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Estratégia de média móvel cruzada de vários prazos

Autora:ChaoZhang, Data: 2023-10-09 16:41:04
Tags:

Resumo

Esta estratégia baseia-se no sistema de cruzamento de média móvel, usando cruz de ouro e cruz de morte de médias móveis em diferentes prazos para determinar pontos de entrada e saída.

Estratégia lógica

A estratégia utiliza dois conjuntos de médias móveis, MA rápido e MA lento. O MA rápido tem um período mais curto para capturar a tendência de curto prazo, enquanto o MA lento tem um período mais longo para a tendência de longo prazo. Quando o MA rápido cruza acima do MA lento, ocorre uma cruz de ouro, sinalizando uma tendência de alta.

No código, o MA rápido é ma1, o MA lento é ma2. Ambos ma1 e ma2 podem ser tipos diferentes como SMA, EMA, com períodos personalizáveis. ma1 representa tendência de curto prazo com período mais curto, ma2 representa tendência de longo prazo com período mais longo.

Quando ma1 golden cruza ma2, um sinal longo é gerado. Quando ma1 morte cruza ma2, um sinal curto é gerado. Na negociação real, recursos como trailing stop loss, take profit e stop loss podem ser adicionados para bloquear lucros e controlar riscos.

Análise das vantagens

A estratégia apresenta as seguintes vantagens:

  1. Lógica simples e fácil de entender.

  2. Flexível na escolha de diferentes tipos e parâmetros de AMP para diferentes condições de mercado.

  3. Desenho de quadros de tempo múltiplos para capturar tendências de curto e longo prazo.

  4. Regras de entrada personalizáveis para controlar estritamente a frequência de negociação.

  5. Configurabilidade de stop loss e take profit para gerir eficazmente os riscos.

  6. A tendência de stop loss permite que o lucro corra.

  7. Parâmetros otimizáveis para maior robustez.

Análise de riscos

A estratégia apresenta igualmente os seguintes riscos:

  1. O atraso da emissão de cruzamento de duas MA pode perder o melhor momento de reversão.

  2. Períodos de MA inadequados podem gerar mais sinais falsos.

  3. As reversões súbitas podem atingir o stop loss.

  4. O preço pode permanecer a um lado da MA durante períodos prolongados em mercados em tendência.

  5. Super-otimização sobre parâmetros ajustados.

Medidas de gestão de riscos:

  1. Adicione filtros para evitar falsos sinais de fuga.

  2. Teste e otimize os períodos de MA com base nos princípios de negociação.

  3. Controlo cuidadoso do risco e colocação razoável de stop loss.

  4. Aceita o custo necessário da paciência.

  5. Teste de robustez em diferentes condições de mercado.

Orientações de otimização

A estratégia pode ser melhorada pelos seguintes aspectos:

  1. Teste mais tipos de MA, como média móvel ponderada.

  2. Adicionar períodos dinâmicos com base na volatilidade.

  3. Adicione filtros como tempo e fundamentos às regras de entrada.

  4. Usar paradas adaptativas que se ajustem à volatilidade do mercado.

  5. Construir sistema de otimização de parâmetros para backtesting.

  6. Incorporar aprendizado de máquina para otimizar parâmetros e sinais de filtragem.

Conclusão

Em conclusão, esta estratégia de crossover de média móvel multiframe tem uma lógica simples e clara para seguir as tendências usando crossovers MA rápidos e lentos. Com a seleção adequada de parâmetros, regras de entrada / saída otimizadas e controle de risco, ele pode alcançar lucros constantes. No entanto, os usuários precisam tolerar riscos atrasados e custos de tempo de espera.


/*backtest
start: 2023-09-08 00:00:00
end: 2023-10-08 00:00:00
period: 4h
basePeriod: 15m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

//@version=3
// The majority of this script I took from the Autoview website. There are some typos in the original that I've fixed, some things I've added, things I will add, and I'm tired pulling my strategy code out and uploading this to pastebin for people.
// DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor, this is not financial advice, do not use this code without first doing your own research, etc, etc, it's not my fault when you lose your house.

strategy("Moving Averages Cross - MTF - Strategy", "MA Cross", overlay=true, pyramiding=0, initial_capital=100000, currency=currency.USD, default_qty_type = strategy.percent_of_equity, default_qty_value = 100, commission_type=strategy.commission.percent, commission_value=0.1)

bgcolor ( color=black, transp=40, title='Blackground', editable=true)

///////////////////////////////////////////////
//* Backtesting Period Selector | Component *//
///////////////////////////////////////////////

