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Strategi Quant dengan Sinyal Stokastik, SMA Filter dan Random Stop loss/take profit

Penulis:ChaoZhang, Tanggal: 2024-01-08 16:07:02
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Gambaran umum

Strategi ini disebut DayLight Hunter Quant Strategy dengan Two-way Position, Stochastic Signal dan Random Stop loss/take profit. Ide utamanya adalah untuk menghasilkan sinyal perdagangan dengan indikator Stochastic, menyaring sinyal dengan SMA, menerapkan pembukaan posisi dua arah, dan mengatur stop loss acak dan mengambil poin keuntungan untuk mengunci keuntungan.

Logika Strategi

Strategi ini menggunakan 5-hari Stochastic Indicator %K dan %D garis crossover untuk menghasilkan sinyal perdagangan. Ketika %K melintasi %D dari bawah, sinyal beli dihasilkan. Ketika %K melintasi di bawah %D dari atas, sinyal jual dihasilkan. Untuk menyaring sinyal palsu, garis SMA 50 hari digunakan - hanya ketika harga dekat di bawah titik rendah SMA, sinyal beli berlaku; hanya ketika harga dekat di atas titik tinggi SMA, sinyal jual berlaku.

Setelah menerima sinyal beli, strategi akan membuka posisi panjang dengan kuantitas tetap. Setelah menerima sinyal jual, jika dalam mode perdagangan satu arah, ia akan menutup posisi panjang sebelumnya dan membuka posisi pendek. Jika dalam mode lindung nilai, ia hanya akan membuka posisi pendek tambahan untuk lindung nilai. Untuk setiap unit perdagangan, titik stop loss dan take profit acak ditetapkan berdasarkan persentase tertentu dari harga saat ini. Ini memungkinkan penguncian keuntungan dan pengendalian risiko.

Keuntungan

Keuntungan terbesar dari strategi ini adalah menggunakan sinyal Stochastic dengan filter SMA untuk mencapai rasio sinyal palsu yang relatif rendah dalam perdagangan dua arah. Ini memberikan lebih banyak peluang keuntungan. Selain itu, mekanisme stop loss / take profit acak memungkinkan mengambil keuntungan tepat waktu setelah menghasilkan keuntungan, menghindari mengembalikan semua keuntungan; dan memotong kerugian jika terjadi kerugian besar, untuk mengurangi kerugian. Singkatnya, strategi ini memiliki margin keuntungan yang lebih besar dan kontrol risiko yang lebih baik.

Risiko

Risiko utama dari strategi ini termasuk sinyal palsu dari indikator Stochastic dapat menyebabkan kerugian yang tidak perlu; titik stop loss / take profit acak yang tidak tepat dapat terlalu agresif, menyebabkan keluar prematur atau terlambat, mempengaruhi profitabilitas; ketidakmampuan untuk memotong kerugian tepat waktu dalam perdagangan lindung nilai dapat menyebabkan amplifikasi kerugian.

Untuk mengurangi risiko, parameter filter SMA dapat dioptimalkan untuk menyaring lebih banyak sinyal palsu. Juga pertimbangkan untuk menggabungkan indikator lain untuk menentukan tren pasar untuk menghindari perdagangan melawan tren. Akhirnya, rentang stop loss yang wajar harus ditetapkan, dan titik stop loss independen harus digunakan untuk unit lindung nilai untuk mengendalikan risiko.

Arahan Optimasi

Strategi dapat dioptimalkan dalam aspek berikut:

  1. Mengoptimalkan parameter Stochastic untuk menemukan kombinasi parameter terbaik untuk mengurangi sinyal palsu.

  2. Mengoptimalkan atau menambahkan indikator teknis lain untuk membantu Stochastic dalam menentukan tren, misalnya MACD, KD dll.

  3. Menggunakan model pembelajaran mesin untuk mempelajari metrik seperti akurasi, tingkat menang dll dari sinyal Stochastic di bawah parameter yang berbeda, untuk menemukan ruang parameter optimal.

