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明確なトレンド追跡戦略

作者: リン・ハーンチャオチャン, 日付: 2023-09-28 16:07:12
タグ:

概要

この戦略は,複数の技術指標を組み合わせて,明確なトレンド追跡を実現する.主な構成要素は:

  1. 移動平均値に基づく傾向判断
  2. ストカスティックオシレーターを用いた過売り/過買い分析
  3. 価格と量指標による資金流の分析
  4. 変動指数を用いたトレンド品質測定
  5. RSI の差異検出

これらの指標からの信号を合成することで,戦略は傾向をより正確に特定することができます. 黄金十字が起こるときは長くなって,死十字が現れるときに短くなります.

原則

まず,動向平均値とその封筒は,トレンド方向を決定するために使用されます.価格が封筒を突破すると,潜在的なトレンド逆転をシグナルすることができます.

第二に,ストカストティックオシレーターからのKD線は,通常逆転の機会を意味する過売り/過買い状態を検出するために使用されます.

次に,資金の流れを分析するために価格・量指標が構築されます.増加する量は資本の流入と傾向の継続を表し,減少する量は資本の流出と傾向の逆転を示します.

傾向の質を定量化するために,変動指数は平均価格範囲から構築され,そのEMAは傾向の強さを測定します.これは偽の傾向をフィルタリングするのに役立ちます.

最後に,価格とRSIの差は,今後トレンド逆転を示唆する可能性があります.

これらのすべての信号を組み合わせることで,傾向をより正確に識別することができます.MAs間の黄金十字が現れる場合,戦略は長くなり,死十字が起こる場合,短くなります.

利点

  • 複数の指標を用いて 騒音削減とより明確な信号
  • 過剰販売/過剰購入分析は,逆転のタイミングをよく示しています
  • 容量分析は偽のブレイクを防ぐ
  • 変動指数は,変動を避けるためにトレンド品質を測定する.
  • RSIの差異は,逆転の追加信号を提供します.
  • シンプルなコード構造,理解し変更が簡単

リスク

  • 複数の指標を組み合わせるときに信号衝突が発生し,注意深くパラメータ調整を必要とする
  • 増量も操作可能で 慎重な判断が必要
  • RSI パラメータは,異なる製品に対して調整が必要かもしれません.
  • 変動市場では,誤ったシグナルが頻繁に発生します.
  • 不効率な市場では指標の業績が低下する可能性があります

リスク管理

  • 適切な指標行動のためのパラメータ最適化を強化する
  • 衝突を解決するために指標の重みを設定する
  • 製品特性に基づいてパラメータを調整する
  • 過剰な取引を減らすため,ポジションのサイズを増やす
  • バックテストと紙取引によるパフォーマンスの検証

最適化

この戦略は,次の側面で改善できます.

  1. 機械学習を使用して,異なる製品のパラメータを自動調整します

  2. モデル評価を追加し,市場状況に基づいて指標重量を動的に調整する

  3. 市場変動に基づいて適応型ストップロスを実施する

  4. より正確なトレンド予測のために深層学習を組み込む

  5. 衝突を解決し,誤った信号を減らすために自動信号の調和を構築する

  6. アセンブルシステム予測のためのより多くの指標を統合する

  7. パラメータ依存を減らすためにパラメータのない指標を探求する

結論

この戦略は,比較的強力なトレンド識別を達成するために複数の技術指標を活用し,有望な応用可能性を秘めています.しかし,安定したライブ取引の前に,その正確性とリスク管理は継続的に改善する必要があります.将来の最適化には,機械学習やその他の技術が組み込まれ,インテリジェントオートメーションが可能になります.


/*backtest
start: 2022-09-21 00:00:00
end: 2023-09-27 00:00:00
period: 1d
basePeriod: 1h
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

//@version=3
//Market Cipher Update 2 - updated 8th Oct 2019

//Momentum Curves with green and red dots
strategy(title="MarketCipher B", shorttitle="MarketCipher B")
n1 = input(9, "Channel Length")
n2 = input(12, "Average Length")
obLevel1 = input(60, "Over Bought Level 1")
obLevel2 = input(53, "Over Bought Level 2")
osLevel1 = input(-60, "Over Sold Level 1")
osLevel2 = input(-53, "Over Sold Level 2")
osLevel3 = input(-100, "Over Sold Level 2")

 
ap = hlc3 
esa = ema(ap, n1)
d = ema(abs(ap - esa), n1)
ci = (ap - esa) / (0.015 * d)
tci = ema(ci, n2)
 
wt1 = tci
wt2 = sma(wt1,3)

plot(0, color=gray, title="Zero Line")
plot(obLevel1, color=red, style=3, title="Bottom")
plot(osLevel1, color=green, style=3, title="Top")
plot(wt1, color=#BFE4FF, style=4, title= "Lt Blue Wave")
plot(wt2, color=#673ab7, style=4, title="Blue Wave", transp=40)
plot(wt1-wt2, color=yellow, style=4, transp=40, title="wave1-wave2")