//* https://www.tradingview.com/script/eCC1cvxQ-Backtesting-Period-Selector-Component *//
//* https://www.tradingview.com/u/pbergden/ *//
//* Modifications made *//

testStartYear = input(2018, "Backtest Start Year") 
testStartMonth = input(1, "Backtest Start Month")
testStartDay = input(1, "Backtest Start Day")
testPeriodStart = timestamp(testStartYear,testStartMonth,testStartDay,00,00)

testStopYear = input(9999, "Backtest Stop Year")
testStopMonth = input(12, "Backtest Stop Month")
testStopDay = input(31, "Backtest Stop Day")
testPeriodStop = timestamp(testStopYear,testStopMonth,testStopDay,0,0)

testPeriod() => true

/////////////////////////////////////
//* Put your strategy logic below *//
/////////////////////////////////////

sp1 = input("----", title="--------Moving Average 1----------", options=["----"])
maUseRes1   = input(defval = false, title = "Use Different Resolution?")
//maReso1     = input(defval = "60", title = "Set Resolution", type = resolution)
maReso1     = input(defval='60', title = "Set Resolution Minutes")
maType1     = input("EMA", title="MA", options=["SMA", "EMA", "DEMA", "TEMA", "WMA", "VWMA", "SMMA", "Hull", "LSMA", "ALMA"])
maSource1   = input(defval = close, title = "Source")
maLength1   = input(defval = 15, title = "Period", minval = 1)
lsmaOffset1 = input(defval = 1, title = "Least Squares (LSMA) Only - Offset Value", minval = 0)
almaOffset1 = input(defval = 0.85, title = "Arnaud Legoux (ALMA) Only - Offset Value", minval = 0, step = 0.01)
almaSigma1  = input(defval = 6, title = "Arnaud Legoux (ALMA) Only - Sigma Value", minval = 0)

sp2 = input("----", title="--------Moving Average 2----------", options=["----"])
maUseRes2   = input(defval = false, title = "Use Different Resolution?")
//maReso2    = input(defval = "60", title = "Set Resolution", type = resolution)
maReso2     = input(defval='60', title = "Set Resolution Minutes")
maType2    = input("EMA", title="MA", options=["SMA", "EMA", "DEMA", "TEMA", "WMA", "VWMA", "SMMA", "Hull", "LSMA", "ALMA"])
maSource2   = input(defval = close, title = "Source")
maLength2   = input(defval = 30, title = "Period", minval = 1)
lsmaOffset2 = input(defval = 1, title = "Least Squares (LSMA) Only - Offset Value", minval = 0)
almaOffset2 = input(defval = 0.85, title = "Arnaud Legoux (ALMA) Only - Offset Value", minval = 0, step = 0.01)
almaSigma2  = input(defval = 6, title = "Arnaud Legoux (ALMA) Only - Sigma Value", minval = 0)

//Function from @JayRogers thank you man awesome work
variant(type, src, len, lsmaOffset, almaOffset, almaSigma) =>
    v1 = sma(src, len)                                                  // Simple
    v2 = ema(src, len)                                                  // Exponential
    v3 = 2 * v2 - ema(v2, len)                                          // Double Exponential
    v4 = 3 * (v2 - ema(v2, len)) + ema(ema(v2, len), len)               // Triple Exponential
    v5 = wma(src, len)                                                  // Weighted
    v6 = vwma(src, len)                                                 // Volume Weighted
    v7 = na(v5[1]) ? sma(src, len) : (v5[1] * (len - 1) + src) / len    // Smoothed
    v8 = wma(2 * wma(src, len / 2) - wma(src, len), round(sqrt(len)))   // Hull
    v9 = linreg(src, len, lsmaOffset)                                   // Least Squares
    v10 = alma(src, len, almaOffset, almaSigma)                         // Arnaud Legoux
    type=="EMA"?v2 : type=="DEMA"?v3 : type=="TEMA"?v4 : type=="WMA"?v5 : type=="VWMA"?v6 : type=="SMMA"?v7 : type=="Hull"?v8 : type=="LSMA"?v9 : type=="ALMA"?v10 : v1
//Different resolution function    
reso(exp, res, use) => use ? security(tickerid, res, exp) : exp    
    
ma1 = reso(variant(maType1, maSource1, maLength1, lsmaOffset1, almaOffset1, almaSigma1), maReso1, maUseRes1)
ma2 = reso(variant(maType2, maSource2, maLength2, lsmaOffset2, almaOffset2, almaSigma2), maReso2, maUseRes2)

plotma1 = plot(ma1, color=green, tranps=50, linewidth = 2 )
plotma2 = plot(ma2, color=red,   tranps=50, linewidth = 2 )

// Long/Short Logic
longLogic =  crossover(ma1,ma2) ? 1 : 0
shortLogic = crossunder(ma1,ma2) ? 1 : 0

