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Adaptive Stop Loss Rail Strategi

Penulis:ChaoZhang, Tanggal: 2024-01-02 11:10:54
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Gambaran umum

Ide utama dari strategi ini adalah menggabungkan filter Kalman dan pelacakan stop loss untuk membangun rel stop loss yang disesuaikan secara dinamis. Filter Kalman digunakan untuk melacak harga dan memberikan nilai yang diprediksi. Jalur stop loss dibangun berdasarkan prediksi pada persentase tertentu untuk mencapai pelacakan harga yang dinamis. Ini memungkinkan keuntungan maksimum selama fase tren sementara stop loss tepat waktu selama pembalikan.

Seluruh strategi dapat mencapai hasil yang baik di pasar tren.

Prinsip Strategi

Strategi ini terdiri dari bagian-bagian utama berikut:

  1. Filter Kalman

    • Memprediksi harga menggunakan algoritma rekursif
    • Harga yang lancar dan memberikan nilai yang diprediksi
  2. Stop loss rail

    • Dibangun berdasarkan nilai yang diprediksi pada rasio yang ditetapkan
    • Rasio akan berkurang secara bertahap mendekati prediksi sebagai bar kemajuan
    • Stop loss ketika harga melanggar rel
  3. Piramida dan mengambil keuntungan

    • Gunakan metode martingale untuk menambahkan posisi pada kerugian
    • Atur beberapa titik keuntungan

Aliran operasi utama dari keseluruhan strategi adalah:

  1. Filter Kalman memprediksi harga
  2. Setel rel stop loss berdasarkan harga dan rasio yang diprediksi
  3. Saat harga bergerak ke arah yang menguntungkan, stop loss rail mendekati secara progresif untuk memaksimalkan keuntungan
  4. Jika harga memecahkan rel, stop loss menendang
  5. Meningkatkan ukuran posisi ke piramida kerugian
  6. Atur beberapa titik mengambil keuntungan untuk mengamankan keuntungan

Analisis Keuntungan

Keuntungan utama dari strategi ini:

  1. Menggunakan filter Kalman untuk memprediksi harga, lebih halus dan lebih akurat daripada indikator lain
  2. Adaptive stop loss rail dapat menyesuaikan berdasarkan situasi aktual untuk memaksimalkan keuntungan
  3. Piramida dan banyak mengambil keuntungan mekanisme untuk menghasilkan lebih banyak keuntungan dalam tren bergerak
  4. Parameter yang sangat dapat dikonfigurasi untuk pengaturan fleksibel

Analisis Risiko

Risiko utama dari strategi ini:

  1. StartStop dapat memicu sering dalam bergerak, meningkatkan frekuensi perdagangan dan biaya
  2. Meskipun mekanisme piramida dapat memperkuat keuntungan dalam tren, ia juga meningkatkan risiko dan DD
  3. Meskipun mengambil keuntungan ganda mengamankan keuntungan, itu juga mengurangi potensi keuntungan

Risiko dapat dikurangi dengan:

  1. Menunda perdagangan di pasar range
  2. Sesuaikan piramida dan mengambil parameter keuntungan untuk mengurangi risiko

Arah Optimalisasi

Strategi dapat dioptimalkan lebih lanjut melalui:

  1. Tambahkan filter untuk mengidentifikasi tren dan kisaran
  2. Masukkan lebih banyak indikator untuk menyaring sinyal palsu
  3. Pertimbangkan untuk membersihkan semua posisi jika kerugian melebihi ambang batas tertentu
  4. Tambahkan modul ukuran posisi
  5. Set parameter yang berbeda dapat diuji kembali dan dioptimalkan untuk pasar yang berbeda

Ringkasan

Secara singkat, strategi rel stop loss adaptif ini secara unik menggabungkan prediksi Kalman dan stop loss dinamis. Dengan penyesuaian parameter yang tepat, dapat mencapai hasil yang baik.


