries to the script
    longentry1 = false
    longentry2 = false
    longentry3 = false
    longentry4 = false
    longentry5 = false
    makelong_funct = false
    if  close<bbbuy and krsi<buyRSI // You could for instance add "and shortday > longday"
        longentry1 := close>close[1]
        // longentry2 := ...
    // if another thing we want to buy on happens
        // longentry3 := ...
    //All the buy entries go above, this last variable is what the function puts out
    // if you add more entries, add them in the following list too
    makelong_funct := longentry1 or longentry2 or longentry3 or longentry4 or longentry5

//Declaring function wit the short entries
OPENSHORT_funct() =>
    // You can add more buy entries to the script
    shortentry1 = false
    shortentry2 = false
    shortentry3 = false
    shortentry4 = false
    shortentry5 = false
    makeshort_funct = false
    if  close>bbsell and krsi>sellRSI // You could for instance add "and shortday < longday"
        shortentry1 := close<close[1]
        // shortentry2 := ...
    // if another thing we want to buy on happens
        // shortentry3 := ...
    //All the buy entries go above, this last variable is what the function puts out
    // if you add more entries, add them in the following list too
    makeshort_funct := shortentry1 or shortentry2 or shortentry3 or shortentry4 or shortentry5
    
//Declaring function with the long exits
CLOSELONG_funct() =>
    // You can add more buy entries to the script
    longexit1 = false
    longexit2 = false
    longexit3 = false
    longexit4 = false
    longexit5 = false
    closelong_funct = false
    if  close>bbsell and krsi>sellRSI
        longexit1 := close<close[1]
        // longexit2 := ...
    // if another thing we want to close on on happens you can add them here...
    // longexit3 := ...
    //All the buy entries go above, this last variable is what the function puts out
    // if you add more exits, add them in the following list too
    closelong_funct := longexit1 or longexit2 or longexit3 or longexit4 or longexit5

//Declaring function wit the short exits
CLOSESHORT_funct() =>
    // You can add more buy entries to the script
    shortexit1 = false
    shortexit2 = false
    shortexit3 = false
    shortexit4 = false
    shortexit5 = false
    closeshort_funct = false
    if  close<bbsell and krsi<sellRSI
        shortexit1 := close>close[1]
        // shortexit2 := ...
    // if another thing we want to close on on happens you can add them here...
        // shortexit3 := ...
    //All the buy entries go above, this last variable is what the function puts out
    // if you add more exits, add them in the following list too
    closeshort_funct := shortexit1 or shortexit2 or shortexit3 or shortexit4 or shortexit5

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
////////////// End of "entries" and "exits" definition code /////////////////////////
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
/// In the fourth part we do the actual work, as defined in the part before this ////
////////////////////// This part does not need to be changed ////////////////////////
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

//OPEN LONG LOGIC
makelong = false
//buy with backtesting on specific dates
if Backtestdate > 0 and testPeriod()
    if (longs < 1 and shorts < 1) or (short > 0 and enable_flipping > 0 and enable_shorts > 0)
        makelong := OPENLONG_funct()

//buy without backtesting on specific dates
if Backtestdate < 1
    if (longs < 1 and shorts < 1) or (short > 0 and enable_flipping > 0 and enable_shorts > 0)
        makelong := OPENLONG_funct()
    
if makelong
    buyprice := close
    scaler := close
    longs := 1
    shorts := 0
    
//OPEN SHORT LOGIC
makeshort = false

//buy with backtesting on specific dates
if Backtestdate > 0 and testPeriod()
    if (shorts < 1 and longs < 1 and enable_shorts > 0) or (longs > 0 and enable_flipping > 0 and enable_shorts > 0)
        makeshort := OPENSHORT_funct()

//buy without backtesting on specific dates
if Backtestdate < 1
    if (shorts < 1 and longs < 1 and enable_shorts > 0) or (longs > 0 and enable_flipping > 0 and enable_shorts > 0)
        makeshort := OPENSHORT_funct()
    

if makeshort
    buyprice := close
    scaler := close
    shorts := 1
    longs := 0