  4. Mengoptimalkan algoritma stop loss / take profit acak untuk membuatnya lebih cerdas dan dinamis, misalnya memasukkan konsep seperti stop loss bergerak, ukuran posisi dll.

  5. Tambahkan modul ukuran posisi, memungkinkan penyesuaian posisi dinamis berdasarkan kinerja, rezim pasar dll.

Kesimpulan

DayLight Hunter Quant Strategy dengan Two-way Position, Stochastic Signal dan Random Stop loss/take profit menggabungkan sinyal crossover Stochastic, prinsip filter SMA, perdagangan dua arah dan metode stop loss/take profit random. Ini memiliki keuntungan seperti sinyal yang relatif akurat, peluang perdagangan dua arah yang melimpah, stop loss/profit taking yang fleksibel, dan risiko dalam kisaran yang dapat diterima. Optimasi lebih lanjut pada penyesuaian parameter, kombinasi indikator dan modul kontrol risiko dapat membantu mencapai kinerja yang lebih stabil dan lebih baik. Ini memberikan kasus referensi yang sangat baik untuk praktik perdagangan kuantitatif.


/*backtest
start: 2023-12-31 00:00:00
end: 2024-01-07 00:00:00
period: 15m
basePeriod: 5m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

//@version=5
var int slippage = 0
strategy("X48 - DayLight Hunter | Strategy | V.01.01", overlay=true, calc_on_order_fills = true, initial_capital = 50,default_qty_type = strategy.fixed, default_qty_value = 1, commission_type = strategy.commission.percent, commission_value = 0, currency = currency.USD, slippage = 0)

var bool hedge_mode = false
var int sto_buy = 0
var int sto_sell = 0

Trade_Mode = input.string(defval = "Hedge", title = "⚖️ Mode For Trade [Oneway / Hedge]", options = ["Oneway", "Hedge"], group = "Mode Trade", tooltip = "Oneway = Switching Position Type With Signal\nHedge Mode = Not Switching Position Type Unitl TP or SL")
Risk_Mode = input.string(defval = "Low Risk", title = "⚖️ Risk Signal Mode [Low / Medium / High]", options = ["Low Risk", "Medium Risk", "High Risk"], group = "Mode Trade", tooltip = "[[Signal Form Stochastic]]\nLow Risk is >= 80 and <= 20\nMedium Risk is >= 70 and <= 30\nHigh Risk is >= 50 and <=50")

if Trade_Mode == "Oneway"
    hedge_mode := false
else
    hedge_mode := true

if Risk_Mode == "Low Risk"
    sto_buy := 20
    sto_sell := 80
else if Risk_Mode == "Medium Risk"
    sto_buy := 30
    sto_sell := 70
else if Risk_Mode == "High Risk"
    sto_buy := 50
    sto_sell := 50

periodK = input.int(15, title="%K Length", minval=1, group = "Stochastic Setting", inline = "Sto0")
smoothK = input.int(3, title="%K Smoothing", minval=1, group = "Stochastic Setting", inline = "Sto0")
periodD = input.int(3, title="%D Smoothing", minval=1, group = "Stochastic Setting", inline = "Sto0")

SMA_Mode = input.bool(defval = true, title = "SMA High and Low Filter Mode", group = "SMA Filter Mode", tooltip = "Sell Signal With Open >= SMA High\nBuy Signal With Close <= SMA Low")
SMA_High = input.int(defval = 50, title = "SMA High", group = "SMA Filter Mode", inline = "SMA1")
SMA_Low = input.int(defval = 50, title = "SMA Low", group = "SMA Filter Mode", inline = "SMA1")

