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Strategi Kereta Api Stop Loss yang Sesuai

Penulis:ChaoZhang, Tarikh: 2024-01-02 11:10:54
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Ringkasan

Idea utama strategi ini adalah untuk menggabungkan penapis Kalman dan penjejakan stop loss untuk membina rel stop loss yang diselaraskan secara dinamik. Penapis Kalman digunakan untuk mengesan harga dan memberikan nilai yang diramalkan. Rel stop loss dibina berdasarkan ramalan pada peratusan tertentu untuk mencapai penjejakan harga yang dinamik. Ini membolehkan keuntungan maksimum semasa fasa trend sambil menghentikan kerugian tepat pada masanya semasa pembalikan.

Keseluruhan strategi boleh mencapai hasil yang baik dalam pasaran trend.

Prinsip Strategi

Strategi ini terdiri daripada bahagian utama berikut:

  1. Penapis Kalman

    • Ramalan harga menggunakan algoritma rekursif
    • Harga yang lancar dan memberikan nilai yang diramalkan
  2. Stop kehilangan rel

    • Dibina berdasarkan nilai yang diramalkan pada nisbah yang ditetapkan
    • Nisbah akan menurun secara beransur-ansur mendekati ramalan sebagai bar kemajuan
    • Hentikan kerugian apabila harga memecahkan rel
  3. Piramida dan mengambil keuntungan

    • Menggunakan kaedah martingale untuk menambah kedudukan pada kerugian
    • Tetapkan pelbagai titik keuntungan mengambil

Aliran operasi utama keseluruhan strategi adalah:

  1. Penapis Kalman meramalkan harga
  2. Tetapkan rel stop loss berdasarkan harga dan nisbah yang diramalkan
  3. Apabila harga bergerak ke arah yang baik, stop loss rel mendekati secara beransur-ansur untuk memaksimumkan keuntungan
  4. Jika harga memecahkan rel, stop loss menendang dalam
  5. Meningkatkan saiz kedudukan kepada piramid kerugian
  6. Menetapkan pelbagai mengambil mata keuntungan untuk memastikan keuntungan

Analisis Kelebihan

Kelebihan utama strategi ini:

  1. Menggunakan penapis Kalman untuk meramalkan harga, lebih lancar dan lebih tepat daripada penunjuk lain
  2. Rel stop loss adaptif boleh menyesuaikan berdasarkan keadaan sebenar untuk memaksimumkan keuntungan
  3. Mekanisme piramid dan pelbagai mengambil keuntungan untuk menghasilkan lebih banyak keuntungan dalam pergerakan trend
  4. Parameter yang sangat boleh dikonfigurasi untuk pelarasan fleksibel

Analisis Risiko

Risiko utama strategi ini:

  1. StartStop boleh mencetuskan dengan kerap dalam pergerakan yang berbeza, meningkatkan kekerapan perdagangan dan yuran
  2. Walaupun mekanisme piramid boleh memperkuat keuntungan dalam trend, ia juga meningkatkan risiko dan DD
  3. Walaupun mengambil keuntungan berganda memastikan keuntungan, ia juga mengurangkan potensi keuntungan

Risiko boleh dikurangkan melalui:

  1. Menghentikan dagangan di pasaran julat
  2. Sesuaikan piramida dan mengambil parameter keuntungan untuk mengurangkan risiko

Arah pengoptimuman

Strategi ini boleh dioptimumkan lagi melalui:

  1. Tambah penapis untuk mengenal pasti trend dan julat
  2. Masukkan lebih banyak penunjuk untuk menapis isyarat palsu
  3. Pertimbangkan untuk membersihkan semua kedudukan jika kerugian melebihi ambang tertentu
  4. Tambah modul pengukuran kedudukan
  5. Set parameter yang berbeza boleh diuji semula dan dioptimumkan untuk pasaran yang berbeza

Ringkasan

Ringkasnya, strategi rel stop loss adaptif ini menggabungkan ramalan Kalman dan kehilangan berhenti dinamik secara unik. Dengan penyesuaian parameter yang betul, ia dapat mencapai hasil yang baik.