//green dots and crosses
plotshape(crossover(wt1, wt2) and osLevel1 ? wt2 : na, title="Pos Crossover", location=location.absolute, style=shape.cross, size=size.tiny, color=#3FFF00, transp=20)
plotshape(crossover(wt2, wt1) and osLevel1 ? wt1 : na, title="Neg Crossover", location=location.absolute, style=shape.cross, size=size.tiny, color=red, transp=20)
plotshape(crossover(wt1, wt2) and wt2 < -59 ? wt2 : na, title="Pos Crossover", location=location.bottom, style=shape.circle, size=size.tiny, color=#3FFF00, transp=20)
plotshape(crossover(wt2, wt1) and wt1 > 59 ? wt2 : na, title="Neg Crossover", location=location.top, style=shape.circle, size=size.tiny, color=red, transp=20)

buy= crossover(wt1,wt2) // Define our buy/sell conditions, using pine inbuilt functions.
sell= crossover(wt2,wt1)
ordersize=floor(strategy.equity/close) // To dynamically calculate the order size as the account equity increases or decreases.
strategy.entry("long",strategy.long,ordersize,when=buy) // Buys when buy condition met
strategy.close("long", when = sell ) // Closes position when sell condition met
strategy.entry("short",strategy.short,ordersize,when=sell)
strategy.close("short",when = buy )

//soch RSI with divergences
smoothKw = input(3, minval=1)
smoothDw = input(3, minval=1)
lengthRSIw = input(14, minval=1)
lengthStochw = input(14, minval=1)
uselogw = input(true, title="Log")
srcInw = input(close,  title="Source")
showdivsw = input(true, title="Show Divergences")
showhiddenw = input(false, title="Show Hidden Divergences")
showchanw = input(false, title="Show Divergences Channel")


srcw = uselogw ? log(srcInw) : srcInw
rsi1w = rsi(srcw, lengthRSIw)
kkw = sma(stoch(rsi1w, rsi1w, rsi1w, lengthStochw), smoothKw)
dw = sma(kkw, smoothDw)
hmw = input(false, title="Use Average of both K & D")
kw = hmw ? avg(kkw, dw) : kkw

aw = plot(kkw, color=blue, linewidth=1, transp=0, title="K")
bw = plot(dw, color=orange, linewidth=1, transp=0, title="D")
fw = kkw >= dw ? blue : orange
fill(aw, bw, title="KD Fill", color=white)


//------------------------------
//@RicardoSantos' Divergence Script

f_top_fractal(_src)=>_src[4] < _src[2] and _src[3] < _src[2] and _src[2] > _src[1] and _src[2] > _src[0]
f_bot_fractal(_src)=>_src[4] > _src[2] and _src[3] > _src[2] and _src[2] < _src[1] and _src[2] < _src[0]
f_fractalize(_src)=>f_top_fractal(_src) ? 1 : f_bot_fractal(_src) ? -1 : 0
//-------------------------
fractal_top = f_fractalize(kw) > 0 ? kw[2] : na
fractal_bot = f_fractalize(kw) < 0 ? kw[2] : na

high_prev = valuewhen(fractal_top, kw[2], 0)[2]
high_price = valuewhen(fractal_top, high[2], 0)[2]
low_prev = valuewhen(fractal_bot, kw[2], 0)[2]
low_price = valuewhen(fractal_bot, low[2], 0)[2]

regular_bearish_diva = fractal_top and high[2] > high_price and kw[2] < high_prev
hidden_bearish_diva = fractal_top and high[2] < high_price and kw[2] > high_prev
regular_bullish_diva = fractal_bot and low[2] < low_price and kw[2] > low_prev
hidden_bullish_diva = fractal_bot and low[2] > low_price and kw[2] < low_prev
//-------------------------
plot(showchanw?fractal_top:na, title="Top Div Channel", offset=-2, color=gray)
plot(showchanw?fractal_bot:na, title="Bottom Div Channel", offset=-2, color=gray)

col1 = regular_bearish_diva ? red : hidden_bearish_diva and showhiddenw ? red : na
col2 = regular_bullish_diva ? green : hidden_bullish_diva and showhiddenw ? green : na
col3 = regular_bearish_diva ? red : hidden_bearish_diva and showhiddenw ? red : showchanw ? gray : na
col4 = regular_bullish_diva ? green : hidden_bullish_diva and showhiddenw ? green : showchanw ? gray : na

