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Tamanho de ordem incremental Tendência de retração de Fibonacci Seguindo a estratégia

Autora:ChaoZhang, Data: 2023-10-18 11:40:01
Tags:

Resumo

Trata-se de uma estratégia de ruptura de momento relativamente complexa que incorpora múltiplos indicadores técnicos para julgamento e implementa ordens de pirâmide de vários estágios em diferentes direções e fases para alcançar o objetivo de escalar e sair.

Princípios

A estratégia combina principalmente o indicador de impulso MACD, o indicador de sobrecompra e sobrevenda RSI e as Bandas de Bollinger para julgamento direcional. Quando a linha MACD está acima de 0 e o RSI está abaixo da linha de sobrevenda, é um sinal longo. Quando a linha MACD está abaixo de 0 e o RSI está acima da linha de sobrecompra, é um sinal curto. Também incorpora a quebra do trilho superior e inferior das Bandas de Bollinger para confirmação adicional dos sinais de negociação.

Na implementação específica, a estratégia julga primeiro o desempenho da linha MACD e do RSI para confirmar os fundamentos. Em seguida, de acordo com a quebra do trilho superior e inferior das Bandas de Bollinger, ele toma ordens de pirâmide em diferentes tamanhos. Em expressão de alta, ele vai gradualmente longo com crescente tamanho perto do trilho inferior das Bandas de Bollinger. Em expressão de baixa, ele vai gradualmente curto com crescente tamanho perto do trilho superior das Bandas de Bollinger. Ao entrar e sair em diferentes direções e preços diferentes, ele pode obter um lucro acumulado maior.

Enquanto isso, a estratégia também rastreia o preço mais alto e mais baixo para definir stop loss e take profit, gerenciando as ordens de acordo.

Vantagens

A combinação de múltiplos indicadores evita uma avaliação errada de um único instrumento.
A ampliação com várias etapas pode aumentar a margem de lucro.
Definir stop loss e take profit ajuda a evitar perdas de picos elevados.
Descolamento controlado, não haverá grandes perdas.

Riscos e soluções

A quebra das bandas de Bollinger no trilho superior e inferior não é 100% confiável, pode ver alguns sinais falsos.
A pirâmide em etapas requer uma compreensão precisa do ritmo do mercado, inversões rápidas podem levar a grandes perdas.
É necessário observar a liquidez dos instrumentos de negociação, a baixa liquidez não é adequada para piramidagem de grandes lotes.
Backtest ≠ live, custos como spread e comissão devem ser considerados na negociação ao vivo.

Optimização

Pode testar diferentes combinações de parâmetros como período de Bollinger, multiplicador de STD, parâmetros RSI para encontrar o ideal.
Pode explorar outras técnicas de escala, como fração fixa, critério Kelly, etc.
Pode implementar otimização dinâmica de parâmetros com aprendizado de máquina, etc.
Pode incorporar mais fontes de dados como análise de sentimentos, dados sociais para ajudar no julgamento.
Pode explorar o spread de calendário de futuros para arbitragem, expandir ainda mais o espaço de lucro.

Resumo

Esta estratégia usa de forma abrangente vários indicadores técnicos, toma pirâmide escalonada, gerencia riscos com stop loss e take profit, tornando-se uma tendência relativamente completa após a estratégia. Mas os riscos como sinais falsos e inversões rápidas devem ser alertados, ajustando adequadamente os parâmetros e o dimensionamento da posição podem levar a retornos excessivos mais constantes.

/*backtest
start: 2022-10-11 00:00:00
end: 2023-10-17 00:00:00
period: 1d
basePeriod: 1h
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

//@version=2
strategy(title="Incremental Order size +", shorttitle="Strategy", overlay=true, default_qty_value=1, pyramiding=10)

//Heiken Ashi
isHA = input(false, "HA Candles", bool)

//MACD
fastLength = 12
slowlength = 26
MACDLength = 9

MACD = ema(close, fastLength) - ema(close, slowlength)
aMACD = ema(MACD, MACDLength)
delta = MACD - aMACD

//Bollinger Bands Exponential
src = open
len = 18
e = ema(src,len)
evar = (src - e)*(src - e)
evar2 = (sum(evar,len))/len
std = sqrt(evar2)
Multiplier = input(3, minval = 0.01, title = "# of STDEV's")
upband = e + (Multiplier * std)
dnband = e - (Multiplier * std)

//EMA
ema3 = ema(close, 3)

