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Momentum Rotation Across Timeframes Trend Following Strategy

Author: ChaoZhang, Date: 2023-11-17 17:32:11
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The strategy uses a combination of moving averages over time frames to identify trend rotations on the big and medium hourly charts and to achieve low-risk trend tracking. The strategy has the advantage of being flexible in configuration, simple to implement, and highly efficient in terms of capital, and is suitable for traders who hold medium and long lines to track trends.

Basic understanding

The strategy uses three moving averages of 5, 20, and 40 days to determine a combination of ranking trends under different time frames.

Specifically, a 20-day midline crossing a 5-day fast line is considered to be a short line upward signal, and a 40-day slow line crossing a 20-day midline is considered to be a midline upward signal.

In this way, a specific entry is detected in combination with a small cycle strength based on the direction of the large cycle trend; that is, only when the large trend is homogeneous and the small cycle is strong, the position can be opened, which can effectively filter reverse false breakouts, achieving high win rate operations.

In addition, the strategy also uses ATR stop-loss to control the risk of a single transaction and further increase the profitability.

Analysis of the strengths

  • Flexible configuration, users can adjust the parameters of the moving averages to suit different varieties and trading preferences

  • It's easy to implement and easy to use for beginners.

  • Highly efficient use of funds and leverage of funds

  • Risk control and stop-loss mechanisms to effectively prevent major losses

  • Strong trend-following ability, continued profitability after the big cycle set direction

  • High winning rates, good signal quality, fewer lane changes

Risks and improvements

  • Large-cycle judgments rely on shift averages, and there is a risk of misjudgments.

  • Small cycle intensity detection with only one K-line, possibly triggered early, can be relaxed appropriately

  • Fixed stop loss, optimized for dynamic stop loss

  • Additional filtering conditions, such as transaction volume energy, may be considered.

  • Try different combinations of moving average parameters to optimize strategies

Summary

The strategy integrates multi-time frame analysis and stop loss management to achieve low-risk trend-tracking trades. By adjusting parameters, it can be applied to different varieties to meet the needs of trend-followers. Its trading decision-making is more robust and signal-efficient compared to traditional single-time frame systems. Overall, the strategy has good market adaptability and growth prospects.

Overview

This strategy uses a combination of moving averages across timeframes to identify trend rotations on the hourly, daily and weekly charts. It allows low-risk trend following trading. The strategy is flexible, simple to implement, capital efficient and suitable for medium-long term trend traders.

Trading Logic

The strategy employs 5, 20 and 40-day moving averages to determine the alignment of trends across different timeframes. Based on the consistency between larger and smaller timeframes, it identifies bullish and bearish cycles.

Specifically, the crossing of 5-day fast MA above 20-day medium MA indicates an uptrend in the short term. The crossing of 20-day medium MA above 40-day slow MA signals an uptrend in the medium term. When the fast, medium and slow MAs are positively aligned (5-day > 20-day > 40-day), it is a bull cycle. When they are negatively aligned (5-day < 20-day < 40-day), it is a bear cycle.

By determining direction from the larger cycles and confirming strength on the smaller cycles, this strategy opens positions only when major trend and minor momentum align. This effectively avoids false breakouts and achieves high win rate.

The strategy also utilizes ATR trailing stops to control single trade risks and further improve profitability.

Advantages

  • Flexible configurations to suit different instruments and trading styles

  • Simple to implement even for beginner traders

  • High capital efficiency to maximize leverage

  • Effective risk control to avoid significant losses

  • Strong trend following ability for sustained profits

  • High win rate due to robust signals and fewer whipsaws

Risks and Improvements

  • MA crossovers may lag and cause late trend detection

  • Single candle strength detection could trigger premature entry, relax condition

  • Fixed ATR stop loss, optimize to dynamic stops

  • Consider adding supplementary filters like volume

  • Explore different MA parameters for optimization

Conclusion

This strategy integrates multiple timeframe analysis and risk management for low-risk trend following trading. By adjusting parameters, it can be adapted to different instruments to suit trend traders. Compared to single timeframe systems, it makes more robust trading decisions and generates higher efficiency signals. In conclusion, this strategy has good market adaptiveness and development potential.