k = ta.sma(ta.stoch(close, high, low, periodK), smoothK)
d = ta.sma(k, periodD)
high_line = ta.sma(high, SMA_High)
low_line = ta.sma(low, SMA_Low)
plot(SMA_Mode ? high_line : na, "H-Line", color = color.yellow, linewidth = 2)
plot(SMA_Mode ? low_line : na, "L-Line", color = color.blue, linewidth = 2)

entrybuyprice = strategy.position_avg_price

var bool longcondition = na
var bool shortcondition = na

if SMA_Mode == true
    longcondition := ta.crossover(k,d) and d <= sto_buy and close < low_line and open < low_line// or ta.crossover(k, 20)// and close <= low_line
    shortcondition := ta.crossunder(k,d) and d >= sto_sell and close > high_line and open > high_line// or ta.crossunder(k, 80)// and close >= high_line
else
    longcondition := ta.crossover(k,d) and d <= sto_buy
    shortcondition := ta.crossunder(k,d) and d >= sto_sell
//longcondition_double = ta.crossover(d,20) and close < low_line// and strategy.position_size > 0
//shortcondition_double = ta.crossunder(d,80) and close > high_line// and strategy.position_size < 0

//=============== TAKE PROFIT and STOP LOSS by % =================

tpsl(percent) =>
    strategy.position_avg_price * percent / 100 / syminfo.mintick
GR4 = "=====🆘🆘🆘 TAKE PROFIT & STOP LOSS BY [%] 🆘🆘🆘====="
mode= input.bool(title="🆘 Take Profit & Stop Loss By Percent (%)", defval=true, group=GR4, tooltip = "Take Profit & Stop Loss by % Change\n0 = Disable")
tp_l = tpsl(input.float(0, title='🆘 TP [LONG] % >> [Oneway Only]', group=GR4, tooltip = "0 = Disable"))
tp_s = tpsl(input.float(0, title='🆘 TP [SHORT] % >> [Oneway Only]', group=GR4, tooltip = "0 = Disable"))
sl = tpsl(input.float(0, title='🆘 Stop Loss %', group=GR4, tooltip = "0 = Disable"))
tp_pnl = input.float(defval = 1, title = "🆘 TP by PNL $ eg. (0.1 = 0.1$)", group = GR4)
spread_size = input.float(defval = 0.350, title = "🆘 Spread Point Size(Eg. 35 Point or 350 Point From Your Broker Digits)", tooltip = "Spread Point Form Your Broker \nEg. 1920.124 - 1920.135 or 1920.12 - 1920.13\nPlease Check From Your Broker", group = GR4)

GR5 = "===💮💮💮 Hedge Mode 💮💮💮==="
//hedge_mode = input.bool(defval = true, title = "⚖️ Hedge Mode", group = GR5)
hedge_point = input.int(defval = 500, title = "💯 Hedge Point Range", group = GR5, tooltip = "After Entry Last Position And Current Price More Than Point Range Are Open New Hedge Position")
hedge_gale = input.float(defval = 2.0, title = "✳️ Martingale For Hedge Multiply [default = 2]", tooltip = "Martingale For Multiply Hedge Order", group = GR5)
hedge_point_size = hedge_point/100

calcStopLossPrice(OffsetPts) =>
    if strategy.position_size > 0
        strategy.position_avg_price - OffsetPts * syminfo.mintick
    else if strategy.position_size < 0
        strategy.position_avg_price + OffsetPts * syminfo.mintick
    else
        na

calcStopLossL_AlertPrice(OffsetPts) =>
    strategy.position_avg_price - OffsetPts * syminfo.mintick
calcStopLossS_AlertPrice(OffsetPts) =>
    strategy.position_avg_price + OffsetPts * syminfo.mintick

calcTakeProfitPrice(OffsetPts) =>
    if strategy.position_size > 0
        strategy.position_avg_price + OffsetPts * syminfo.mintick
    else if strategy.position_size < 0
        strategy.position_avg_price - OffsetPts * syminfo.mintick
    else
        na

calcTakeProfitL_AlertPrice(OffsetPts) =>
    strategy.position_avg_price + OffsetPts * syminfo.mintick
calcTakeProfitS_AlertPrice(OffsetPts) =>
    strategy.position_avg_price - OffsetPts * syminfo.mintick

var stoploss = 0.
var stoploss_l = 0.
var stoploss_s = 0.
var takeprofit = 0.
var takeprofit_l = 0.
var takeprofit_s = 0.
var takeprofit_ll = 0.
var takeprofit_ss = 0.

