La stratégie Multi-Bar Direction identifie les signaux d'inversion de tendance en calculant la probabilité que plusieurs barres se déplacent dans le même sens.
La stratégie définit d'abord l'heure de début et de fin pour l'extraction des données historiques. Les heures de négociation sont configurées pour identifier les bougies qualifiées. Elle calcule la probabilité de hausses ou de baisses consécutives dans un délai de 2 à 7 bougies. Les signaux de négociation sont générés lorsque le rapport hausse ou baisse dépasse un seuil.
Par exemple, si la probabilité d'une tendance à la baisse dans 3 bougies est inférieure à 50%, les 3 bougies actuelles répondent à la condition et un signal d'achat est généré.
La logique spécifique est la suivante:
Définir une plage de temps de backtest, y compris la date de début, la date de fin, les heures de négociation.
Comptez le nombre de montées ou de descentes dans la même direction dans 2 à 7 chandeliers.
Calculez la probabilité de poursuite de la hausse ou de la baisse entre les chandeliers adjacents.
Si la probabilité est inférieure à 50%, les chandeliers actuels correspondent au schéma d'inversion.
Générer des signaux d'achat ou de vente pendant les heures de négociation.
Test de retour pour valider la stratégie.
Évitez les faux signaux en considérant plusieurs probabilités de chandeliers.
Nombre de barres personnalisable pour identifier les signaux d'inversion sur différentes périodes.
Des horaires de négociation clairs évitent les signaux prématurés.
Affichage intuitif des statistiques pour l'évaluation des performances.
De nombreux paramètres optimisés adaptés à différents marchés.
Le comptage des barres ne peut pas déterminer pleinement les points d'inversion de tendance.
Une longue durée des statistiques peut faire perdre des opportunités commerciales à court terme.
Le seuil statique est influencé par la volatilité du marché.
La sélection de la période d'essai arrière peut entraîner un surajustement.
Des solutions possibles:
Optimiser le nombre de barres pour différentes périodes.
Inclure d'autres indicateurs.
Adopter des seuils dynamiques basés sur la volatilité du marché.
Élargir la période de backtest et exécuter plusieurs backtests.
La stratégie peut être optimisée dans les aspects suivants:
Optimisez le nombre de barres de 2 à 10 et sélectionnez le paramètre optimal.
seuil d'inversion des essais de 40% à 60% compte tenu des changements survenus sur le marché.
Ajouter un stop loss après la génération du signal pour limiter le risque.
Incorporer d'autres indicateurs comme le RSI pour valider les signaux.
Ajoutez plus de produits comme les contrats à terme et le forex pour les tests de paramètres.
Ajustement des paramètres pour trouver les combinaisons optimales.
Appliquer des modèles d'apprentissage automatique pour trouver automatiquement les paramètres optimaux.
La stratégie Multi-Bar Direction identifie les signaux potentiels d'inversion en analysant statistiquement les probabilités de chandelier. Mais la performance dépend de l'ajustement des paramètres basé sur des optimisations suffisantes. En outre, les signaux d'inversion présentent des risques d'erreur de jugement et nécessitent une validation. Dans l'ensemble, il s'agit d'une stratégie statistique simple et efficace qui vaut la peine pour de nouvelles recherches et optimisations.