plot(title='H F', series=showdivsw and fractal_top ? kw[2] : na, color=col1, linewidth=2, offset=-2)
plot(title='L F', series=showdivsw and fractal_bot ? kw[2] : na, color=col2, linewidth=2, offset=-2)
plot(title='H D', series=showdivsw and fractal_top ? kw[2] : na, style=circles, color=col3, linewidth=3, offset=-2)
plot(title='L D', series=showdivsw and fractal_bot ? kw[2] : na, style=circles, color=col4, linewidth=3, offset=-2)

plotshape(title='+RBD', series=showdivsw and regular_bearish_diva ? kw[2] : na, text='R', style=shape.labeldown, location=location.absolute, color=red, textcolor=white, offset=-2)
plotshape(title='+HBD', series=showdivsw and hidden_bearish_diva and showhiddenw ? kw[2] : na, text='H', style=shape.labeldown, location=location.absolute, color=red, textcolor=white, offset=-2)
plotshape(title='-RBD', series=showdivsw and regular_bullish_diva ? kw[2] : na, text='R', style=shape.labelup, location=location.absolute, color=green, textcolor=white, offset=-2)
plotshape(title='-HBD', series=showdivsw and hidden_bullish_diva  and showhiddenw ? kw[2] : na, text='H', style=shape.labelup, location=location.absolute, color=green, textcolor=white, offset=-2)


//money flow
colorRed = #ff0000
colorGreen = #03ff00

ma(matype, src, length) =>
    if matype == "RMA"
        rma(src, length)
    else
        if matype == "SMA"
            sma(src, length)
        else
            if matype == "EMA"
                ema(src, length)
            else
                if matype == "WMA"
                    wma(src, length)
                else
                    if matype == "VWMA"
                        vwma(src, length)
                    else
                        src

rsiMFIperiod = input(60, "RSI+MFI Period")
rsiMFIMultiplier = input(190, "RSI+MFI Area multiplier")
MFRSIMA = input(defval="SMA", title="MFRSIMA", options=["RMA", "SMA", "EMA", "WMA", "VWMA"])

candleValue = (close - open) / (high - low)
MVC = ma(MFRSIMA, candleValue, rsiMFIperiod)
color_area = MVC > 0 ? green : red

RSIMFIplot = plot(MVC * rsiMFIMultiplier, title="RSI+MFI Area", color=color_area, transp=35)
fill(RSIMFIplot, plot(0), color_area, transp=50)

//rsi
//Bullish Divergence (green triangle)
//Hidden Bullish Divergence (green circle)
//Bearish Divergence (red triangle)
//Hidden Bearish Divergence (red circle)

lend = 14
bearish_div_rsi = input(60, "Min Bearish RSI",  minval=50, maxval=100)
bullish_div_rsi = input(40, "Max Bullish RSI",  minval=0, maxval=50)

// RSI code
rsi = rsi(close, lend)
plot(rsi,  color=#6DFFE1, linewidth=2, transp=0, title="RSI")

// DIVS code
xbars = 60
hb = abs(highestbars(rsi, xbars)) // Finds bar with highest value in last X bars
lb = abs(lowestbars(rsi, xbars)) // Finds bar with lowest value in last X bars

// Defining variable values, mandatory in Pine 3
max = na
max_rsi = na
min = na
min_rsi = na
bearish_div = na
bullish_div = na
hidden_bearish_div = na
hidden_bullish_div = na
div_alert = na
hidden_div_alert = na

// If bar with lowest / highest is current bar, use it's value
max := hb == 0 ? close : na(max[1]) ? close : max[1]
max_rsi := hb == 0 ? rsi : na(max_rsi[1]) ? rsi : max_rsi[1]
min := lb == 0 ? close : na(min[1]) ? close : min[1]
min_rsi := lb == 0 ? rsi : na(min_rsi[1]) ? rsi : min_rsi[1]

// Compare high of current bar being examined with previous bar's high
// If curr bar high is higher than the max bar high in the lookback window range
if close > max // we have a new high
    max := close // change variable "max" to use current bar's high value
if rsi > max_rsi // we have a new high
    max_rsi := rsi // change variable "max_rsi" to use current bar's RSI value
if close < min // we have a new low
    min := close // change variable "min" to use current bar's low value
if rsi < min_rsi // we have a new low
    min_rsi := rsi // change variable "min_rsi" to use current bar's RSI value