if mode == true
    if (strategy.position_size > 0)
        if sl > 0
            stoploss := calcStopLossPrice(sl)
            stoploss_l := stoploss
        else if sl <= 0
            stoploss := na
        if tp_l > 0
            takeprofit := tp_l
            takeprofit_ll := close + ((close/100)*tp_l)
            //takeprofit_s := na
        else if tp_l <= 0
            takeprofit := na
    if (strategy.position_size < 0)
        if sl > 0
            stoploss := calcStopLossPrice(sl)
            stoploss_s := stoploss
        else if sl <= 0
            stoploss := na
        if tp_s > 0
            takeprofit := tp_s
            takeprofit_ss := close - ((close/100)*tp_s)
            //takeprofit_l := na
        else if tp_s <= 0
            takeprofit := na
    else if strategy.position_size == 0
        stoploss := na
        takeprofit := na
        //takeprofit_l := calcTakeProfitL_AlertPrice(tp_l)
        //takeprofit_s := calcTakeProfitS_AlertPrice(tp_s)
        //stoploss_l := calcStopLossL_AlertPrice(sl)
        //stoploss_s := calcStopLossS_AlertPrice(sl)

//////////// INPUT BACKTEST RANGE ////////////////////////////////////////////////////
var string BTR1         = '════════⌚⌚ INPUT BACKTEST TIME RANGE ⌚⌚════════'
i_startTime             = input(defval = timestamp("01 Jan 1945 00:00 +0000"), title = "Start", inline="timestart", group=BTR1, tooltip = 'Start Backtest YYYY/MM/DD')
i_endTime               = input(defval = timestamp("01 Jan 2074 23:59 +0000"), title = "End", inline="timeend", group=BTR1, tooltip = 'End Backtest YYYY/MM/DD')
//////////////// Strategy Alert For X4815162342 BOT //////////////////////
Text_Alert_Future = '{{strategy.order.alert_message}}'
copy_Fu = input( defval= Text_Alert_Future ,    title="Alert Message for BOT", inline = '00'  ,group = '═ Bot Setting ═ \n >> If You Dont Use Bot Just Pass It' ,tooltip = 'Alert For X48-BOT > Copy and Paste To Alert Function')
TimeFrame_input = input(defval= 'Input Your TimeFrame [1m, 15m, 1h, 4h, 1d ,1w]' ,    title="TimeFrame Text Alert", inline = '00'  ,group = '═ Bot Setting ═ \n >> If You Dont Use Bot Just Pass It')
string Alert_EntryL = '🪙 Asset : {{ticker}} \n💱 Status : {{strategy.market_position}}\n🕛 TimeFrame : '+str.tostring(TimeFrame_input)+'\n💸 Price : {{strategy.order.price}} $\n✅ TP : '+str.tostring(takeprofit_ll)+' $\n❌ SL : '+str.tostring(stoploss_l)+' $\n⏰ Time : {{timenow}}'
string Alert_EntryS = '🪙 Asset : {{ticker}} \n💱 Status : {{strategy.market_position}}\n🕛 TimeFrame : '+str.tostring(TimeFrame_input)+'\n💸 Price : {{strategy.order.price}} $\n✅ TP : '+str.tostring(takeprofit_ss)+' $\n❌ SL : '+str.tostring(stoploss_s)+' $\n⏰ Time : {{timenow}}'
string Alert_TPSL = '🪙 Asset : {{ticker}}\n🕛 TimeFrame : '+str.tostring(TimeFrame_input)+'\n💹 {{strategy.order.comment}}\n💸 Price : {{strategy.order.price}} $\n⏰ Time : {{timenow}}'