/*backtest start: 2023-10-16 00:00:00 end: 2023-10-17 00:00:00 period: 5m basePeriod: 1m exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}] */ // BO - Bar's direction Signal - Backtesting //anch.v43 // © inno14 //@version=4 strategy("BO - Bar's direction Signal - Backtesting", pyramiding=15) // === INPUT PERIOD OF TIME === Date = input(true, title = "=== Periods Counting ===") FromDay = input(defval = 1, title = "From Day", minval = 1, maxval = 31) FromMonth = input(defval = 1, title = "From Month", minval = 1, maxval = 12) FromYear = input(defval = 2020, title = "From Year", minval = 2017) ToDay = input(defval = 1, title = "To Day", minval = 1, maxval = 31) ToMonth = input(defval = 1, title = "To Month", minval = 1, maxval = 12) ToYear = input(defval = 9999, title = "To Year", minval = 2017) // === DATE RANGE === start = timestamp(FromYear, FromMonth, FromDay, 00, 00) // backtest start window finish = timestamp(ToYear, ToMonth, ToDay, 23, 59) // backtest finish window window() => time >= start and time <= finish ? true : false // create function "within window of time" // === Trading Time === CTimeDvM = input(true, title = "=== Trading Time ===") Time_zone = input(7,title="Time Zone") FromHourDvM = input(defval = 05, title = "From Hour", minval = 00, maxval = 23) FromMinuteDvM = input(defval = 00, title = "From Minute", minval = 00, maxval = 59) ToHourDvM = input(defval = 04, title = "To Hour", minval = 00, maxval = 23) ToMinuteDvM = input(defval = 59, title = "To Minute", minval = 00, maxval = 59) GMT_FHDvM=FromHourDvM<Time_zone?FromHourDvM-Time_zone+24:FromHourDvM-Time_zone GMT_THDvM=ToHourDvM<Time_zone?ToHourDvM-Time_zone+24:ToHourDvM-Time_zone fhDvM= (GMT_FHDvM<10?"0"+tostring(GMT_FHDvM):tostring(GMT_FHDvM)) fmDvM= (FromMinuteDvM<10?"0"+tostring(FromMinuteDvM):tostring(FromMinuteDvM)) thDvM= (GMT_THDvM<10?"0"+tostring(GMT_THDvM):tostring(GMT_THDvM)) tmDvM= (ToMinuteDvM<10?"0"+tostring(ToMinuteDvM):tostring(ToMinuteDvM)) WorkingHourDvM = fhDvM+fmDvM+"-"+thDvM+tmDvM t0_DvM = time(timeframe.period, WorkingHourDvM) htrtime = input(true,title="Highlight Tradingtime") bgcolor(htrtime? t0_DvM? color.gray : na:na, title="Trading Time", transp=90) // === Date Backtesting === Date1 = input(true, title = "=== Date Backtesting ===") FromDay1 = input(defval = 1, title = "From Day", minval = 1, maxval = 31) FromMonth1 = input(defval = 1, title = "From Month", minval = 1, maxval = 12) FromYear1 = input(defval = 2020, title = "From Year", minval = 2017) ToDay1 = input(defval = 1, title = "To Day", minval = 1, maxval = 31) ToMonth1 = input(defval = 1, title = "To Month", minval = 1, maxval = 12) ToYear1 = input(defval = 9999, title = "To Year", minval = 2017) // === DATE RANGE === start1 = timestamp(FromYear1, FromMonth1, FromDay1, 00, 00) // backtest start window finish1 = timestamp(ToYear1, ToMonth1, ToDay1, 23, 59) // backtest finish window window1() => time >= start1 and time <= finish1 ? true : false // create function "within window of time" // === Setup === Setup = input(true, title = "=== Setup Options ===") set1 = input(true, title = "Reversal after 2 bars same direction") set2 = input(true, title = "Reversal after 3 bars same direction") set3 = input(true, title = "Reversal after 4 bars same direction") set4 = input(true, title = "Reversal after 5 bars same direction") set5 = input(true, title = "Reversal after 6 bars same direction") // Calculate hours, minutes, and seconds till close timeLeft = barstate.isrealtime ? (time_close - timenow) / 1000 : na minutesLeft = floor((timeLeft % 3600) / 60) secondsLeft = timeLeft % 60 // truncate() truncates a given number // to a certain number of decimals truncate(number, decimals) => factor = pow(10, decimals) int(number * factor) / factor //count 2 redv2=window()?1:0 bluev2=window()?1:0 mchange2 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and t0_DvM?-1:0 pchange2 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and t0_DvM?1:0 blue2 = cum(pchange2 > 0 ? bluev2 : 0 * bluev2) red2 = cum(mchange2 < 0 ? redv2 : 0 * redv2) //count 3 redv3=window()?1:0 bluev3=window()?1:0 mchange3 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and close[2]<open[2] and t0_DvM?