//RSIplot
length = 45
overSold = 90
overBought = 10
price = close

vrsi = rsi(price, length)

notna = not na(vrsi)

macdlong = crossover(delta, 0)
macdshort = crossunder(delta, 0)
rsilong = notna and crossover(vrsi, overSold)
rsishort = notna and crossunder(vrsi, overBought)

lentt = input(14, "Pivot Length")
    //The length defines how many periods a high or low must hold to be a "relevant pivot"

h = highest(lentt)
    //The highest high over the length
h1 = dev(h, lentt) ? na : h
    //h1 is a pivot of h if it holds for the full length
hpivot = fixnan(h1)
    //creates a series which is equal to the last pivot

l = lowest(lentt)
l1 = dev(l, lentt) ? na : l
lpivot = fixnan(l1)
    //repeated for lows


last_hpivot = h1 ? time : nz(last_hpivot[1])
last_lpivot = l1 ? time : nz(last_lpivot[1])

long_time = last_hpivot > last_lpivot ? 0:1

//FIBS

z = input(100, "Z-Index")
p_offset= 2
transp = 60
a=(lowest(z)+highest(z))/2
b=lowest(z)
c=highest(z)
fibonacci = input(0, "Fibonacci") / 100

//Fib Calls
fib0 = (((hpivot - lpivot)* fibonacci) + lpivot)
fib1 = (((hpivot - lpivot)*.21) + lpivot)
fib2 = (((hpivot - lpivot)*.3) + lpivot)
fib3 = (((hpivot - lpivot)*.5) + lpivot)
fib4 = (((hpivot - lpivot)*.62) + lpivot)
fib5 = (((hpivot - lpivot)*.7) + lpivot)
fib6 = (((hpivot - lpivot)* 1.00) + lpivot)
fib7 = (((hpivot - lpivot)* 1.27) + lpivot)
fib8 = (((hpivot - lpivot)* 2) + lpivot)
fib9 = (((hpivot - lpivot)* -.27) + lpivot)
fib10 = (((hpivot - lpivot)* -1) + lpivot)

//Heiken Ashi Candles

data2 = isHA ? heikenashi(syminfo.tickerid) : syminfo.tickerid
res5 = input("5", "Resolution")

//HT Fibs

hfib0 =  security(data2, res5, fib0[1])
hfib1 =  security(data2, res5, fib1[1])
hfib2 =  security(data2, res5, fib2[1])
hfib3 =  security(data2, res5, fib3[1])
hfib4 =  security(data2, res5, fib4[1])
hfib5 =  security(data2, res5, fib5[1])
hfib6 =  security(data2, res5, fib6[1])
hfib7 =  security(data2, res5, fib7[1])
hfib8 =  security(data2, res5, fib8[1])
hfib9 =  security(data2, res5, fib9[1])
hfib10 =  security(data2, res5, fib10[1])

vrsiup = vrsi > vrsi[1] and vrsi[1] > vrsi[2]
vrsidown = vrsi < vrsi[1] and vrsi[1] < vrsi[2]

long =  cross(close, fib0) and delta > 0 and vrsi < overSold and vrsiup 
short = cross(close, fib6) and delta < 0  and vrsi > overBought and vrsidown

// long2 =  cross(close, fib0) and delta > 0 and vrsi < overSold and vrsiup 
// short2 = cross(close, fib6) and delta < 0  and vrsi > overBought and vrsidown
// long =  cross(close, fib0) and delta > 0 and vrsi < overSold and vrsiup 
// short = cross(close, fib6) and delta < 0  and vrsi > overBought and vrsidown
// long =  cross(close, fib0) and delta > 0 and vrsi < overSold and vrsiup 
// short = cross(close, fib6) and delta < 0  and vrsi > overBought and vrsidown
// long =  cross(close, fib0) and delta > 0 and vrsi < overSold and vrsiup 
// short = cross(close, fib6) and delta < 0  and vrsi > overBought and vrsidown
// long =  cross(close, fib0) and delta > 0 and vrsi < overSold and vrsiup 
// short = cross(close, fib6) and delta < 0  and vrsi > overBought and vrsidown
// long =  cross(close, fib0) and delta > 0 and vrsi < overSold and vrsiup 
// short = cross(close, fib6) and delta < 0  and vrsi > overBought and vrsidown
// long =  cross(close, fib0) and delta > 0 and vrsi < overSold and vrsiup 
// short = cross(close, fib6) and delta < 0  and vrsi > overBought and vrsidown
// long =  cross(close, fib0) and delta > 0 and vrsi < overSold and vrsiup 
// short = cross(close, fib6) and delta < 0  and vrsi > overBought and vrsidown

reverseOpens = input(false, "Reverse Orders", bool)
if (reverseOpens)
	tmplong = long
	long := short
	short := tmplong

