ハイブリッド 移動平均 ブレイク トート 取引戦略
作者: リン・ハーンチャオチャン, 日付: 2023-12-05 15:01:56タグ:
概要
この戦略は,移動平均値,波動指標,ボリューム重量平均価格 (VWAP) とパラボリックSARストップロスのような様々な技術分析ツールを組み合わせ,強力なブレイクアウト識別とストップロスの保護機能を持つハイブリッドタートル取引戦略を実装する.
戦略の論理
- 異なる期間のSMAコンボを使用して,トレンド方向と潜在的なブレイクポイントを決定します.
- 短期的な過買い/過売状況の特定のために波動性に基づくボリンジャー帯を適用する
- 中長期のフェアバリュー価格範囲を決定するためにVWAPを使用する.
- 損失を削減するためのストップ損失指標としてパラボリックSAR
- トレーディング・シグナルを生成するためのタートル・トレードルール
利点分析
- 複数の指標を統合してより包括的な判断,より正確な信号
- VWAPは,合理的な価格範囲を決定し,盲目的に高値を追いかけるのを避けるのに役立ちます
- SARストップロスは,各ポジションの損失を効果的に制御します.
- カメ取引規則は,適切な入場タイミングを保証する
リスク分析
- パラメータの設定が正しくない場合,取引頻度が高くなり,信号の判断が間違える可能性があります.
- シングルストップ・ロスのメソッドは利益の可能性を制限する.
- 亀 の 信号 は 衝突 を 避ける ため に 適切に フィルタリング さ れる 必要 が あり ます
オプティマイゼーションの方向性
- 突破の識別を向上させるため,精細な調整 SMA 期間
- 波動性パラメータを調整し,ボリンジャー帯が価格に近い状態になるようにする.
- より正確なストップ損失のためにパラボリックパラメータを最適化
- タートル信号をフィルターに他の指標を追加
結論
この戦略は,複数の指標のシームレスな統合を通じて,比較的正確なシグナリング,強力なストップ損失能力,および高度に最適化可能なブレークアウトスタイルのタートル戦略を形成する.適切なパラメータチューニングにより,ブレークアウト識別とストップ損失保護能力はさらに強化され,推奨される定量的な取引戦略となっています.
/*backtest
start: 2022-11-28 00:00:00
end: 2023-12-04 00:00:00
period: 1d
basePeriod: 1h
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/
//@version=4
strategy("Gui's Turtle", shorttitle = "Guis Turtles", overlay=true, pyramiding=0, default_qty_value = 10)
//This script has to be used with Heikin Ashi Caddles for the strategy to work well
//Thank you to all the ones that have their scripts public so we can make this everything one
//The colours and thicknesses have to be altered and messed with
sma1 = sma(close, 10)
sma2 = sma(close, 20)
plot(sma1, title="SMA10", color = yellow, linewidth = 2)
plot(sma2, title="SMA20", color = orange, linewidth = 2)
sma3 = sma(close, 50)
sma4 = sma(close, 100)
sma5 = sma(close, 200)
plot(sma3, title="SMA50", color = white, linewidth = 2)
plot(sma4, title="SMA100", color = blue, linewidth = 2)
plot(sma5, title="SMA200", color = fuchsia, linewidth = 2)
plot(cross(sma1, sma2) ? sma1 : na, style = cross, color = red, linewidth = 4)
length = input(200, minval=1)
src = input(hlc3, title="Source")
mult = input(3.0, minval=0.001, maxval=50)
basis = vwma(src, length)
dev = mult * stdev(src, length)
upper_1= basis + (0.236*dev)
upper_2= basis + (0.382*dev)
upper_3= basis + (0.5*dev)
upper_4= basis + (0.618*dev)
upper_5= basis + (0.764*dev)
upper_6= basis + (1*dev)
lower_1= basis - (0.236*dev)
lower_2= basis - (0.382*dev)
lower_3= basis - (0.5*dev)
lower_4= basis - (0.618*dev)
lower_5= basis - (0.764*dev)
lower_6= basis - (1*dev)
plot(basis, color=fuchsia, linewidth=2)
p1 = plot(upper_1, color=white, linewidth=1, title="0.236")
p2 = plot(upper_2, color=white, linewidth=1, title="0.382")
p3 = plot(upper_3, color=white, linewidth=1, title="0.5")
p4 = plot(upper_4, color=white, linewidth=1, title="0.618")
p5 = plot(upper_5, color=white, linewidth=1, title="0.764")
p6 = plot(upper_6, color=red, linewidth=2, title="1")
p13 = plot(lower_1, color=white, linewidth=1, title="0.236")
p14 = plot(lower_2, color=white, linewidth=1, title="0.382")
p15 = plot(lower_3, color=white, linewidth=1, title="0.5")
p16 = plot(lower_4, color=white, linewidth=1, title="0.618")
p17 = plot(lower_5, color=white, linewidth=1, title="0.764")
p18 = plot(lower_6, color=green, linewidth=2, title="1")
window1 = input(title='lookback window 1:', defval=8)
window2 = input(title='lookback window 2:', defval=21)