-1:0 pchange3 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and close[2]>open[2] and t0_DvM?1:0 blue3 = cum(pchange3 > 0 ? bluev3 : 0 * bluev3) red3 = cum(mchange3 < 0 ? redv3 : 0 * redv3) //count 4 redv4=window()?1:0 bluev4=window()?1:0 mchange4 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and close[2]<open[2] and close[3]<open[3] and t0_DvM?-1:0 pchange4 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and close[2]>open[2] and close[3]>open[3] and t0_DvM?1:0 blue4 = cum(pchange4 > 0 ? bluev4 : 0 * bluev4) red4 = cum(mchange4 < 0 ? redv4 : 0 * redv4) //count 5 redv5=window()?1:0 bluev5=window()?1:0 mchange5 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and close[2]<open[2] and close[3]<open[3] and close[4]<open[4] and t0_DvM?-1:0 pchange5 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and close[2]>open[2] and close[3]>open[3] and close[4]>open[4] and t0_DvM?1:0 blue5 = cum(pchange5 > 0 ? bluev5 : 0 * bluev5) red5 = cum(mchange5 < 0 ? redv5 : 0 * redv5) //count 6 redv6=window()?1:0 bluev6=window()?1:0 mchange6 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and close[2]<open[2] and close[3]<open[3] and close[4]<open[4] and close[5]<open[5] and t0_DvM?-1:0 pchange6 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and close[2]>open[2] and close[3]>open[3] and close[4]>open[4] and close[5]>open[5] and t0_DvM?1:0 blue6 = cum(pchange6 > 0 ? bluev6 : 0 * bluev6) red6 = cum(mchange6 < 0 ? redv6 : 0 * redv6) //count 7 redv7=window()?1:0 bluev7=window()?1:0 mchange7 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and close[2]<open[2] and close[3]<open[3] and close[4]<open[4] and close[5]<open[5] and close[6]<open[6] and t0_DvM?-1:0 pchange7 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and close[2]>open[2] and close[3]>open[3] and close[4]>open[4] and close[5]>open[5] and close[6]>open[6] and t0_DvM?1:0 blue7 = cum(pchange7 > 0 ? bluev7 : 0 * bluev7) red7 = cum(mchange7 < 0 ? redv7 : 0 * redv7) //Percent 3rd bar has same direction pred3=(red3/red2)*100 pblue3=(blue3/blue2)*100 //2->3 p23_blue_xloc=0 p23_red_xloc=2 p23_lable_xloc=round((p23_blue_xloc+p23_red_xloc)/2) p23_label_yloc=1.0*100 blue2_100=100 red2_100=100 plot(blue2_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=p23_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(red2_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p23_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(pblue3, style=plot.style_columns, offset=p23_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=40, show_last=1) plot(pred3, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p23_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=40, show_last=1) // label_pred_23=label.new(bar_index[p23_red_xloc],pred3,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pred3,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pred_23[1]) //label_2dn=label.new(bar_index[p23_red_xloc],red2,style=label.style_none,text="2 bars downward: "+tostring(red2)) //label.delete(label_2dn[1]) // label_pblue_23=label.new(bar_index[p23_blue_xloc],pblue3,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pblue3,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pblue_23[1]) //label_2up=label.new(bar_index[p23_blue_xloc],blue2,style=label.style_none,text="2 bars upward: "+tostring(blue2)) //label.delete(label_2up[1]) // label_23=label.new(bar_index[p23_lable_xloc],p23_label_yloc,style=label.style_labeldown,text="3 bars same direction", color=color.orange) // label.delete(label_23[1]) //Percent 4th bar has same direction pred4=(red4/red3)*100 pblue4=(blue4/blue3)*100 //3->4 p34_blue_xloc=4 p34_red_xloc=6 p34_lable_xloc=round((p34_blue_xloc+p34_red_xloc)/2) p34_label_yloc=1.0*100 blue3_100=100 red3_100=100 