/*backtest
start: 2023-06-01 00:00:00
end: 2024-01-01 00:00:00
period: 1d
basePeriod: 1h
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// © BigCoinHunter

    //  ____  _        _____      _       _    _             _            
    // |  _ \(_)      / ____|    (_)     | |  | |           | |           
    // | |_) |_  __ _| |     ___  _ _ __ | |__| |_   _ _ __ | |_ ___ _ __ 
    // |  _ <| |/ _` | |    / _ \| | '_ \|  __  | | | | '_ \| __/ _ \ '__|
    // | |_) | | (_| | |___| (_) | | | | | |  | | |_| | | | | ||  __/ |   
    // |____/|_|\__, |\_____\___/|_|_| |_|_|  |_|\__,_|_| |_|\__\___|_|   
    //           __/ |                                                    
    //          |___/                                                     

//@version=5
strategy(title='Loft Strategy V4', overlay=true, 
     pyramiding=0, default_qty_type=strategy.cash, 
     default_qty_value=100, initial_capital=10000, 
     currency=currency.USD, commission_value=0.05, 
     commission_type=strategy.commission.percent, 
     process_orders_on_close=true)

//-------------- fetch user inputs ------------------
gain = input.float(title="Kalman Gain:", defval=100.0, minval=1, maxval=10000.0, step=1)
src = input(defval=close, title='Source:')

stopPercentBase = input.float(title='Beginning Approach(%)', defval=5.0, minval=0.1, maxval=30.0, step=0.1)
stopPercentMin = input.float(title='Final Approach(%)', defval=1.0, minval=0.1, maxval=30.0, step=0.1)
downStep = input.float(title='Approach Decrease Step', defval=0.001, minval=0.0, maxval = 5, step=0.001)
//stopPercentDeviation = input.float(title="Approach Deviation", defval=1.0, minval=0.1, maxval = 5.0, step=0.1)

baseOrderQty = input.float(title="Base Order Quantity", defval=100.0, minval=0.001)
maxOrderCount = input.int(title="Max Safe Order Attemp", defval=4, minval=1)
priceDeviation = input.float(title="Safe Order Deviation", defval=3, minval=1.0, step=0.1)
profitDeviation = input.float(title="Profit Deviation", defval=1.0, minval=1.0, maxval=10, step=0.1)
maxTakeProfit = input.float(title="Max Take Profit(%)", defval=25.0, maxval=100, step=0.1)
maxOrderQty = input.float(title="Max Order Quantity", defval=1.0, minval=0.01)

baseTP1 = input.float(title="TP1(%)", defval=1.0, minval=0.0, maxval=100.0, step=0.1, inline="0")
qt1     = input.int(title="QT1(%):", defval=40, minval=1, maxval=100, step=5, inline="0")

baseTP2 = input.float(title="TP2(%)", defval=3.0, minval=0.0, maxval=100.0, step=0.1, inline="1")
qt2     = input.int(title="QT2(%):", defval=30, minval=1, maxval=100, step=5, inline="1")

baseTP3 = input.float(title="TP3(%)", defval=5.0, minval=0.0, maxval=100.0, step=0.1, inline="2")
qt3     = input.int(title="QT3(%):", defval=30, minval=1, maxval=100, step=5, inline="2")

initialStopLoss = input.float(title="Stop Loss(%)", defval=0.0, minval=0.0, maxval=100.0, step=0.1)

longEntry = input.bool(defval=true, title= 'Long Entry', inline="3")
shortEntry = input.bool(defval=true, title='Short Entry', inline="3")

useSafeStop2 = input.bool(defval = true, title="Safe Stop After TP2", inline="6")
useSafeStop1 = input.bool(defval = false, title="Safe Stop After TP1", inline="6")