/*backtest
start: 2023-10-17 00:00:00
end: 2023-11-16 00:00:00
period: 1h
basePeriod: 15m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// © kgynofomo

//@version=5
strategy(title="[Salavi] | Andy Advance Pro Strategy [BTC|M15]",overlay = true, pyramiding = 1,initial_capital = 10000, default_qty_type = strategy.cash,default_qty_value = 10000)

ema_short = ta.ema(close,5)
ema_middle = ta.ema(close,20)
ema_long = ta.ema(close,40)

cycle_1 = ema_short>ema_middle and ema_middle>ema_long
cycle_2 = ema_middle>ema_short and ema_short>ema_long
cycle_3 = ema_middle>ema_long and ema_long>ema_short
cycle_4 = ema_long>ema_middle and ema_middle>ema_short
cycle_5 = ema_long>ema_short and ema_short>ema_middle
cycle_6 = ema_short>ema_long and ema_long>ema_middle

bull_cycle = cycle_1 or cycle_2 or cycle_3
bear_cycle = cycle_4 or cycle_5 or cycle_6
// label.new("cycle_1")
// bgcolor(color=cycle_1?color.rgb(82, 255, 148, 60):na)
// bgcolor(color=cycle_2?color.rgb(82, 255, 148, 70):na)
// bgcolor(color=cycle_3?color.rgb(82, 255, 148, 80):na)
// bgcolor(color=cycle_4?color.rgb(255, 82, 82, 80):na)
// bgcolor(color=cycle_5?color.rgb(255, 82, 82, 70):na)
// bgcolor(color=cycle_6?color.rgb(255, 82, 82, 60):na)

// Inputs
a = input(2, title='Key Vaule. \'This changes the sensitivity\'')
c = input(7, title='ATR Period')
h = false

xATR = ta.atr(c)
nLoss = a * xATR

src = h ? request.security(ticker.heikinashi(syminfo.tickerid), timeframe.period, close, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off) : close

xATRTrailingStop = 0.0
iff_1 = src > nz(xATRTrailingStop[1], 0) ? src - nLoss : src + nLoss
iff_2 = src < nz(xATRTrailingStop[1], 0) and src[1] < nz(xATRTrailingStop[1], 0) ? math.min(nz(xATRTrailingStop[1]), src + nLoss) : iff_1
xATRTrailingStop := src > nz(xATRTrailingStop[1], 0) and src[1] > nz(xATRTrailingStop[1], 0) ? math.max(nz(xATRTrailingStop[1]), src - nLoss) : iff_2

pos = 0
iff_3 = src[1] > nz(xATRTrailingStop[1], 0) and src < nz(xATRTrailingStop[1], 0) ? -1 : nz(pos[1], 0)
pos := src[1] < nz(xATRTrailingStop[1], 0) and src > nz(xATRTrailingStop[1], 0) ? 1 : iff_3

xcolor = pos == -1 ? color.red : pos == 1 ? color.green : color.blue

ema = ta.ema(src, 1)
above = ta.crossover(ema, xATRTrailingStop)
below = ta.crossover(xATRTrailingStop, ema)

buy = src > xATRTrailingStop and above
sell = src < xATRTrailingStop and below

barbuy = src > xATRTrailingStop
barsell = src < xATRTrailingStop




atr = ta.atr(14)
atr_length = input.int(25)
atr_rsi = ta.rsi(atr,atr_length)
atr_valid = atr_rsi>50

long_condition =  buy and bull_cycle and atr_valid
short_condition =  sell and bear_cycle and atr_valid

Exit_long_condition = short_condition
Exit_short_condition = long_condition

if long_condition
    strategy.entry("Andy Buy",strategy.long, limit=close,comment="Andy Buy Here")

if Exit_long_condition
    strategy.close("Andy Buy",comment="Andy Buy Out")
    // strategy.entry("Andy fandan Short",strategy.short, limit=close,comment="Andy 翻單 short Here")
    // strategy.close("Andy fandan Buy",comment="Andy short Out")


if short_condition
    strategy.entry("Andy Short",strategy.short, limit=close,comment="Andy short Here")


// strategy.exit("STR","Long",stop=longstoploss)
if Exit_short_condition
    strategy.close("Andy Short",comment="Andy short Out")
    // strategy.entry("Andy fandan Buy",strategy.long, limit=close,comment="Andy 翻單 Buy Here")
    // strategy.close("Andy fandan Short",comment="Andy Buy Out")




inLongTrade = strategy.position_size > 0
inLongTradecolor = #58D68D
notInTrade = strategy.position_size == 0
inShortTrade = strategy.position_size < 0

// bgcolor(color = inLongTrade?color.rgb(76, 175, 79, 70):inShortTrade?color.rgb(255, 82, 82, 70):na)
plotshape(close!=0,location = location.bottom,color = inLongTrade?color.rgb(76, 175, 79, 70):inShortTrade?color.rgb(255, 82, 82, 70):na)


plotshape(long_condition, title='Buy', text='Andy Buy', style=shape.labelup, location=location.belowbar, color=color.new(color.green, 0), textcolor=color.new(color.white, 0), size=size.tiny)
plotshape(short_condition, title='Sell', text='Andy Sell', style=shape.labeldown, location=location.abovebar, color=color.new(color.red, 0), textcolor=color.new(color.white, 0), size=size.tiny)