/*backtest
start: 2023-06-01 00:00:00
end: 2024-01-01 00:00:00
period: 1d
basePeriod: 1h
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// © BigCoinHunter

    //  ____  _        _____      _       _    _             _            
    // |  _ \(_)      / ____|    (_)     | |  | |           | |           
    // | |_) |_  __ _| |     ___  _ _ __ | |__| |_   _ _ __ | |_ ___ _ __ 
    // |  _ <| |/ _` | |    / _ \| | '_ \|  __  | | | | '_ \| __/ _ \ '__|
    // | |_) | | (_| | |___| (_) | | | | | |  | | |_| | | | | ||  __/ |   
    // |____/|_|\__, |\_____\___/|_|_| |_|_|  |_|\__,_|_| |_|\__\___|_|   
    //           __/ |                                                    
    //          |___/                                                     

//@version=5
strategy(title='Loft Strategy V4', overlay=true, 
     pyramiding=0, default_qty_type=strategy.cash, 
     default_qty_value=100, initial_capital=10000, 
     currency=currency.USD, commission_value=0.05, 
     commission_type=strategy.commission.percent, 
     process_orders_on_close=true)

//-------------- fetch user inputs ------------------
gain = input.float(title="Kalman Gain:", defval=100.0, minval=1, maxval=10000.0, step=1)
src = input(defval=close, title='Source:')

stopPercentBase = input.float(title='Beginning Approach(%)', defval=5.0, minval=0.1, maxval=30.0, step=0.1)
stopPercentMin = input.float(title='Final Approach(%)', defval=1.0, minval=0.1, maxval=30.0, step=0.1)
downStep = input.float(title='Approach Decrease Step', defval=0.001, minval=0.0, maxval = 5, step=0.001)
//stopPercentDeviation = input.float(title="Approach Deviation", defval=1.0, minval=0.1, maxval = 5.0, step=0.1)

baseOrderQty = input.float(title="Base Order Quantity", defval=100.0, minval=0.001)
maxOrderCount = input.int(title="Max Safe Order Attemp", defval=4, minval=1)
priceDeviation = input.float(title="Safe Order Deviation", defval=3, minval=1.0, step=0.1)
profitDeviation = input.float(title="Profit Deviation", defval=1.0, minval=1.0, maxval=10, step=0.1)
maxTakeProfit = input.float(title="Max Take Profit(%)", defval=25.0, maxval=100, step=0.1)
maxOrderQty = input.float(title="Max Order Quantity", defval=1.0, minval=0.01)

baseTP1 = input.float(title="TP1(%)", defval=1.0, minval=0.0, maxval=100.0, step=0.1, inline="0")
qt1     = input.int(title="QT1(%):", defval=40, minval=1, maxval=100, step=5, inline="0")

baseTP2 = input.float(title="TP2(%)", defval=3.0, minval=0.0, maxval=100.0, step=0.1, inline="1")
qt2     = input.int(title="QT2(%):", defval=30, minval=1, maxval=100, step=5, inline="1")

baseTP3 = input.float(title="TP3(%)", defval=5.0, minval=0.0, maxval=100.0, step=0.1, inline="2")
qt3     = input.int(title="QT3(%):", defval=30, minval=1, maxval=100, step=5, inline="2")

initialStopLoss = input.float(title="Stop Loss(%)", defval=0.0, minval=0.0, maxval=100.0, step=0.1)

longEntry = input.bool(defval=true, title= 'Long Entry', inline="3")
shortEntry = input.bool(defval=true, title='Short Entry', inline="3")

useSafeStop2 = input.bool(defval = true, title="Safe Stop After TP2", inline="6")
useSafeStop1 = input.bool(defval = false, title="Safe Stop After TP1", inline="6")