//---------- backtest range setup ------------
fromDay   = input.int(defval = 1, title = "From Date:", minval = 1, maxval = 31, inline="4")
fromMonth = input.int(defval = 1, title = "/", minval = 1, maxval = 12, inline="4")
fromYear  = input.int(defval = 2021, title = "/", minval = 2010, inline="4")
toDay     = input.int(defval = 30, title = "To__ Date:", minval = 1, maxval = 31, inline="5")
toMonth   = input.int(defval = 12, title = "/", minval = 1, maxval = 12, inline="5")
toYear    = input.int(defval = 2022, title = "/", minval = 2010, inline="5")

//------------ time interval setup -----------
start     = timestamp(fromYear, fromMonth, fromDay, 00, 00)  // backtest start window
finish    = timestamp(toYear, toMonth, toDay, 23, 59)        // backtest finish window
window()  => true // create function "within window of time"


//------- define the order comments ------
enterLongComment = ""
exitLongComment = ""

enterShortComment = ""
exitShortComment = ""

longTPSL = ""
longTP = ""
longSL = ""

shortTPSL = ""
shortTP = ""
shortSL = ""

//--------- Define global variables -----------
var bool long = true
var bool stoppedOutLong = false
var bool stoppedOutShort = false
var float kf = 0.0
var float velo = 0.0

var float orderQty = baseOrderQty
var float stopLoss = initialStopLoss
var bool isProfit = false
var int barindex = 1
var int winCounter = 0
var int winCounterBuffer = 0
var int failCounter = 0

var float tp1 = baseTP1
var float tp2 = baseTP2
var float tp3 = baseTP3

var bool isTakeTP1 = false
var bool isTakeTP2 = false  
var bool isTakeTP3 = false  
var bool isLastProfit = true

var float stopPercentMax = stopPercentBase
var float stopPercent = stopPercentBase
var float stopLine = 0.0

var labelColor = color.blue


//------ kalman filter calculation --------
dk = src - nz(kf[1], src)
smooth = nz(kf[1], src) + dk * math.sqrt(gain / 10000 * 2)
velo := nz(velo[1], 0) + gain / 10000 * dk
kf := smooth + velo


//--------- calculate the loft stopLoss line ---------
//stopPercentMax := isLastProfit ? stopPercentBase : (stopPercentBase * stopPercentDeviation)

if long == true
    stopLine := kf - (kf * (stopPercent / 100))
    
    if long[1] == true and stopLine <= stopLine[1]
        stopLine := stopLine[1]
    else if (long[1] == true)
        stopPercent := stopPercent - downStep
        if(stopPercent < stopPercentMin)
            stopPercent := stopPercentMin
    
    if(kf < stopLine)
        long := false
        stopPercent := stopPercentMax
        stopLine := kf + (kf * (stopPercent / 100))
        
else
    stopLine := kf + (kf * (stopPercent / 100))
    
    if long[1] == false and stopLine >= stopLine[1]
        stopLine := stopLine[1]
    else if(long[1] == false)
        stopPercent := stopPercent - downStep
        if(stopPercent < stopPercentMin)
            stopPercent := stopPercentMin
            
    if(kf > stopLine)
        long := true
        stopPercent := stopPercentMax
        stopLine := kf - (kf * (stopPercent / 100))


//------------------- determine buy and sell points ---------------------
buySignall = window() and long  and (not stoppedOutLong)
sellSignall = window() and (not long)  and (not stoppedOutShort)
                    
                    
if longEntry and shortEntry 

    if buySignall and baseTP1 <= 0.0
            
        if strategy.position_size < 0
            if close < strategy.position_avg_price
                isLastProfit := true
        else if strategy.position_size == 0
            if strategy.wintrades > winCounter //strategy.wintrades[ barindex ]
                isLastProfit := true
        else
            isLastProfit := false
        
    else if sellSignall and baseTP1 <= 0.0
        
        if strategy.position_size > 0
            if close > strategy.position_avg_price
                isLastProfit := true
        else if strategy.position_size == 0
            if strategy.wintrades > winCounter //strategy.wintrades[ barindex ]
                isLastProfit := true
        else
            isLastProfit := false
    