//Strategy
ts = input(99999, "TS")
tp = input(30, "TP")
sl = input(10, "SL")

last_long = long ? time : nz(last_long[1])
last_short = short ? time : nz(last_short[1])

in_long = last_long > last_short
in_short = last_short > last_long

long_signal = crossover(last_long, last_short)
short_signal = crossover(last_short, last_long)

last_open_long = long ? open : nz(last_open_long[1])
last_open_short = short ? open : nz(last_open_short[1])

last_open_long_signal = long_signal ? open : nz(last_open_long_signal[1])
last_open_short_signal = short_signal ? open : nz(last_open_short_signal[1])

last_high = not in_long ? na : in_long and (na(last_high[1]) or high > nz(last_high[1])) ? high : nz(last_high[1])
last_low = not in_short ? na : in_short and (na(last_low[1]) or low < nz(last_low[1])) ? low : nz(last_low[1])

long_ts = not na(last_high) and high <= (last_high - ts) and high >= last_open_long_signal
short_ts = not na(last_low) and low >= (last_low + ts) and low <= last_open_short_signal

long_tp = high >= (last_open_long + tp) and long[1] == 0
short_tp = low <= (last_open_short - tp) and short[1] == 0

long_sl = low <= (last_open_long - sl) and long[1] == 0
short_sl = high >= (last_open_short + sl) and short[1] == 0

last_hfib_long = long_signal ? fib1 : nz(last_hfib_long[1])
last_hfib_short = short_signal ? fib5 : nz(last_hfib_short[1])

last_fib7 = long ? fib7 : nz(last_fib7[1])
last_fib10 = long ? fib10 : nz(last_fib10[1])
last_fib8 = short ? fib8 : nz(last_fib8[1])
last_fib9 = short ? fib9 : nz(last_fib9[1])

last_long_signal = long_signal ? time : nz(last_long_signal[1])
last_short_signal = short_signal ? time : nz(last_short_signal[1])

last_long_tp = long_tp ? time : nz(last_long_tp[1])
last_short_tp = short_tp ? time : nz(last_short_tp[1])

last_long_ts = long_ts ? time : nz(last_long_ts[1])
last_short_ts = short_ts ? time : nz(last_short_ts[1])

long_ts_signal = crossover(last_long_ts, last_long_signal)
short_ts_signal = crossover(last_short_ts, last_short_signal)

last_long_sl = long_sl ? time : nz(last_long_sl[1])
last_short_sl = short_sl ? time : nz(last_short_sl[1])

long_tp_signal = crossover(last_long_tp, last_long)
short_tp_signal = crossover(last_short_tp, last_short)

long_sl_signal = crossover(last_long_sl, last_long)
short_sl_signal = crossover(last_short_sl, last_short)

last_long_tp_signal = long_tp_signal ? time : nz(last_long_tp_signal[1])
last_short_tp_signal = short_tp_signal ? time : nz(last_short_tp_signal[1])

last_long_sl_signal = long_sl_signal ? time : nz(last_long_sl_signal[1])
last_short_sl_signal = short_sl_signal ? time : nz(last_short_sl_signal[1])

last_long_ts_signal = long_ts_signal ? time : nz(last_long_ts_signal[1])
last_short_ts_signal = short_ts_signal ? time : nz(last_short_ts_signal[1])

true_long_signal = long_signal and last_long_sl_signal > last_long_signal[1] or long_signal and last_long_tp_signal > last_long_signal[1] or long_signal and last_long_ts_signal > last_long_signal[1]
true_short_signal = short_signal and last_short_sl_signal > last_short_signal[1] or short_signal and last_short_tp_signal > last_short_signal[1] or short_signal and last_short_ts_signal > last_short_signal[1]  


// strategy.entry("BLUE", strategy.long, when=long)
// strategy.entry("RED", strategy.short, when=short)

g = delta > 0 and vrsi < overSold and vrsiup
r = delta < 0  and vrsi > overBought and vrsidown

long1 = cross(close, fib1) and g and last_long_signal[1] > last_short_signal// and last_long_signal > long
short1 = cross(close, fib5) and r and last_short_signal[1] > last_long_signal// and last_short_signal > short

last_long1 = long1 ? time : nz(last_long1[1])
last_short1 = short1 ? time : nz(last_short1[1])

last_open_long1 = long1 ? open : nz(last_open_long1[1])
last_open_short1 = short1 ? open : nz(last_open_short1[1])