//---------- backtest range setup ------------
fromDay   = input.int(defval = 1, title = "From Date:", minval = 1, maxval = 31, inline="4")
fromMonth = input.int(defval = 1, title = "/", minval = 1, maxval = 12, inline="4")
fromYear  = input.int(defval = 2021, title = "/", minval = 2010, inline="4")
toDay     = input.int(defval = 30, title = "To__ Date:", minval = 1, maxval = 31, inline="5")
toMonth   = input.int(defval = 12, title = "/", minval = 1, maxval = 12, inline="5")
toYear    = input.int(defval = 2022, title = "/", minval = 2010, inline="5")

//------------ time interval setup -----------
start     = timestamp(fromYear, fromMonth, fromDay, 00, 00)  // backtest start window
finish    = timestamp(toYear, toMonth, toDay, 23, 59)        // backtest finish window
window()  => true // create function "within window of time"


//------- define the order comments ------
enterLongComment = ""
exitLongComment = ""

enterShortComment = ""
exitShortComment = ""

longTPSL = ""
longTP = ""
longSL = ""

shortTPSL = ""
shortTP = ""
shortSL = ""

//--------- Define global variables -----------
var bool long = true
var bool stoppedOutLong = false
var bool stoppedOutShort = false
var float kf = 0.0
var float velo = 0.0

var float orderQty = baseOrderQty
var float stopLoss = initialStopLoss
var bool isProfit = false
var int barindex = 1
var int winCounter = 0
var int winCounterBuffer = 0
var int failCounter = 0

var float tp1 = baseTP1
var float tp2 = baseTP2
var float tp3 = baseTP3

var bool isTakeTP1 = false
var bool isTakeTP2 = false  
var bool isTakeTP3 = false  
var bool isLastProfit = true

var float stopPercentMax = stopPercentBase
var float stopPercent = stopPercentBase
var float stopLine = 0.0

var labelColor = color.blue


//------ kalman filter calculation --------
dk = src - nz(kf[1], src)
smooth = nz(kf[1], src) + dk * math.sqrt(gain / 10000 * 2)
velo := nz(velo[1], 0) + gain / 10000 * dk
kf := smooth + velo


//--------- calculate the loft stopLoss line ---------
//stopPercentMax := isLastProfit ? stopPercentBase : (stopPercentBase * stopPercentDeviation)

if long == true
    stopLine := kf - (kf * (stopPercent / 100))
    
    if long[1] == true and stopLine <= stopLine[1]
        stopLine := stopLine[1]
    else if (long[1] == true)
        stopPercent := stopPercent - downStep
        if(stopPercent < stopPercentMin)
            stopPercent := stopPercentMin
    
    if(kf < stopLine)
        long := false
        stopPercent := stopPercentMax
        stopLine := kf + (kf * (stopPercent / 100))
        
else
    stopLine := kf + (kf * (stopPercent / 100))
    
    if long[1] == false and stopLine >= stopLine[1]
        stopLine := stopLine[1]
    else if(long[1] == false)
        stopPercent := stopPercent - downStep
        if(stopPercent < stopPercentMin)
            stopPercent := stopPercentMin
            
    if(kf > stopLine)
        long := true
        stopPercent := stopPercentMax
        stopLine := kf - (kf * (stopPercent / 100))


//------------------- determine buy and sell points ---------------------
buySignall = window() and long  and (not stoppedOutLong)
sellSignall = window() and (not long)  and (not stoppedOutShort)
                    
                    
if longEntry and shortEntry 

    if buySignall and baseTP1 <= 0.0
            
        if strategy.position_size < 0
            if close < strategy.position_avg_price
                isLastProfit := true
        else if strategy.position_size == 0
            if strategy.wintrades > winCounter //strategy.wintrades[ barindex ]
                isLastProfit := true
        else
            isLastProfit := false
        
    else if sellSignall and baseTP1 <= 0.0
        
        if strategy.position_size > 0
            if close > strategy.position_avg_price
                isLastProfit := true
        else if strategy.position_size == 0
            if strategy.wintrades > winCounter //strategy.wintrades[ barindex ]
                isLastProfit := true
        else
            isLastProfit := false
    
    else if isTakeTP2 == true
        isLastProfit := true
    else
        isLastProfit := false

else if longEntry
    if sellSignall
        winCounterBuffer := winCounter
    if buySignall
        if winCounter > winCounterBuffer
            isLastProfit := true
        else
            isLastProfit := false

else if shortEntry
    if buySignall
        winCounterBuffer := winCounter
    if sellSignall
        if winCounter > winCounterBuffer
            isLastProfit := true
        else
            isLastProfit := false
    