if true
    if longcondition
        strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, comment = "🌙", alert_message = Alert_EntryL)
    //if longcondition_double
    //    //strategy.cancel_all()
    //    strategy.entry("Long2", strategy.long, comment = "🌙🌙")
    //    //strategy.exit("Exit",'Long', qty_percent = 100 , profit = takeprofit, stop = stoploss, comment_profit = "TP💚L", comment_loss = "SL💚L")
    if shortcondition
        strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short, comment = "👻", alert_message = Alert_EntryS)
        //strategy.exit("Exit",'Short', qty_percent = 100, profit = takeprofit, stop = stoploss, comment_profit = "TP❤️️S", comment_loss = "SL❤️️S")
    //if shortcondition_double
    //    //strategy.cancel_all()
    //    strategy.entry("Short2", strategy.short, comment = "👻👻")

if strategy.position_size > 0 and strategy.opentrades >= 1 and hedge_mode == true
    entrypricel = strategy.opentrades.entry_price(strategy.opentrades - 1)
    callpointsize =  entrypricel - close
    lastsize = strategy.position_size
    if callpointsize >= hedge_point_size and longcondition
        strategy.order("Long2", strategy.long, qty = lastsize * hedge_gale, comment = "🌙⌛", alert_message = Alert_EntryL)

else if strategy.position_size < 0 and strategy.opentrades >= 1 and hedge_mode == true
    entryprices = strategy.opentrades.entry_price(strategy.opentrades - 1)
    callpointsize = (entryprices - close)* -1
    lastsize = (strategy.position_size) * -1
    if callpointsize >= hedge_point_size and shortcondition
        strategy.order("Short2", strategy.short, qty = lastsize * hedge_gale, comment = "👻⌛", alert_message = Alert_EntryS)

last_price_l = (strategy.opentrades.entry_price(strategy.opentrades - 1) + (strategy.opentrades.entry_price(strategy.opentrades - 1)/100) * takeprofit) + spread_size
last_price_s = (strategy.opentrades.entry_price(strategy.opentrades - 1) - (strategy.opentrades.entry_price(strategy.opentrades - 1)/100) * takeprofit) - spread_size 
current_price = request.security(syminfo.tickerid, "1", close)
current_pricel = request.security(syminfo.tickerid, "1", close) + spread_size
current_prices = request.security(syminfo.tickerid, "1", close) - spread_size
//if mode == true
if strategy.position_size > 0 and strategy.openprofit >= tp_pnl and mode == true and hedge_mode == true
    lastsize = strategy.position_size
    lastprofitorder = strategy.openprofit
    //if lastprofitorder >= 0.07
    //strategy.close('Long', qty = lastsize, comment = "TP💚L", alert_message = Alert_TPSL, immediately = true)
    strategy.cancel_all()
    strategy.close_all(comment = "TP💚PNL", alert_message = Alert_TPSL, immediately = true)
    //strategy.close_all(comment = "TP💚LH", alert_message = Alert_TPSL)
    //strategy.exit("Exit",'Long2', qty_percent = 100, profit = last_price_l, stop = stoploss, comment_profit = "TP💚LH", comment_loss = "SL💚LH", alert_message = Alert_TPSL)
    //strategy.exit("Exit",'Long', qty_percent = 100, profit = last_price_l, stop = stoploss, comment_profit = "TP💚L", comment_loss = "SL💚L", alert_message = Alert_TPSL)
else if strategy.position_size > 0 and strategy.openprofit < tp_pnl and mode == true and hedge_mode == true
    strategy.exit("Exit",'Long', qty_percent = 100, stop = stoploss, comment_loss = "SL💚%L", alert_message = Alert_TPSL)