long1_signal = crossover(last_long1, last_long_signal)
short1_signal = crossover(last_short1, last_short_signal)

last_long1_signal = long1_signal ? time : nz(last_long1_signal[1])
last_short1_signal = short1_signal ? time : nz(last_short1_signal[1])


long2 = cross(close, fib2) and g and last_long1_signal > last_long_signal[1] and long1_signal == 0 and last_long_signal[1] > last_short_signal
short2 = cross(close, fib4) and r and last_short1_signal > last_short_signal[1] and short1_signal == 0 and last_short_signal[1] > last_long_signal

last_long2 = long2 ? time : nz(last_long2[1])
last_short2 = short2 ? time : nz(last_short2[1])

last_open_short2 = short2 ? open : nz(last_open_short2[1])

long2_signal = crossover(last_long2, last_long1_signal) and long1_signal==0
short2_signal = crossover(last_short2, last_short1_signal) and short1_signal==0

last_long2_signal = long2_signal ? time : nz(last_long2_signal[1])
last_short2_signal = short2_signal ? time : nz(last_short2_signal[1])

//Trade 4

long3 = cross(close, fib3) and g and last_long1_signal > last_long_signal[1] and long1_signal == 0 and last_long_signal[1] > last_short_signal
short3 = cross(close, fib3) and r and last_short1_signal > last_short_signal[1] and short1_signal == 0 and last_short_signal[1] > last_long_signal

last_long3 = long3 ? time : nz(last_long3[1])
last_short3 = short3 ? time : nz(last_short3[1])

last_open_short3 = short3 ? open : nz(last_open_short3[1])

long3_signal = crossover(last_long3, last_long2_signal) and long2_signal==0
short3_signal = crossover(last_short3, last_short2_signal) and short2_signal==0

last_long3_signal = long3_signal ? time : nz(last_long3_signal[1])
last_short3_signal = short3_signal ? time : nz(last_short3_signal[1])


//Trade 5
long4 = long and last_long1_signal > last_long_signal[1] and long1_signal == 0 and last_long_signal[1] > last_short_signal
short4 = short and last_short1_signal > last_short_signal[1] and short1_signal == 0 and last_short_signal[1] > last_long_signal

last_long4 = long4 ? time : nz(last_long4[1])
last_short4 = short4 ? time : nz(last_short4[1])

long4_signal = crossover(last_long4, last_long3_signal) and long2_signal==0 and long3_signal==0
short4_signal = crossover(last_short4, last_short3_signal) and short2_signal==0 and short3_signal==0

last_long4_signal = long4_signal ? time : nz(last_long4_signal[1])
last_short4_signal = short4_signal ? time : nz(last_short4_signal[1])

//Trade 6
long5 = long and last_long1_signal > last_long_signal[1] and long1_signal == 0 and last_long_signal[1] > last_short_signal
short5 = short and last_short1_signal > last_short_signal[1] and short1_signal == 0 and last_short_signal[1] > last_long_signal

last_long5 = long5 ? time : nz(last_long5[1])
last_short5 = short5 ? time : nz(last_short5[1])

long5_signal = crossover(last_long5, last_long4_signal) and long3_signal==0 and long4_signal==0
short5_signal = crossover(last_short5, last_short4_signal) and short3_signal==0 and short4_signal==0

last_long5_signal = long5_signal ? time : nz(last_long5_signal[1])
last_short5_signal = short5_signal ? time : nz(last_short5_signal[1])

//Trade 7
long6 = long and last_long1_signal > last_long_signal[1] and long1_signal == 0 and last_long_signal[1] > last_short_signal
short6 = short and last_short1_signal > last_short_signal[1] and short1_signal == 0 and last_short_signal[1] > last_long_signal

last_long6 = long6 ? time : nz(last_long6[1])
last_short6 = short6 ? time : nz(last_short6[1])

long6_signal = crossover(last_long6, last_long5_signal) and long2_signal==0 and long4_signal==0 and long5_signal==0
short6_signal = crossover(last_short6, last_short5_signal) and short2_signal==0 and short4_signal==0 and short5_signal==0

last_long6_signal = long6_signal ? time : nz(last_long6_signal[1])
last_short6_signal = short6_signal ? time : nz(last_short6_signal[1])