//////////////////////////
//* Strategy Component *//
//////////////////////////

isLong = input(false, "Longs Only")
isShort = input(false, "Shorts Only")
isFlip = input(false, "Flip the Opens")

long = longLogic
short = shortLogic

if isFlip
    long := shortLogic
    short := longLogic
else
    long := longLogic
    short := shortLogic

if isLong
    long := long
    short := na

if isShort
    long := na
    short := short
    
////////////////////////////////
//======[ Signal Count ]======//
////////////////////////////////

sectionLongs = 0
sectionLongs := nz(sectionLongs[1])
sectionShorts = 0
sectionShorts := nz(sectionShorts[1])

if long
    sectionLongs := sectionLongs + 1
    sectionShorts := 0

if short
    sectionLongs := 0
    sectionShorts := sectionShorts + 1

//////////////////////////////
//======[ Pyramiding ]======//
//////////////////////////////

pyrl = input(1, "Pyramiding less than") // If your count is less than this number
pyre = input(0, "Pyramiding equal to") // If your count is equal to this number
pyrg = input(1000000, "Pyramiding greater than") // If your count is greater than this number

longCondition = long and sectionLongs <= pyrl or long and sectionLongs >= pyrg or long and sectionLongs == pyre ? 1 : 0
shortCondition = short and sectionShorts <= pyrl or short and sectionShorts >= pyrg or short and sectionShorts == pyre ? 1 : 0

////////////////////////////////
//======[ Entry Prices ]======//
////////////////////////////////

last_open_longCondition = na
last_open_shortCondition = na
last_open_longCondition := longCondition ? close : nz(last_open_longCondition[1])
last_open_shortCondition := shortCondition ? close : nz(last_open_shortCondition[1])

////////////////////////////////////
//======[ Open Order Count ]======//
////////////////////////////////////

sectionLongConditions = 0
sectionLongConditions := nz(sectionLongConditions[1])
sectionShortConditions = 0
sectionShortConditions := nz(sectionShortConditions[1])

if longCondition
    sectionLongConditions := sectionLongConditions + 1
    sectionShortConditions := 0

if shortCondition
    sectionLongConditions := 0
    sectionShortConditions := sectionShortConditions + 1
    
///////////////////////////////////////////////
//======[ Position Check (long/short) ]======//
///////////////////////////////////////////////

last_longCondition = na
last_shortCondition = na
last_longCondition := longCondition ? time : nz(last_longCondition[1])
last_shortCondition := shortCondition ? time : nz(last_shortCondition[1])

in_longCondition = last_longCondition > last_shortCondition
in_shortCondition = last_shortCondition > last_longCondition

/////////////////////////////////////
//======[ Position Averages ]======//
/////////////////////////////////////

totalLongs = 0.0
totalLongs := nz(totalLongs[1])
totalShorts = 0.0
totalShorts := nz(totalShorts[1])
averageLongs = 0.0
averageLongs := nz(averageLongs[1])
averageShorts = 0.0
averageShorts := nz(averageShorts[1]) 

if longCondition
    totalLongs := totalLongs + last_open_longCondition
    totalShorts := 0.0

if shortCondition
    totalLongs := 0.0
    totalShorts := totalShorts + last_open_shortCondition

averageLongs := totalLongs / sectionLongConditions
averageShorts := totalShorts / sectionShortConditions

/////////////////////////////////
//======[ Trailing Stop ]======//
/////////////////////////////////

isTS = input(false, "Trailing Stop")
tsi = input(1000, "Activate Trailing Stop Price (%). Divided by 100 (1 = 0.01%)") / 100 
ts = input(575, "Trailing Stop (%). Divided by 100 (1 = 0.01%)") / 100

last_high = na
last_low = na
last_high_short = na
last_low_short = na
last_high := not in_longCondition ? na : in_longCondition and (na(last_high[1]) or high > nz(last_high[1])) ? high : nz(last_high[1])
last_high_short := not in_shortCondition ? na : in_shortCondition and (na(last_high[1]) or high > nz(last_high[1])) ? high : nz(last_high[1])
last_low := not in_shortCondition ? na : in_shortCondition and (na(last_low[1]) or low < nz(last_low[1])) ? low : nz(last_low[1])
last_low_short := not in_longCondition ? na : in_longCondition and (na(last_low[1]) or low < nz(last_low[1])) ? low : nz(last_low[1])

long_ts = isTS and not na(last_high) and low <= last_high - last_high / 100 * ts and longCondition == 0 and last_high >= averageLongs + averageLongs / 100 * tsi
short_ts = isTS and not na(last_low) and high >= last_low + last_low / 100 * ts and shortCondition == 0 and last_low <= averageShorts - averageShorts/ 100 * tsi