if strategy.position_size > 0 and mode == true and hedge_mode == false
    //strategy.close_all(comment = "TP💚LH", alert_message = Alert_TPSL, immediately = true)
    strategy.exit("Exit",'Long', qty_percent = 100, profit = takeprofit, stop = stoploss, comment_profit = "TP💚%L", comment_loss = "SL💚%L", alert_message = Alert_TPSL)
    //strategy.exit("Exit",'Long', qty_percent = 100, profit = takeprofit, stop = stoploss, comment_profit = "TP💚LL", comment_loss = "SL💚L", alert_message = Alert_TPSL)

//else if strategy.position_size > 0 and strategy.opentrades > 1
//    lastsize = strategy.position_size
//    lastprofitorder = strategy.openprofit
//    if lastprofitorder >= 0.07
//        strategy.close_all(comment = "TP💚LL", alert_message = Alert_TPSL)
if strategy.position_size < 0 and strategy.openprofit >= tp_pnl and mode == true and hedge_mode == true
    lastsize = (strategy.position_size) * -1
    lastprofitorder = strategy.openprofit
    //if lastprofitorder >= 0.07
    //strategy.close('Short', qty = lastsize, comment = "TP❤️️S", alert_message = Alert_TPSL, immediately = true)
    strategy.cancel_all()
    strategy.close_all(comment = "TP❤️️PNL", alert_message = Alert_TPSL, immediately = true)
    //strategy.close_all(comment = "TP❤️️SH", alert_message = Alert_TPSL)
    //strategy.exit("Exit",'Short2', qty_percent = 100, profit = last_price_s, stop = stoploss, comment_profit = "TP❤️️SH", comment_loss = "SL❤️️SH", alert_message = Alert_TPSL)
    //strategy.exit("Exit",'Short', qty_percent = 100, profit = last_price_s, stop = stoploss, comment_profit = "TP❤️️S", comment_loss = "SL❤️️S", alert_message = Alert_TPSL)
else if strategy.position_size < 0 and strategy.openprofit < tp_pnl and mode == true and hedge_mode == true
    strategy.exit("Exit",'Short', qty_percent = 100, stop = stoploss, comment_loss = "SL❤️️%S", alert_message = Alert_TPSL)
if strategy.position_size < 0 and mode == true and hedge_mode == false
    //strategy.close_all(comment = "TP❤️️SH", alert_message = Alert_TPSL, immediately = true)
    strategy.exit("Exit",'Short', qty_percent = 100, profit = takeprofit, stop = stoploss, comment_profit = "TP❤️️%S", comment_loss = "SL❤️️%S", alert_message = Alert_TPSL)
    //strategy.exit("Exit",'Short', qty_percent = 100, profit = takeprofit, stop = stoploss, comment_profit = "TP❤️️S", comment_loss = "SL❤️️S", alert_message = Alert_TPSL)

//else if strategy.position_size < 0 and strategy.opentrades > 1
//    lastsize = (strategy.position_size) * -1
//    lastprofitorder = strategy.openprofit
//    if lastprofitorder >= 0.07
//        strategy.close_all(comment = "TP❤️️SS", alert_message = Alert_TPSL)

//===================== เรียกใช้  library =========================
import X4815162342/X48_LibaryStrategyStatus/2 as fuLi 
//แสดงผล Backtest

show_Net = input.bool(true,'Monitor Profit&Loss', inline = 'Lnet', group = '= PNL MONITOR SETTING =')
position_ = input.string('bottom_center','Position', options = ['top_right','middle_right','bottom_right','top_center','middle_center','bottom_center','middle_left','bottom_left'] , inline = 'Lnet')
size_i = input.string('auto','size', options = ['auto','tiny','small','normal'] , inline = 'Lnet') 
color_Net = input.color(color.blue,"" , inline = 'Lnet')
// fuLi.NetProfit_Show(show_Net , position_ , size_i,  color_Net )


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