// Detects divergences between price and indicator with 1 candle delay so it filters out repeating divergences
if (max[1] > max[2]) and (rsi[1] < max_rsi) and (rsi <= rsi[1]) and (rsi[1] >= bearish_div_rsi)
    bearish_div := true
	div_alert := true
if (min[1] < min[2]) and (rsi[1] > min_rsi) and (rsi >= rsi[1]) and (rsi[1] <= bullish_div_rsi)
    bullish_div := true
	div_alert := true
// Hidden divergences
if (max[1] < max[2]) and (rsi[1] < max_rsi)
	hidden_bearish_div := true
	hidden_div_alert := true
if (min[1] > min[2]) and (rsi[1] > min_rsi)
	hidden_bullish_div := true
	hidden_div_alert := true
// Alerts
alertcondition(div_alert, title='RSI Divergence', message='RSI Divergence')
alertcondition(hidden_div_alert, title='Hidden RSI Divergence', message='Hidden RSI Divergence')

// Plots divergences with offest
plotshape((bearish_div ? rsi[1] + 3 : na), location=location.absolute, style=shape.diamond, color=#ff0000, size=size.tiny, transp=0, offset=0, title="RSI Bear Div")
plotshape((bullish_div ? rsi[1] - 3 : na), location=location.absolute, style=shape.diamond, color=#00ff01, size=size.tiny, transp=0, offset=0, title="RSI Bull Div")
plotshape((hidden_bearish_div ? rsi[1] + 3 : na), location=location.absolute, style=shape.circle, color=#ff0000, size=size.tiny, transp=0, offset=0, title="RSI Bear hDiv")
plotshape((hidden_bullish_div ? rsi[1] - 3 : na), location=location.absolute, style=shape.circle, color=#00ff01, size=size.tiny, transp=0, offset=0, title="RSI Bull hDiv")


//wave divergences
WTCross = cross(wt1, wt2)
WTCrossUp = wt2 - wt1 <= 0
WTCrossDown = wt2 - wt1 >= 0
WTFractal_top = f_fractalize(wt1) > 0 and wt1[2] ? wt1[2] : na
WTFractal_bot = f_fractalize(wt1) < 0 and wt1[2] ? wt1[2] : na

WTHigh_prev  = valuewhen(WTFractal_top, wt1[2], 0)[2]
WTHigh_price = valuewhen(WTFractal_top, high[2], 0)[2]
WTLow_prev  = valuewhen(WTFractal_bot, wt1, 0)[2]
WTLow_price  = valuewhen(WTFractal_bot, low[2], 0)[2]

WTRegular_bearish_div = WTFractal_top and high[2] > WTHigh_price and wt1[2] < WTHigh_prev
WTRegular_bullish_div = WTFractal_bot and low[2] < WTLow_price and wt1[2] > WTLow_prev

bearWTSignal = WTRegular_bearish_div and WTCrossDown
bullWTSignal = WTRegular_bullish_div and WTCrossUp

WTCol1 = bearWTSignal ? #ff0000 : na
WTCol2 = bullWTSignal ? #00FF00EB : na

plot(series = WTFractal_top ? wt1[2] : na, title='Bearish Divergence', color=WTCol1, linewidth=5, transp=60)
plot(series = WTFractal_bot ? wt1[2] : na, title='Bullish Divergence', color=WTCol2, linewidth=5, transp=60)


//2nd wave
WTFractal_topa = f_fractalize(wt2) > 0 and wt2[2] ? wt2[2] : na
WTFractal_bota = f_fractalize(wt2) < 0 and wt2[2] ? wt2[2] : na

WTHigh_preva  = valuewhen(WTFractal_topa, wt2[2], 0)[2]
WTHigh_pricea = valuewhen(WTFractal_topa, high[2], 0)[2]
WTLow_preva  = valuewhen(WTFractal_bota, wt2, 0)[2]
WTLow_pricea  = valuewhen(WTFractal_bota, low[2], 0)[2]


WTRegular_bearish_diva = WTFractal_topa and high[2] > WTHigh_pricea and wt2[2] < WTHigh_preva
WTRegular_bullish_diva = WTFractal_bota and low[2] < WTLow_pricea and wt2[2] > WTLow_preva

bearWTSignala = WTRegular_bearish_diva and WTCrossDown
bullWTSignala = WTRegular_bullish_diva and WTCrossUp

WTCol1a = bearWTSignala ? #ff0000 : na
WTCol2a = bullWTSignala ? #00FF00EB : na

plot(series = WTFractal_topa ? wt2[2] : na, title='Bearish Divergence', color=WTCol1a, linewidth=5, transp=60)
plot(series = WTFractal_bota ? wt2[2] : na, title='Bullish Divergence', color=WTCol2a, linewidth=5, transp=60)


もっと