//Calculating values for traling stop
if longs > 0 and enable_flipping < 1
    if close > scaler+Trail_ATR and enable_trailing_ATR > 0
        scaler := close
    if close > scaler * (1.0 + selltrailingfinal) and enable_trailing_ATR < 1
        scaler := close
if shorts > 0 and enable_flipping < 1
    if close < scaler-Trail_ATR and enable_trailing_ATR > 0
        scaler := close
    if close < scaler * (1.0 - selltrailingfinal) and enable_trailing_ATR < 1
        scaler := close
    
long_exit = false
long_security1 = false
long_security2 = false
long_security3 = false

//CLOSE LONG LOGIC
if longs > 0 and enable_flipping < 1
    if ( (buyprice + (buyprice*sellproffinal) + atr + oc2) < close) and ( (buyprice + (buyprice*sellproffinal) ) < profit)
        long_exit := CLOSELONG_funct()
//security
    if enable_stoploss > 0
        long_security1 := close < ( buyprice * (1.0 - sellstoplossfinal) )
    if enable_trailing > 0 and enable_trailing_ATR < 1
        long_security2 := close < ( scaler * (1.0 - selltrailingfinal) )
    if enable_trailing > 0 and enable_trailing_ATR > 0
        long_security2 := close < ( scaler - Trail_ATR)
        
//CLOSE LONG LOGIC
if longs > 0 and enable_flipping > 0
//security
    if enable_stoploss > 0
        long_security1 := close < ( buyprice * (1.0 - sellstoplossfinal) )
    if enable_trailing > 0 and enable_trailing_ATR < 1
        long_security2 := close < ( scaler * (1.0 - selltrailingfinal) )
    if enable_trailing > 0 and enable_trailing_ATR > 0
        long_security2 := close < ( scaler - Trail_ATR)
        
closelong = long_exit or long_security1 or long_security2 or long_security3 

short_exit = false
short_security1 = false
short_security2 = false
short_security3 = false

if closelong
    longs := 0

//CLOSE SHORT LOGIC
if shorts > 0 and enable_flipping < 1
    if ( (buyprice - (buyprice*(sellproffinal) - atr - oc2) > close) and ( (buyprice - (buyprice*sellproffinal) ) > profit) )
        short_exit := CLOSESHORT_funct()
//security
    if enable_stoploss > 0
        short_security1 := close > ( buyprice * (1.0 + sellstoplossfinal) )
    if enable_trailing > 0 and enable_trailing_ATR < 1
        short_security2 := close > ( scaler * (1.0 + selltrailingfinal) )
    if enable_trailing > 0 and enable_trailing_ATR > 0
        short_security2 := close > ( scaler + Trail_ATR)
if shorts > 0 and enable_flipping > 0
//security
    if enable_stoploss > 0
        short_security1 := close > ( buyprice * (1.0 + sellstoplossfinal) )
    if enable_trailing > 0 and enable_trailing_ATR < 1
        short_security2 := close > ( scaler * (1.0 + selltrailingfinal) )
    if enable_trailing > 0 and enable_trailing_ATR > 0
        short_security2 := close > ( scaler + Trail_ATR)
        
closeshort = short_exit or short_security1 or short_security2 or short_security3

if closeshort
    shorts := 0

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
///////////// The last section takes care of the alerts //////////////////////////////
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
plotshape(makelong, style=shape.arrowup)
alertcondition(makelong, title="openlong", message="openlong")
strategy.entry("BuyLONG", strategy.long, oca_name="DBCross", when= makelong, comment="Open Long")

plotshape(makeshort, style=shape.arrowdown)
alertcondition(makeshort, title="openshort", message="openshort")
strategy.entry("BuySHORT", strategy.short, oca_name="DBCross", when= makeshort, comment="Open Short")

plotshape(closelong, style=shape.arrowdown)
alertcondition(closelong, title="closelong", message="closelong")
strategy.close("BuyLONG", when=closelong)

plotshape(closeshort, style=shape.arrowup)
alertcondition(closeshort, title="closeshort", message="closeshort")
strategy.close("BuySHORT", when=closeshort)

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