top1 = valuewhen(high >= highest(high, window1), high, 0)
bot1 = valuewhen(low <= lowest(low, window1), low, 0)
top2 = valuewhen(high >= highest(high, window2), high, 0)
bot2 = valuewhen(low <= lowest(low, window2), low, 0)
t1 = plot(top1, color=top1 != top1[1] ? na : black)
b1 = plot(bot1, color=bot1 != bot1[1] ? na : black)
t2 = plot(top2, color=top2 != top2[1] ? na : black)
b2 = plot(bot2, color=bot2 != bot2[1] ? na : black)
fill(t1, t2, color=orange, transp=80)
fill(b1, b2, color=olive, transp=80)
//inputs
h_left = input(title="H left", defval=10)
h_right = input(title="H right", defval=10)
sample_period = input(title="Sample bars for % TZ", defval=5000)
show_ptz = input(title="Show PTZ", type=bool, defval=true)
show_channel = input(title="Show channel", type=bool, defval=true)
h_left_low = lowest(h_left)
h_left_high = highest(h_left)
newlow = low <= h_left_low
newhigh = high >= h_left_high
plotshape(newlow and show_ptz, style=shape.triangledown, location=location.belowbar, color=red)
plotshape(newhigh and show_ptz, style=shape.triangleup, location=location.abovebar, color=green)
channel_high = plot(show_channel ? h_left_low : 0, color=silver)
channel_low = plot (show_channel ? h_left_high : 0, color=silver)
central_bar_low = low[h_right + 1]
central_bar_high = high[h_right + 1]
full_zone_low = lowest(h_left + h_right + 1)
full_zone_high = highest(h_left + h_right + 1)
central_bar_is_highest = central_bar_high >= full_zone_high
central_bar_is_lowest = central_bar_low <= full_zone_low
plotarrow(central_bar_is_highest ? -1 : 0, offset=-h_right-1)
plotarrow(central_bar_is_lowest ? 1 : 0, offset=-h_right-1)
x = central_bar_is_highest ? 1 : 0
high_bar_tz_count = cum(x)
y = central_bar_is_lowest ? 1 : 0
low_bar_tz_count = cum(y)
total_tz = high_bar_tz_count + low_bar_tz_count
percent_tz_high = (high_bar_tz_count / sample_period) * 100
//plot(percent_tz_high, color = lime, transp=100)
percent_tz_low = (low_bar_tz_count / sample_period) * 100
//plot(low_bar_tz_count, color=red, transp=100)
percent_total_tz = (percent_tz_high + percent_tz_low)
plot(percent_total_tz, color=black, transp=100)
//PTZ probability calc
i = newhigh ? 1 : 0
high_bar_ptz_count = cum(i)
j = newlow ? 1 : 0
low_bar_ptz_count = cum(j)
total_ptz = high_bar_ptz_count + low_bar_ptz_count
percent_ptz_high = (high_bar_ptz_count / sample_period) * 100
//plot(percent_ptz_high, color=green, transp=100)
percent_ptz_low = (low_bar_ptz_count / sample_period) * 100
//plot(percent_ptz_low, color=maroon, transp=100)
percent_total_ptz = (percent_ptz_high + percent_ptz_low)
plot(percent_total_ptz, color=navy, transp=100)
//PTZ resolving probability calc
percent_ptz_resolved = (1 - (total_tz / total_ptz)) * 100
plot(percent_ptz_resolved, color=gray, transp=100)
devUp1 = input(1.28, title="Stdev above (1)")
devDn1 = input(1.28, title="Stdev below (1)")
devUp2 = input(2.01, title="Stdev above (2)")
devDn2 = input(2.01, title="Stdev below (2)")
devUp3 = input(2.51, title="Stdev above (3)")
devDn3 = input(2.51, title="Stdev below (3)")
devUp4 = input(3.09, title="Stdev above (4)")
devDn4 = input(3.09, title="Stdev below (4)")
devUp5 = input(4.01, title="Stdev above (5)")
devDn5 = input(4.01, title="Stdev below (5)")
showBcol = input(true, title="Turn Barcolor ON/OFF?")