plot(blue3_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p34_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(red3_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p34_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(pblue4, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p34_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=40, show_last=1) plot(pred4, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p34_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=40, show_last=1) // label_pred_34=label.new(bar_index[p34_red_xloc],pred4,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pred4,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pred_34[1]) // //label_3dn=label.new(bar_index[p34_red_xloc],red3,style=label.style_none,text="3 bars downward: "+tostring(red3)) // //label.delete(label_3dn[1]) // label_pblue_34=label.new(bar_index[p34_blue_xloc],pblue4,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pblue4,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pblue_34[1]) // //label_3up=label.new(bar_index[p34_blue_xloc],blue3,style=label.style_none,text="3 bars upward: "+tostring(blue3)) // //label.delete(label_3up[1]) // label_34=label.new(bar_index[p34_lable_xloc],p34_label_yloc,style=label.style_labeldown,text="4 bars same direction", color=color.orange) // label.delete(label_34[1]) //Percent 5th bar has same direction pred5=(red5/red4)*100 pblue5=(blue5/blue4)*100 //4->5 p45_blue_xloc=8 p45_red_xloc=10 p45_lable_xloc=round((p45_blue_xloc+p45_red_xloc)/2) p45_label_yloc=1.0*100 blue4_100=100 red4_100=100 plot(blue4_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p45_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(red4_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p45_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(pblue5, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p45_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=40, show_last=1) plot(pred5, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p45_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=40, show_last=1) // label_pred_45=label.new(bar_index[p45_red_xloc],pred5,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pred5,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pred_45[1]) // //label_4dn=label.new(bar_index[p45_red_xloc],red4,style=label.style_none,text="4 bars downward: "+tostring(red4)) // //label.delete(label_4dn[1]) // label_pblue_45=label.new(bar_index[p45_blue_xloc],pblue5,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pblue5,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pblue_45[1]) // //label_4up=label.new(bar_index[p45_blue_xloc],blue4,style=label.style_none,text="4 bars upward: "+tostring(blue4)) // //label.delete(label_4up[1]) // label_45=label.new(bar_index[p45_lable_xloc],p45_label_yloc,style=label.style_labeldown,text="5 bars same direction", color=color.orange) // label.delete(label_45[1]) //Percent 6th bar has same direction pred6=(red6/red5)*100 pblue6=(blue6/blue5)*100 //5->6 p56_blue_xloc=12 p56_red_xloc=14 p56_lable_xloc=round((p56_blue_xloc+p56_red_xloc)/2) p56_label_yloc=1.0*100 blue5_100=100 red5_100=100 plot(blue5_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p56_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(red5_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p56_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(pblue6, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p56_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=40, show_last=1) plot(pred6, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p56_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=40, show_last=1) // label_pred_56=label.new(bar_index[p56_red_xloc],pred6,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pred6,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pred_56[1]) // //label_5dn=label.new(bar_index[p56_red_xloc],red5,style=label.style_none,text="5 bars downward: "+tostring(red5)) // //label.delete(label_5dn[1]) // label_pblue_56=label.new(bar_index[p56_blue_xloc],pblue6,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pblue6,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pblue_56[1]) // //label_5up=label.new(bar_index[p56_blue_xloc],blue5,style=label.style_none,text="5 bars upward: "+tostring(blue5)) // //label.delete(label_5up[1]) // label_56=label.new(bar_index[p56_lable_xloc],p56_label_yloc,style=label.style_labeldown,text="6 bars same direction", color=color.orange) // label.delete(label_56[1]) //Percent 7th bar has same direction