//Trade 8
long7 = long and last_long1_signal > last_long_signal[1] and long1_signal == 0 and last_long_signal[1] > last_short_signal
short7 = short and last_short1_signal > last_short_signal[1] and short1_signal == 0 and last_short_signal[1] > last_long_signal

last_long7 = long7 ? time : nz(last_long7[1])
last_short7 = short7 ? time : nz(last_short7[1])

long7_signal = crossover(last_long7, last_long6_signal) and long2_signal==0 and long4_signal==0 and long5_signal==0 and long6_signal==0
short7_signal = crossover(last_short7, last_short6_signal) and short2_signal==0 and short4_signal==0 and short5_signal==0 and short6_signal==0

last_long7_signal = long7_signal ? time : nz(last_long7_signal[1])
last_short7_signal = short7_signal ? time : nz(last_short7_signal[1])


//Trade 9
long8 = long and last_long1_signal > last_long_signal[1] and long1_signal == 0 and last_long_signal[1] > last_short_signal
short8 = short and last_short1_signal > last_short_signal[1] and short1_signal == 0 and last_short_signal[1] > last_long_signal

last_long8 = long8 ? time : nz(last_long8[1])
last_short8 = short8 ? time : nz(last_short8[1])

long8_signal = crossover(last_long8, last_long7_signal) and long2_signal==0 and long4_signal==0 and long5_signal==0 and long6_signal==0 and long7_signal==0
short8_signal = crossover(last_short8, last_short7_signal) and short2_signal==0 and short4_signal==0 and short5_signal==0 and short6_signal==0 and short7_signal==0

last_long8_signal = long8_signal ? time : nz(last_long8_signal[1])
last_short8_signal = short8_signal ? time : nz(last_short8_signal[1])

//Trade 10
long9 = long and last_long1_signal > last_long_signal[1] and long1_signal == 0 and last_long_signal[1] > last_short_signal
short9 = short and last_short1_signal > last_short_signal[1] and short1_signal == 0 and last_short_signal[1] > last_long_signal

last_long9 = long9 ? time : nz(last_long9[1])
last_short9 = short9 ? time : nz(last_short9[1])

long9_signal = crossover(last_long9, last_long8_signal) and long2_signal==0 and long4_signal==0 and long5_signal==0 and long6_signal==0 and long7_signal==0 and long8_signal==0
short9_signal = crossover(last_short9, last_short8_signal) and short2_signal==0 and short4_signal==0 and short5_signal==0 and short6_signal==0 and short7_signal==0 and short8_signal==0

last_long9_signal = long9_signal ? time : nz(last_long9_signal[1])
last_short9_signal = short9_signal ? time : nz(last_short9_signal[1])


strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, qty=1, when=long_signal)
strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short, qty=1, when=short_signal)
strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, qty=2, when=long1_signal)
strategy.entry("Short1", strategy.short, qty=2, when=short1_signal)
strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, qty=4, when=long2_signal)
strategy.entry("Short2", strategy.short, qty=4, when=short2_signal)
strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, qty=8, when=long3_signal)
strategy.entry("Short3", strategy.short, qty=8, when=short3_signal)
strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, qty=5, when=long4_signal)
strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short, qty=5, when=short4_signal)
strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, qty=6, when=long5_signal)
strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short, qty=6, when=short5_signal)
strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, qty=7, when=long6_signal)
strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short, qty=7, when=short6_signal)
strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, qty=8, when=long7_signal)
strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short, qty=8, when=short7_signal)
strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, qty=9, when=long8_signal)
strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short, qty=9, when=short8_signal)
strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, qty=10, when=long9_signal)
strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short, qty=10, when=short9_signal)

short1_tp = low <= (last_open_short1 - tp) and short1[1] == 0
short2_tp = low <= (last_open_short2 - tp) and short2[1] == 0
short3_tp = low <= (last_open_short3 - tp) and short3[1] == 0
short1_sl = high >= (last_open_short1 + sl) and short1[1] == 0
short2_sl = high >= (last_open_short2 + sl) and short2[1] == 0
short3_sl = high >= (last_open_short3 + sl) and short3[1] == 0

close_long = cross(close, fib6)
close_short = cross(close, fib0)

// strategy.close("Long", when=close_long)
// strategy.close("Long", when=long_tp)
// strategy.close("Long", when=long_sl)

// strategy.close("Short", when=long_signal)
// strategy.close("Short1", when=long_signal)
// strategy.close("Short2", when=long_signal)
// strategy.close("Short3", when=long_signal)
strategy.close("Short", when=short_tp)
strategy.close("Short1", when=short1_tp)
strategy.close("Short2", when=short2_tp)
strategy.close("Short3", when=short3_tp)
strategy.close("Short", when=short_sl)
strategy.close("Short1", when=short1_sl)
strategy.close("Short2", when=short2_sl)
strategy.close("Short3", when=short3_sl)

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