showDv2 = input(true, type=bool, title="Show second group of bands?")
showDv3 = input(true, type=bool, title="Show third group of bands?")
showDv4 = input(false, type=bool, title="Show fourth group of bands?")
showDv5 = input(false, type=bool, title="Show fifth group of bands?")
showPrevVWAP = input(false, type=bool, title="Show previous VWAP close")
ColorSrc=input(close)
price=ColorSrc
start = request.security(syminfo.tickerid, "W", time)
newSession = iff(change(start), 1, 0)
vwapsum = iff(newSession, hl2*volume, vwapsum[1]+hl2*volume)
volumesum = iff(newSession, volume, volumesum[1]+volume)
v2sum = iff(newSession, volume*hl2*hl2, v2sum[1]+volume*hl2*hl2)
myvwap = vwapsum/volumesum
dev9 = sqrt(max(v2sum/volumesum - myvwap*myvwap, 0))
A=plot(myvwap,style=circles, title="VWAP", color=black)
U1=plot(myvwap + devUp1 * dev9,style=circles, title="VWAP Upper", color=gray)
D1=plot(myvwap - devDn1 * dev9, style=circles, title="VWAP Lower", color=gray)
myvwapu1= myvwap + devUp1 * dev9
myvwapd1= myvwap - devDn1 * dev9
U2=plot(showDv2 ? myvwap + devUp2 * dev9 : na, color=red, title="VWAP Upper (2)")
D2=plot(showDv2 ? myvwap - devDn2 * dev9 : na, color=green, title="VWAP Lower (2)")
myvwapu2= myvwap + devUp2 * dev9
myvwapu3= myvwap + devUp3 * dev9
myvwapd2= myvwap - devDn2 * dev9
myvwapd3= myvwap - devDn3 * dev9
U3=plot(showDv3 ? myvwap + devUp3 * dev9 : na, title="VWAP Upper (3)", color=red)
D3=plot(showDv3 ? myvwap - devDn3 * dev9 : na, title="VWAP Lower (3)", color=green)
myvwapu4= myvwap + devDn4 * dev9
myvwapd4= myvwap - devDn4 * dev9
U4=plot(showDv4 ? myvwap + devUp4 * dev9 : na, title="VWAP Upper (4)", color=red)
D4=plot(showDv4 ? myvwap - devDn4 * dev9 : na, title="VWAP Lower (4)", color=green)
U5=plot(showDv5 ? myvwap + devUp5 * dev9 : na, title="VWAP Upper (5)", color=red)
D5=plot(showDv5 ? myvwap - devDn5 * dev9 : na, title="VWAP Lower (5)", color=green)
prevwap = iff(newSession, myvwap[1], prevwap[1])
plot(showPrevVWAP ? prevwap : na, style=circles, color=close > prevwap ? green : red)
ColorMiddleU = price > myvwap and price < myvwapu2 ? white:na
ColorMiddleD = price > myvwapd1 and price < myvwap ? black:na
ColorDv1d = price > myvwapd2 and price < myvwapd1 ? gray:na
ColorDv1u = price > myvwapu1 and price < myvwapu2 ? gray:na
ColorDv2d = price > myvwapd3 and price < myvwapd2 ? green:na
ColorDv2u = price > myvwapu2 and price < myvwapu3 ? maroon:na
ColorDv3d = price > myvwapd4 and price < myvwapd3 ? lime:na
ColorDv3u = price > myvwapu3 and price < myvwapu4 ? red:na
barcolor(showBcol?ColorMiddleD:na, title="BarColor vwap-1 Lower")
barcolor(showBcol?ColorMiddleU:na, title="BarColorColor vwap-1 upper")
