Strategi Multi-Bar Direction mengidentifikasi sinyal pembalikan tren dengan menghitung probabilitas beberapa bar bergerak ke arah yang sama.
Strategi ini pertama-tama menetapkan waktu awal dan akhir untuk ekstraksi data historis. Jam perdagangan dikonfigurasi untuk mengidentifikasi lilin yang memenuhi syarat. Ini menghitung probabilitas kenaikan atau penurunan berturut-turut dalam 2 sampai 7 lilin. Sinyal perdagangan dihasilkan ketika rasio naik atau turun melebihi ambang batas.
Misalnya, jika probabilitas downtrend pada 3 candlestick kurang dari 50%, 3 candlestick saat ini memenuhi kondisi dan sinyal beli dihasilkan.
Logika spesifiknya adalah sebagai berikut:
Tetapkan rentang waktu backtest, termasuk tanggal awal, tanggal akhir, jam perdagangan.
Hitung jumlah arah yang sama naik atau turun dalam 2 sampai 7 lilin.
Hitung probabilitas kelanjutan naik atau turun antara lilin yang berdekatan.
Jika probabilitasnya kurang dari 50%, candlesticks saat ini sesuai dengan pola pembalikan.
Menghasilkan sinyal beli atau jual dalam jam perdagangan.
Backtest untuk memvalidasi strategi.
Hindari sinyal palsu dengan mempertimbangkan kemungkinan beberapa candlestick.
Jumlah batang yang dapat disesuaikan untuk mengidentifikasi sinyal pembalikan di berbagai kerangka waktu.
Jam perdagangan yang jelas menghindari sinyal yang tidak tepat waktu.
Tampilan statistik intuitif untuk evaluasi kinerja.
Banyak parameter yang dapat dioptimalkan yang cocok untuk pasar yang berbeda.
Penghitungan bar tidak dapat sepenuhnya menentukan titik pembalikan tren.
Durasi statistik yang panjang dapat kehilangan peluang perdagangan jangka pendek.
Batas statis dipengaruhi oleh volatilitas pasar.
Pemilihan periode backtest dapat menyebabkan overfitting.
Solusi yang mungkin:
Mengoptimalkan jumlah bar untuk jangka waktu yang berbeda.
Masukkan indikator lain.
Mengadopsi ambang batas dinamis berdasarkan volatilitas pasar.
Memperluas periode backtest dan menjalankan beberapa backtest.
Strategi dapat dioptimalkan dalam aspek berikut:
Optimalkan jumlah bar dari 2 sampai 10 dan pilih parameter yang optimal.
Batas pembalikan uji dari 40% menjadi 60% mengingat perubahan pasar.
Tambahkan stop loss setelah generasi sinyal untuk membatasi risiko.
Masukkan indikator lain seperti RSI untuk memvalidasi sinyal.
Tambahkan lebih banyak produk seperti futures dan forex untuk pengujian parameter.
Pengaturan parameter tambahan untuk menemukan kombinasi optimal.
Menerapkan model pembelajaran mesin untuk menemukan parameter optimal secara otomatis.
Strategi Multi-Bar Direction mengidentifikasi sinyal pembalikan potensial dengan menganalisis probabilitas candlestick secara statistik. Tetapi kinerjanya tergantung pada penyesuaian parameter berdasarkan optimasi yang cukup. Selain itu, sinyal pembalikan memiliki risiko penilaian yang salah dan perlu validasi. Secara keseluruhan, ini adalah strategi statistik yang sederhana dan efektif yang bermanfaat untuk penelitian dan optimasi lebih lanjut.