    else if isTakeTP2 == true
        isLastProfit := true
    else
        isLastProfit := false

else if longEntry
    if sellSignall
        winCounterBuffer := winCounter
    if buySignall
        if winCounter > winCounterBuffer
            isLastProfit := true
        else
            isLastProfit := false

else if shortEntry
    if buySignall
        winCounterBuffer := winCounter
    if sellSignall
        if winCounter > winCounterBuffer
            isLastProfit := true
        else
            isLastProfit := false
    

//------------- set the deviations ------------
var float maxOrderSize = (baseOrderQty * math.pow(priceDeviation, maxOrderCount - 1))

if buySignall or sellSignall
    
    if isLastProfit == false
    
        orderQty := orderQty * priceDeviation
        
        tp1 := tp1 * profitDeviation
        tp2 := tp2 * profitDeviation
        tp3 := tp3 * profitDeviation
        
        tp1 := math.min(tp1, maxTakeProfit)
        tp2 := math.min(tp2, maxTakeProfit)
        tp3 := math.min(tp3, maxTakeProfit)
        
        if orderQty > maxOrderSize
            failCounter := failCounter + 1
            orderQty := baseOrderQty
            tp1 := baseTP1
            tp2 := baseTP2
            tp3 := baseTP3
                
    else
        orderQty := baseOrderQty
        tp1 := baseTP1
        tp2 := baseTP2
        tp3 := baseTP3


// ----------------- put debug labels -------------------
if orderQty == maxOrderSize
    labelColor := color.red
else
    labelColor := isLastProfit ? color.lime : color.yellow

if longEntry and shortEntry
    if buySignall or sellSignall
        label.new( x=bar_index, y=high, text="Qty:"+str.tostring(math.min(orderQty, maxOrderQty))+" | Worst Case:"+str.tostring(failCounter) ,color = labelColor  )
else if longEntry
    if buySignall
        label.new( x=bar_index, y=high, text="Qty:"+str.tostring(math.min(orderQty, maxOrderQty))+" | Worst Case:"+str.tostring(failCounter) ,color = labelColor  )
else if shortEntry
    if sellSignall
        label.new( x=bar_index, y=high, text="Qty:"+str.tostring(math.min(orderQty, maxOrderQty))+" | Worst Case:"+str.tostring(failCounter) ,color = labelColor  )



//---------- execute the strategy -----------------
nz(orderQty, baseOrderQty)

if longEntry and shortEntry

    if long
        strategy.close_all( when = buySignall, comment = exitShortComment)
        strategy.entry("LONG", strategy.long, when = buySignall, qty=math.min(orderQty, maxOrderQty), comment = enterLongComment)
        stoppedOutLong := true
        stoppedOutShort := false
            
    else
        strategy.close_all(when=sellSignall, comment = exitLongComment)
        strategy.entry("SHORT", strategy.short, when = sellSignall, qty=math.min(orderQty, maxOrderQty), comment = enterShortComment)
        stoppedOutLong  := false
        stoppedOutShort := true

else if(longEntry)
    strategy.entry("LONG", strategy.long,  when = buySignall, qty=math.min(orderQty, maxOrderQty), comment = enterLongComment)
    strategy.close("LONG", when = sellSignall, comment = exitLongComment)
    if long 
        stoppedOutLong := true
        stoppedOutShort := false
    else
        stoppedOutLong  := false
        stoppedOutShort := true

else if(shortEntry)
    strategy.entry("SHORT", strategy.short, when = sellSignall, qty=math.min(orderQty, maxOrderQty), comment = enterShortComment)
    strategy.close("SHORT", when = buySignall, comment = exitShortComment)
    if not long
        stoppedOutShort := true
        stoppedOutLong  := false
    else
        stoppedOutShort := false
        stoppedOutLong := true