barcolor(showBcol?ColorDv1d:na, title="BarColor 1-2 Lower")
barcolor(showBcol?ColorDv1u:na, title="BarColorColor 1-2 upper")
barcolor(showBcol?ColorDv2d:na, title="BarColor 2-3 Lower")
barcolor(showBcol?ColorDv2u:na, title="BarColorColor 2-3 upper")
barcolor(showBcol?ColorDv3d:na, title="BarColor 3-4 Lower")
barcolor(showBcol?ColorDv3u:na, title="BarColorColor 3-4 upper")
fill(U1, U2, color=red, transp=90, title="Over Bought Fill 1")
fill(D1, D2, color=green, transp=90, title="Over Sold Fill 1")
fill(U2, U3, color=red, transp=90, title="Over Bought Fill 2")
fill(D2, D3, color=green, transp=90, title="Over Sold Fill 2")
fill(U3, U4, color=red, transp=90, title="Over Bought Fill 3")
fill(D3, D4, color=green, transp=90, title="Over Sold Fill 3")
fill(U4, U5, color=red, transp=90, title="Over Bought Fill 4")
fill(D4, D5, color=green, transp=90, title="Over Sold Fill 4")
fill(A, U1, color=gray, transp=90, title="Middle Fill Up")
fill(A, D1, color=gray, transp=90, title="Middle Fill Down")
//Created By ChrisMoody on 7/25/2014
//Simply Enhances Default Parabolic SAR by creating Two Color Options, One for UpTrend, Other for DownTrend
//Ability To Turn On/Off The Up Trending Parabolic SAR, And The Down Trending Parabolic SARstudy(title="CM_Parabolic SAR", shorttitle="CM_P-SAR", overlay=true)
start1 = input(2, minval=0, maxval=10, title="Start1 - Default = 2 - Multiplied by .01")
increment = input(2, minval=0, maxval=10, title="Step Setting (Sensitivity) - Default = 2 - Multiplied by .01" )
maximum = input(2, minval=1, maxval=10, title="Maximum Step (Sensitivity) - Default = 2 - Multiplied by .10")
sus = input(true, "Show Up Trending Parabolic Sar")
sds = input(true, "Show Down Trending Parabolic Sar")
disc = input(false, title="Start1 and Step settings are *.01 so 2 = .02 etc, Maximum Step is *.10 so 2 = .2")
startCalc = start1 * .01
incrementCalc = increment * .01
maximumCalc = maximum * .10
sarUp = sar(startCalc, incrementCalc, maximumCalc)
sarDown = sar(startCalc, incrementCalc, maximumCalc)
colUp = close >= sarDown ? lime : na
colDown = close <= sarUp ? red : na
plot(sus and sarUp ? sarUp : na, title="Up Trending SAR", style=circles, linewidth=4,color=colUp)
plot(sds and sarDown ? sarDown : na, title="Up Trending SAR", style=circles, linewidth=4,color=colDown)
TurtleSpeed = input(6, minval=1)
FastSpeed = highest(TurtleSpeed)
SlowSpeed = lowest(TurtleSpeed)
enterLong = high > FastSpeed[1]
enterShort = low < SlowSpeed[1]
strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, when = enterLong)
strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short, when = enterShort)
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