pred7=(red7/red6)*100 pblue7=(blue7/blue6)*100 //6->7 p67_blue_xloc=16 p67_red_xloc=18 p67_lable_xloc=round((p67_blue_xloc+p67_red_xloc)/2) p67_label_yloc=1.0*100 blue6_100=100 red6_100=100 plot(blue6_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p67_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(red6_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p67_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(pblue7, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p67_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=40, show_last=1) plot(pred7, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p67_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=40, show_last=1) // label_pred_67=label.new(bar_index[p67_red_xloc],pred7,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pred7,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pred_67[1]) // //label_6dn=label.new(bar_index[p67_red_xloc],red6,style=label.style_none,text="6 bars downward: "+tostring(red6)) // //label.delete(label_6dn[1]) // label_pblue_67=label.new(bar_index[p67_blue_xloc],pblue7,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pblue7,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pblue_67[1]) // //label_6up=label.new(bar_index[p67_blue_xloc],blue6,style=label.style_none,text="6 bars upward: "+tostring(blue6)) // //label.delete(label_6up[1]) // label_67=label.new(bar_index[p67_lable_xloc],p67_label_yloc,style=label.style_labeldown,text="7 bars same direction", color=color.orange) // label.delete(label_67[1]) //Plot Time Label time_label_yloc=1.4*100 time_lable_xloc=round((p67_red_xloc+p23_blue_xloc)/2) time_label_text="Bar's Direction Info From: "+tostring(FromDay)+"/"+tostring(FromMonth)+"/"+tostring(FromYear)+" To: "+tostring(ToDay)+"/"+tostring(ToMonth)+"/"+tostring(ToYear) // label_time=label.new(bar_index[time_lable_xloc],time_label_yloc,style=label.style_none,text=time_label_text, color=color.aqua) // label.delete(label_time[1]) //Signal //Put signal x1= pblue3<50?blue2[0]>blue2[1] and blue3[0]==blue3[1]:false x2= pblue4<50?blue3[0]>blue3[1] and blue4[0]==blue4[1]:false x3= pblue5<50?blue4[0]>blue4[1] and blue5[0]==blue5[1]:false x4= pblue6<50?blue5[0]>blue5[1] and blue6[0]==blue6[1]:false x5= pblue7<50?blue6[0]>blue6[1] and blue7[0]==blue7[1]:false //Call signal y1= pred3<50?red2[0]>red2[1] and red3[0]==red3[1]:false y2= pred4<50?red3[0]>red3[1] and red4[0]==red4[1]:false y3= pred5<50?red4[0]>red4[1] and red5[0]==red5[1]:false y4= pred6<50?red5[0]>red5[1] and red6[0]==red6[1]:false y5= pred7<50?red6[0]>red6[1] and red7[0]==red7[1]:false //Function xTech= set1?x1:false or set2?x2:false or set3?x3:false or set4?x4:false or set5?x5:false yTech= set1?y1:false or set2?y2:false or set3?y3:false or set4?y4:false or set5?y5:false //Plot Analyzing Signals hline1=hline(-100) hline2=hline(-1.6*100) hline0=hline(0) sigtext=xTech?"Put signal":yTech?"Call signal":"Analyzing Signals - Bar's Time left:"+tostring(minutesLeft)+":"+tostring(secondsLeft) sig_col=xTech?color.new(color.red,0):yTech?color.new(color.blue,0):color.new(color.navy,0) // label_sig_text = label.new(bar_index[0], -1.5*100, text=sigtext, style=label.style_none, textcolor=sig_col, size=size.large) // label.delete(label_sig_text[1]) //plot Signal putcol = xTech? color.red : na callcol = yTech? color.blue : na PutSignal= xTech and window1() and t0_DvM?-100:na CallSignal= yTech and window1() and t0_DvM?-100:na plot(PutSignal, title='Put Signal', style=plot.style_columns, color=color.red, offset=1, transp=0) plot(CallSignal, title='Call Signal', style=plot.style_columns, color=color.blue, offset=1, transp=0) plotshape(PutSignal, title='Put', text="Put", style=shape.labeldown, location=location.bottom, color=color.orange, textcolor=color.black, offset=1, transp=0) plotshape(CallSignal, title='Call', text="Call", style=shape.labelup, location=location.bottom, color=color.orange, textcolor=color.black, offset=1, transp=0) //Backtesting strategy.entry("Call", strategy.long, when=yTech and window1() and t0_DvM) strategy.entry("Put", strategy.short, when=xTech and window1() and t0_DvM) strategy.close_all(when=barstate.isnew) //EOF