//------------- set the deviations ------------
var float maxOrderSize = (baseOrderQty * math.pow(priceDeviation, maxOrderCount - 1))

if buySignall or sellSignall
    
    if isLastProfit == false
    
        orderQty := orderQty * priceDeviation
        
        tp1 := tp1 * profitDeviation
        tp2 := tp2 * profitDeviation
        tp3 := tp3 * profitDeviation
        
        tp1 := math.min(tp1, maxTakeProfit)
        tp2 := math.min(tp2, maxTakeProfit)
        tp3 := math.min(tp3, maxTakeProfit)
        
        if orderQty > maxOrderSize
            failCounter := failCounter + 1
            orderQty := baseOrderQty
            tp1 := baseTP1
            tp2 := baseTP2
            tp3 := baseTP3
                
    else
        orderQty := baseOrderQty
        tp1 := baseTP1
        tp2 := baseTP2
        tp3 := baseTP3


// ----------------- put debug labels -------------------
if orderQty == maxOrderSize
    labelColor := color.red
else
    labelColor := isLastProfit ? color.lime : color.yellow

if longEntry and shortEntry
    if buySignall or sellSignall
        label.new( x=bar_index, y=high, text="Qty:"+str.tostring(math.min(orderQty, maxOrderQty))+" | Worst Case:"+str.tostring(failCounter) ,color = labelColor  )
else if longEntry
    if buySignall
        label.new( x=bar_index, y=high, text="Qty:"+str.tostring(math.min(orderQty, maxOrderQty))+" | Worst Case:"+str.tostring(failCounter) ,color = labelColor  )
else if shortEntry
    if sellSignall
        label.new( x=bar_index, y=high, text="Qty:"+str.tostring(math.min(orderQty, maxOrderQty))+" | Worst Case:"+str.tostring(failCounter) ,color = labelColor  )



//---------- execute the strategy -----------------
nz(orderQty, baseOrderQty)

if longEntry and shortEntry

    if long
        strategy.close_all( when = buySignall, comment = exitShortComment)
        strategy.entry("LONG", strategy.long, when = buySignall, qty=math.min(orderQty, maxOrderQty), comment = enterLongComment)
        stoppedOutLong := true
        stoppedOutShort := false
            
    else
        strategy.close_all(when=sellSignall, comment = exitLongComment)
        strategy.entry("SHORT", strategy.short, when = sellSignall, qty=math.min(orderQty, maxOrderQty), comment = enterShortComment)
        stoppedOutLong  := false
        stoppedOutShort := true

else if(longEntry)
    strategy.entry("LONG", strategy.long,  when = buySignall, qty=math.min(orderQty, maxOrderQty), comment = enterLongComment)
    strategy.close("LONG", when = sellSignall, comment = exitLongComment)
    if long 
        stoppedOutLong := true
        stoppedOutShort := false
    else
        stoppedOutLong  := false
        stoppedOutShort := true

else if(shortEntry)
    strategy.entry("SHORT", strategy.short, when = sellSignall, qty=math.min(orderQty, maxOrderQty), comment = enterShortComment)
    strategy.close("SHORT", when = buySignall, comment = exitShortComment)
    if not long
        stoppedOutShort := true
        stoppedOutLong  := false
    else
        stoppedOutShort := false
        stoppedOutLong := true