//--------- calculate the TP/SL entries -----------
longProfitPrice1  = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 + tp1 * 0.01)
longProfitPrice2  = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 + tp2 * 0.01)
longProfitPrice3  = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 + tp3 * 0.01)
        
shortProfitPrice1  = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 - tp1 * 0.01)
shortProfitPrice2  = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 - tp2 * 0.01)
shortProfitPrice3  = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 - tp3 * 0.01)

longStopPrice = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 - stopLoss * 0.01)
shortStopPrice = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 + stopLoss * 0.01)

shortSafeStopPrice2 = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 - 0.2 * 0.01)
longSafeStopPrice2 = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 + 0.2 * 0.01)

longSafeStopPrice1 = stopLine
shortSafeStopPrice1 = stopLine

//----------- calculate TP quantity values -----------
takeQty1 = math.min(orderQty, maxOrderQty) * qt1 / 100
takeQty2 = math.min(orderQty, maxOrderQty) * qt2 / 100
takeQty3 = math.min(orderQty, maxOrderQty) * qt3 / 100


//----------------- take profit and stop loss processes -----------------
if strategy.position_size > 0

    if close > longProfitPrice1 and tp1 > 0 and isTakeTP1 == false
        strategy.close(id="LONG", qty=takeQty1, comment = "longTP 1")
        isTakeTP1 := true
    
    if close > longProfitPrice2 and tp2 > 0 and isTakeTP2 == false
        strategy.close(id="LONG", qty=takeQty2, comment = "longTP 2")
        isTakeTP2 := true
    
    if close > longProfitPrice3 and tp3 > 0 and isTakeTP3 == false
        strategy.close(id="LONG", qty=takeQty3, comment = "longTP 3")
        isTakeTP3 := true
    
    if isTakeTP2 == true and useSafeStop2
        strategy.exit(id="LONG", stop=longSafeStopPrice2, comment = "Long Safe Stop2")
    if isTakeTP1 == true and useSafeStop1
        strategy.exit(id="LONG", stop=longSafeStopPrice1, comment = "Long Safe Stop1")
    
            
if strategy.position_size < 0

    if close < shortProfitPrice1 and tp1 > 0 and isTakeTP1 == false
        strategy.close(id="SHORT", qty=takeQty1, comment = "Short TP 1")
        isTakeTP1 := true
    
    if close < shortProfitPrice2 and tp2 > 0 and isTakeTP2 == false
        strategy.close(id="SHORT", qty=takeQty2, comment = "Short TP 2")
        isTakeTP2 := true
    
    if close < shortProfitPrice3 and tp3 > 0 and isTakeTP3 == false
        strategy.close(id="SHORT", qty=takeQty3, comment = "Short TP 3")
        isTakeTP3 := true
    
    if isTakeTP2 == true and useSafeStop2
        strategy.exit(id="SHORT", stop=shortSafeStopPrice2, comment = "Short Safe Stop2")    
    if isTakeTP1 == true and useSafeStop1
        strategy.exit(id="SHORT", stop=shortSafeStopPrice1, comment = "Short Safe Stop1")

if(initialStopLoss>0.0)
    if ( strategy.position_size > 0 )
        strategy.exit(id="LONG",  stop=longStopPrice, comment = "Long Stop Loss")

    else if ( strategy.position_size < 0 )
        strategy.exit(id="SHORT",  stop=shortStopPrice,  comment = "Short Stop Loss")
        
    
    
if buySignall or sellSignall
    
    isTakeTP1 := false
    isTakeTP2 := false  
    isTakeTP3 := false
    
    // winCounter := strategy.wintrades
    

//------------- plot charts ---------------------
lineColor1 = long ? color.green : color.red
lineColor2 = long ? color.aqua : color.fuchsia

kalmanPlot = plot(kf, color=lineColor1, linewidth=3, title = "Kalman Filter")
stopPlot = plot(stopLine, color=lineColor2, linewidth=2, title = "Stop Loss Line")












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