//atr > close *0.01* parameter

// MONTHLY TABLE PERFORMANCE - Developed by @QuantNomad
// *************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
show_performance = input.bool(true, 'Show Monthly Performance ?', group='Performance - credits: @QuantNomad')
prec = input(2, 'Return Precision', group='Performance - credits: @QuantNomad')

if show_performance
    new_month = month(time) != month(time[1])
    new_year  = year(time)  != year(time[1])
    
    eq = strategy.equity
    
    bar_pnl = eq / eq[1] - 1
    
    cur_month_pnl = 0.0
    cur_year_pnl  = 0.0
    
    // Current Monthly P&L
    cur_month_pnl := new_month ? 0.0 : 
                     (1 + cur_month_pnl[1]) * (1 + bar_pnl) - 1 
    
    // Current Yearly P&L
    cur_year_pnl := new_year ? 0.0 : 
                     (1 + cur_year_pnl[1]) * (1 + bar_pnl) - 1  
    
    // Arrays to store Yearly and Monthly P&Ls
    var month_pnl  = array.new_float(0)
    var month_time = array.new_int(0)
    
    var year_pnl  = array.new_float(0)
    var year_time = array.new_int(0)
    
    last_computed = false
    
    if (not na(cur_month_pnl[1]) and (new_month or barstate.islastconfirmedhistory))
        if (last_computed[1])
            array.pop(month_pnl)
            array.pop(month_time)
            
        array.push(month_pnl , cur_month_pnl[1])
        array.push(month_time, time[1])
    
    if (not na(cur_year_pnl[1]) and (new_year or barstate.islastconfirmedhistory))
        if (last_computed[1])
            array.pop(year_pnl)
            array.pop(year_time)
            
        array.push(year_pnl , cur_year_pnl[1])
        array.push(year_time, time[1])
    
    last_computed := barstate.islastconfirmedhistory ? true : nz(last_computed[1])
    
    // Monthly P&L Table    
    var monthly_table = table(na)
    
    if (barstate.islastconfirmedhistory)
        monthly_table := table.new(position.bottom_center, columns = 14, rows = array.size(year_pnl) + 1, border_width = 1)
    
        table.cell(monthly_table, 0,  0, "",     bgcolor = #cccccc)
        table.cell(monthly_table, 1,  0, "Jan",  bgcolor = #cccccc)
        table.cell(monthly_table, 2,  0, "Feb",  bgcolor = #cccccc)
        table.cell(monthly_table, 3,  0, "Mar",  bgcolor = #cccccc)
        table.cell(monthly_table, 4,  0, "Apr",  bgcolor = #cccccc)
        table.cell(monthly_table, 5,  0, "May",  bgcolor = #cccccc)
        table.cell(monthly_table, 6,  0, "Jun",  bgcolor = #cccccc)
        table.cell(monthly_table, 7,  0, "Jul",  bgcolor = #cccccc)
        table.cell(monthly_table, 8,  0, "Aug",  bgcolor = #cccccc)
        table.cell(monthly_table, 9,  0, "Sep",  bgcolor = #cccccc)
        table.cell(monthly_table, 10, 0, "Oct",  bgcolor = #cccccc)
        table.cell(monthly_table, 11, 0, "Nov",  bgcolor = #cccccc)
        table.cell(monthly_table, 12, 0, "Dec",  bgcolor = #cccccc)
        table.cell(monthly_table, 13, 0, "Year", bgcolor = #999999)
    
    
        for yi = 0 to array.size(year_pnl) - 1
            table.cell(monthly_table, 0,  yi + 1, str.tostring(year(array.get(year_time, yi))), bgcolor = #cccccc)
            
            y_color = array.get(year_pnl, yi) > 0 ? color.new(color.teal, transp = 40) : color.new(color.gray, transp = 40)
            table.cell(monthly_table, 13, yi + 1, str.tostring(math.round(array.get(year_pnl, yi) * 100, prec)), bgcolor = y_color, text_color=color.new(color.white, 0))
            
        for mi = 0 to array.size(month_time) - 1
            m_row   = year(array.get(month_time, mi))  - year(array.get(year_time, 0)) + 1
            m_col   = month(array.get(month_time, mi)) 
            m_color = array.get(month_pnl, mi) > 0 ? color.new(color.teal, transp = 40) : color.new(color.gray, transp = 40)
            
            table.cell(monthly_table, m_col, m_row, str.tostring(math.round(array.get(month_pnl, mi) * 100, prec)), bgcolor = m_color, text_color=color.new(color.white, 0))
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