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Investing in winners: the secret to counter-intuitive thinking

Author: Inventors quantify - small dreams, Created: 2016-12-03 16:22:43, Updated:

Investing in winners: the secret to counter-intuitive thinking


  • Intuition

    The trend of the K-line indicates that the ticket is showing signs of a breakthrough!

    Oh yeah, breach means lift space is open, and there's gonna be a storm behind it.

    You know what happened afterwards, I paid my tuition.

    • When the first batch of Da Blue Chips was just started, the market shouted for the weight of the stage, the ticket was about to sing a song, but finally found out that the pigs on the vent were a herd of big elephants; when the transfer was started, someone bet public funds high only to transfer the expected transfer, but finally found out that the big shareholders were laughing at you so naive...

    • When I tell you that I have a 50 and a 100 bill, you can just take the 50, but if you want the 100, you throw a coin, and there's not a cent on the other side, and you say you don't want to throw a coin.

    • If we are betting and you lose, the first option is to give 50 yuan directly, the second option is to toss a coin and half of the money is not needed, and if it is the other way around, you give me 100 bucks, at which point you firmly tell me that you are going to toss a coin!

    • In the stock market, a shareholder who is in a hurry to sell a stock that has risen a little or who has only made up the shortfall and then becomes a long-term investor is also a reasonable choice based on the above.

  • Why is it that some choices that seem logical at first, end up feeling like something is wrong?

    In the last two weeks, I've talked about the nature of the market, and I've also told you that the winners of the market are the ones who create scarce emotional profits through resonance effects, and today I'm talking about the defensive part, which has a word for it, but I'd rather explain it from the perspective of behavioral psychology and thinking.

    Let's start with a scene: The day you watched a Steve Jobs blog, you were eager to tell your partner how he focused on product development, and he said that Steve Jobs succeeded not because he understood the needs, but because the air was filled with embarrassment.

    We are born hating complexity, so using our intuition from past experiences to simply explain this complex world is our instinct. So the above scenarios happen every day in our lives, and Puma X is making money because he is on the Internet, and Puma X is making money because of his dad...

    This behavior reflects the human gene for laziness, and the brain's tendency to think in a straight line is also based on this:

    So this is equal to 2 times 0.8. So this is going to be equal to 2. X is equal to?

    This is the first time that we ask for Y, and then we substitute the formula ((2) for X, at which point Y = 7.4, X =, finding that there are decimal points that are difficult to count. But if you look carefully, you can easily find that x = 1.

    Relying on past intuitive experience to solve a problem is the most common way of thinking, so we will ask Y to re-calculate X without thinking. I believe we all have experienced this problem, during school, some problems are difficult to solve, but do not know how the teacher spells it.

  • In the stock market, the following confusion can arise:

    I'm going to buy it, I'm going to do a strong pullback, but why hasn't the latest Dragon ever looked back? I'm not saying that the weight of the ticket will be lifted, but why is my ticket being violently strangled? Hey, this stock meets the conditions of the leader, but why did I buy it? ...and the people

    These operations, which seem to be doing nothing wrong and are in line with the view of mainstream professionals, but why are they always a little bit worse?

    This is because the straight-line way of thinking that conforms to intuition makes us think very comfortably and quickly, so when the reality shows some signals that correspond to your intuitive conditions, your intuitive thinking is automatically triggered, at which point the conditions are reflected like a machine. But since the stock market is an anti-human game, if you stick to this way of thinking, you will find that sometimes losses are severe.

    After all these years in the stock market, the tricks seem to be easy to learn, but why do some people keep losing while others keep gaining?

    This is a manifestation of counterintuitive thinking. It is well known that people's intuitive thinking must always start from their own perspective, the most typical example being the model of the quarrel: A: Mom, why don't you listen to me? B: Mom, why did you say I don't care about you mom? A: Mom, you're blaming my mom.

    The best way to resolve such a scenario is to think from the perspective of the other person, rather than from the perspective of the self. This way of thinking seems simple, but it is quite difficult to do. So in the stock market, thinking about the best interests of the money on the handset ("counter-intuitive thinking") is actually a practice that needs to be deliberately repeated.

    So, the above confusion I think most people can understand. When a stock meets the conditions of the dragon's return, without thinking about other factors, it is directly brainless to buy, so when it finally finds the cutting flesh, it rebounds, smart investors prefer to take advantage of such people; when superstition is the experience of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of the superstition of

    For the stock market, we all talk about risk prevention, often the risk referred to here is the risk of the big box, but there is also a more deadly risk that comes from our intuitive thinking, from our habits. So many times, smart investors tend to understand the nature of each tactic, understand the mechanisms of the behavior of the crowd in the market, rather than simply judging by the intuition formed by their own experience.

    Do you remember who can tell me what the main force is, it's very urgent! In that article, Liu mentioned that the top players often use quantized methods to test the winning rate, maybe people will say that the average person can not quantify at all, but in fact the quantification is not a programmatic transaction, but a simple scientific way of statistics to measure the market temperature.

    In sociology, there is something called a good system that makes bad people into good people, and the other role of quantification is equivalent to this. The laziness of human nature and the consolidation of habits are innate, and the use of subjective power to fight against such a human nature is clearly not in accordance with objective reality, so it is necessary to quantify to avoid the risks of intuitive thinking in the trading system, only then we will subconsciously go against intuitive thinking, instead of being influenced by the intrusion of commitment consistency psychology and intuitive thinking, constantly looking for all sorts of things to convince ourselves that my current buying and selling is right.

    The counterintuitive of the stock market is that many people see it as a casino, but they console themselves that I am investing, so they cover up the common sense that already exists with their self-absorption. Finally, the Buddha says: everything is false, and you are the same.

    By observing the people who are living well, you will find that they become what they are, often because of their thinking, and in the book, the gap between the poor and the rich is in thinking, and thinking decides life. This article is the seventh article in the series, and it still focuses on thinking, hope you like it and help us forward it.


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