//--------- calculate the TP/SL entries -----------
longProfitPrice1  = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 + tp1 * 0.01)
longProfitPrice2  = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 + tp2 * 0.01)
longProfitPrice3  = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 + tp3 * 0.01)
        
shortProfitPrice1  = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 - tp1 * 0.01)
shortProfitPrice2  = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 - tp2 * 0.01)
shortProfitPrice3  = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 - tp3 * 0.01)

longStopPrice = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 - stopLoss * 0.01)
shortStopPrice = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 + stopLoss * 0.01)

shortSafeStopPrice2 = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 - 0.2 * 0.01)
longSafeStopPrice2 = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 + 0.2 * 0.01)

longSafeStopPrice1 = stopLine
shortSafeStopPrice1 = stopLine

//----------- calculate TP quantity values -----------
takeQty1 = math.min(orderQty, maxOrderQty) * qt1 / 100
takeQty2 = math.min(orderQty, maxOrderQty) * qt2 / 100
takeQty3 = math.min(orderQty, maxOrderQty) * qt3 / 100


//----------------- take profit and stop loss processes -----------------
if strategy.position_size > 0

    if close > longProfitPrice1 and tp1 > 0 and isTakeTP1 == false
        strategy.close(id="LONG", qty=takeQty1, comment = "longTP 1")
        isTakeTP1 := true
    
    if close > longProfitPrice2 and tp2 > 0 and isTakeTP2 == false
        strategy.close(id="LONG", qty=takeQty2, comment = "longTP 2")
        isTakeTP2 := true
    
    if close > longProfitPrice3 and tp3 > 0 and isTakeTP3 == false
        strategy.close(id="LONG", qty=takeQty3, comment = "longTP 3")
        isTakeTP3 := true
    
    if isTakeTP2 == true and useSafeStop2
        strategy.exit(id="LONG", stop=longSafeStopPrice2, comment = "Long Safe Stop2")
    if isTakeTP1 == true and useSafeStop1
        strategy.exit(id="LONG", stop=longSafeStopPrice1, comment = "Long Safe Stop1")
    
            
if strategy.position_size < 0

    if close < shortProfitPrice1 and tp1 > 0 and isTakeTP1 == false
        strategy.close(id="SHORT", qty=takeQty1, comment = "Short TP 1")
        isTakeTP1 := true
    
    if close < shortProfitPrice2 and tp2 > 0 and isTakeTP2 == false
        strategy.close(id="SHORT", qty=takeQty2, comment = "Short TP 2")
        isTakeTP2 := true
    
    if close < shortProfitPrice3 and tp3 > 0 and isTakeTP3 == false
        strategy.close(id="SHORT", qty=takeQty3, comment = "Short TP 3")
        isTakeTP3 := true
    
    if isTakeTP2 == true and useSafeStop2
        strategy.exit(id="SHORT", stop=shortSafeStopPrice2, comment = "Short Safe Stop2")    
    if isTakeTP1 == true and useSafeStop1
        strategy.exit(id="SHORT", stop=shortSafeStopPrice1, comment = "Short Safe Stop1")

if(initialStopLoss>0.0)
    if ( strategy.position_size > 0 )
        strategy.exit(id="LONG",  stop=longStopPrice, comment = "Long Stop Loss")

    else if ( strategy.position_size < 0 )
        strategy.exit(id="SHORT",  stop=shortStopPrice,  comment = "Short Stop Loss")
        
    
    
if buySignall or sellSignall
    
    isTakeTP1 := false
    isTakeTP2 := false  
    isTakeTP3 := false
    
    // winCounter := strategy.wintrades
    

//------------- plot charts ---------------------
lineColor1 = long ? color.green : color.red
lineColor2 = long ? color.aqua : color.fuchsia

kalmanPlot = plot(kf, color=lineColor1, linewidth=3, title = "Kalman Filter")
stopPlot = plot(stopLine, color=lineColor2, linewidth=2, title = "Stop Loss Line")












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