The futures market is a zero-sum game, the money of the loser will inevitably go into the winner's pocket. I come to the futures market for a short period of time, and there is no statistic on how high the failure rate is. But I think more than 80% should be fine.
It's the opposite of instinct is the way to win! Everyone is after the right rate, you are after the odds; everyone likes to make a profit, extend a loss, you make a loss, extend a profit... does it make sense? this is the trend tracking system!
First, it applies to any parameter.
The way the system wins comes from what you call the understanding of the market, or what I call the trading philosophy, rather than the question of what parameters it relies on.
Secondly, it has to be simple.
The more complex the system, the greater the likelihood of problems. Or, there is a suspicion of over-adaptation to the market!
Third, it absolutely cannot contain a future function.
Some people say that adjusting the market high and low, trend market increase profits. These are all impossible to know in advance! You do not like this, up market do more, down market do nothing. Right? Don't fool yourself.
Those who grow up with the desire of the stock, but do not hear, do not understand, do not understand, do not do, do not do, do not do, do not do, do not do.
Fourth, less is enough, more is enough.
It's not that the more problems you consider the better. Sometimes you have time to look at the watch's theorem. Sometimes two watches can confuse you. Trading systems only consider what the market is like and this outcome, without considering the reasons why this outcome is formed.
Fifth, there is no such thing as absolute machinery.
The choice of parameters, the choice of varieties, the choice of trading signals; these cannot be quantified by the system.
Trading is divided into two parts: rules + freedom. In fact, it is not the more mechanical the better. The higher the level of a person, the more freedom he can use. Confucius said: seventy at will, without discipline. The so-called mind is freedom. The so-called rule is the rule or the system.
Don't think that simple and mechanical methods are easy to do, quite the opposite! Don't believe you try, just look at one indicator, and then act without thinking. Everyone doesn't want to be a jerk, so it's very difficult.
First, to be honest, it requires you to give up certainty! This is not easy, and I willingly accept the necessary losses after trying almost all the methods of pursuing certainty to fail. This is a mental problem, often difficult to do. I am not quite done yet. In a way, we are all beginners. With more rules, fewer minds can make a deal. On the contrary, the real masters have been able to format the formatting God has given to our mental softwares and input new instinctual programs from new ones.
Secondly, it is difficult to answer the specific operation question. Because there is no single answer, the key is to see what you are paying for. Even if we are the same trend-followers, our scale, sensitivity, etc. can not be the same. This question should be asked yourself before... suppose you use my system to face copper, and the result is a loss, this is very likely.
In my personal experience, it took me five years to know and three years to make profits. I mean, the bite-to-kill strategy is the most important stage of trend trading and the way to go. Understand? I've used the bite-to-kill strategy for eight years in the stock market, and in five of those years I couldn't do this simple method without thinking... Theoretically, the higher the level, the less dependence on one inevitable random trick. But I've done 10 years of trading and still need to rely on one inevitable random trick.
The first, (a) is that it is a sign that the boat has crashed. Second, (two) gold forks as signals; Thirdly, the point of intersection is a signal.
The advantages of the first method are that it is sensitive and can calculate the off-market position clearly. The disadvantages are that there are a large number of false signals (today's bullish tomorrow's crash).
The advantage of the third method is that there are very few false signals, and the long-term average is not the one that is easy to overturn. The disadvantage is that it is slow, and it is difficult to calculate a clear exit point when re-opening.
The second method is more compromise, and the number of false signals is acceptable, although the off-market point cannot be calculated accurately, but it is similar.
I'm saying this to say that the false signal ratio of the 10-day break is much higher than the 5-day, 10-day deadline. So if we use the 5-day or 10-day cross as a mechanical buy and sell signal, then the number of consecutive losses may be more than seven times. Are you willing to accept a loss of more than seven consecutive losses, which are not the extremes.