///////////////////////////////
//======[ Take Profit ]======//
///////////////////////////////

isTP = input(false, "Take Profit")
tp = input(300, "Take Profit (%). Divided by 100 (1 = 0.01%)") / 100
long_tp = isTP and close > averageLongs + averageLongs / 100 * tp and not longCondition
short_tp = isTP and close < averageShorts - averageShorts / 100 * tp and not shortCondition

/////////////////////////////
//======[ Stop Loss ]======//
/////////////////////////////

isSL = input(false, "Stop Loss")
sl = input(575, "Stop Loss (%). Divided by 100 (1 = 0.01%)") / 100
long_sl = isSL and close < averageLongs - averageLongs / 100 * sl and longCondition == 0
short_sl = isSL and close > averageShorts + averageShorts / 100 * sl and shortCondition == 0

/////////////////////////////////
//======[ Close Signals ]======//
/////////////////////////////////

longClose = long_tp or long_sl or long_ts  ? 1 : 0
shortClose = short_tp or short_sl or short_ts ? 1: 0

///////////////////////////////
//======[ Plot Colors ]======//
///////////////////////////////

longCloseCol = na
shortCloseCol = na
longCloseCol := long_tp ? purple : long_sl ? maroon : long_ts ? blue : longCloseCol[1]
shortCloseCol := short_tp ? purple : short_sl ? maroon : short_ts ? blue : shortCloseCol[1]
tpColor = isTP and in_longCondition ? purple : isTP and in_shortCondition ? purple : white
slColor = isSL and in_longCondition ? red : isSL and in_shortCondition ? red : white

//////////////////////////////////
//======[ Strategy Plots ]======//
//////////////////////////////////

// Comment out these lines to use alerts
plot(isTS and in_longCondition ? averageLongs + averageLongs / 100 * tsi : na, "Long Trailing Activate", blue, style=3, linewidth=2)
plot(isTS and in_longCondition and last_high >= averageLongs +  averageLongs / 100 * tsi ? last_high - last_high / 100 * ts : na, "Long Trailing", fuchsia, style=2, linewidth=3)
plot(isTS and in_shortCondition ? averageShorts - averageShorts/ 100 * tsi : na, "Short Trailing Activate", blue, style=3, linewidth=2)
plot(isTS and in_shortCondition and last_low <= averageShorts - averageShorts/ 100 * tsi ? last_low + last_low / 100 * ts : na, "Short Trailing", fuchsia, style=2, linewidth=3)
plot(isTP and in_longCondition and last_high < averageLongs + averageLongs / 100 * tp ? averageLongs + averageLongs / 100 * tp : na, "Long TP", tpColor, style=3, linewidth=2)
plot(isTP and in_shortCondition and last_low > averageShorts - averageShorts / 100 * tp ? averageShorts - averageShorts / 100 * tp : na, "Short TP", tpColor, style=3, linewidth=2)
plot(isSL and in_longCondition and last_low_short > averageLongs - averageLongs / 100 * sl ? averageLongs - averageLongs / 100 * sl : na, "Long SL", slColor, style=3, linewidth=2)
plot(isSL and in_shortCondition and last_high_short < averageShorts + averageShorts / 100 * sl ? averageShorts + averageShorts / 100 * sl : na, "Short SL", slColor, style=3, linewidth=2)

///////////////////////////////
//======[ Alert Plots ]======//
///////////////////////////////


// Uncomment to use Alerts, or the new Signal Plots, but not both
// Old Signal Plots
//plot(longCondition, "Long", green)
//plot(shortCondition, "Short", red)
//plot(longClose, "Long Close", longCloseCol)
//plot(shortClose, "Short Close", shortCloseCol)

// Uncomment for your alerts
//alertcondition(condition=longCondition, title="Long", message="")
//alertcondition(condition=shortCondition, title="Short", message="")
//alertcondition(condition=longClose, title="Long Close", message="")
//alertcondition(condition=shortClose, title="Short Close", message="")

///////////////////////////////////
//======[ Reset Variables ]======//
///////////////////////////////////

if longClose or not in_longCondition
    averageLongs := 0
    totalLongs := 0.0
    sectionLongs := 0
    sectionLongConditions := 0

if shortClose or not in_shortCondition
    averageShorts := 0
    totalShorts := 0.0
    sectionShorts := 0
    sectionShortConditions := 0

////////////////////////////////////////////
//======[ Strategy Entry and Exits ]======//
////////////////////////////////////////////

// Comment out to use alerts
if testPeriod()
    strategy.entry("Long", 1, when=longCondition)
    strategy.entry("Short", 0,  when=shortCondition)
    strategy.close("Long", when=longClose)
    strategy.close("Short", when=shortClose)

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