/*backtest start: 2023-10-16 00:00:00 end: 2023-10-17 00:00:00 period: 5m basePeriod: 1m exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}] */ // BO - Bar's direction Signal - Backtesting //anch.v43 // © inno14 //@version=4 strategy("BO - Bar's direction Signal - Backtesting", pyramiding=15) // === INPUT PERIOD OF TIME === Date = input(true, title = "=== Periods Counting ===") FromDay = input(defval = 1, title = "From Day", minval = 1, maxval = 31) FromMonth = input(defval = 1, title = "From Month", minval = 1, maxval = 12) FromYear = input(defval = 2020, title = "From Year", minval = 2017) ToDay = input(defval = 1, title = "To Day", minval = 1, maxval = 31) ToMonth = input(defval = 1, title = "To Month", minval = 1, maxval = 12) ToYear = input(defval = 9999, title = "To Year", minval = 2017) // === DATE RANGE === start = timestamp(FromYear, FromMonth, FromDay, 00, 00) // backtest start window finish = timestamp(ToYear, ToMonth, ToDay, 23, 59) // backtest finish window window() => time >= start and time <= finish ? true : false // create function "within window of time" // === Trading Time === CTimeDvM = input(true, title = "=== Trading Time ===") Time_zone = input(7,title="Time Zone") FromHourDvM = input(defval = 05, title = "From Hour", minval = 00, maxval = 23) FromMinuteDvM = input(defval = 00, title = "From Minute", minval = 00, maxval = 59) ToHourDvM = input(defval = 04, title = "To Hour", minval = 00, maxval = 23) ToMinuteDvM = input(defval = 59, title = "To Minute", minval = 00, maxval = 59) GMT_FHDvM=FromHourDvM<Time_zone?FromHourDvM-Time_zone+24:FromHourDvM-Time_zone GMT_THDvM=ToHourDvM<Time_zone?ToHourDvM-Time_zone+24:ToHourDvM-Time_zone fhDvM= (GMT_FHDvM<10?"0"+tostring(GMT_FHDvM):tostring(GMT_FHDvM)) fmDvM= (FromMinuteDvM<10?"0"+tostring(FromMinuteDvM):tostring(FromMinuteDvM)) thDvM= (GMT_THDvM<10?"0"+tostring(GMT_THDvM):tostring(GMT_THDvM)) tmDvM= (ToMinuteDvM<10?"0"+tostring(ToMinuteDvM):tostring(ToMinuteDvM)) WorkingHourDvM = fhDvM+fmDvM+"-"+thDvM+tmDvM t0_DvM = time(timeframe.period, WorkingHourDvM) htrtime = input(true,title="Highlight Tradingtime") bgcolor(htrtime? t0_DvM? color.gray : na:na, title="Trading Time", transp=90) // === Date Backtesting === Date1 = input(true, title = "=== Date Backtesting ===") FromDay1 = input(defval = 1, title = "From Day", minval = 1, maxval = 31) FromMonth1 = input(defval = 1, title = "From Month", minval = 1, maxval = 12) FromYear1 = input(defval = 2020, title = "From Year", minval = 2017) ToDay1 = input(defval = 1, title = "To Day", minval = 1, maxval = 31) ToMonth1 = input(defval = 1, title = "To Month", minval = 1, maxval = 12) ToYear1 = input(defval = 9999, title = "To Year", minval = 2017) // === DATE RANGE === start1 = timestamp(FromYear1, FromMonth1, FromDay1, 00, 00) // backtest start window finish1 = timestamp(ToYear1, ToMonth1, ToDay1, 23, 59) // backtest finish window window1() => time >= start1 and time <= finish1 ? true : false // create function "within window of time" // === Setup === Setup = input(true, title = "=== Setup Options ===") set1 = input(true, title = "Reversal after 2 bars same direction") set2 = input(true, title = "Reversal after 3 bars same direction") set3 = input(true, title = "Reversal after 4 bars same direction") set4 = input(true, title = "Reversal after 5 bars same direction") set5 = input(true, title = "Reversal after 6 bars same direction") // Calculate hours, minutes, and seconds till close timeLeft = barstate.isrealtime ? (time_close - timenow) / 1000 : na minutesLeft = floor((timeLeft % 3600) / 60) secondsLeft = timeLeft % 60 // truncate() truncates a given number // to a certain number of decimals truncate(number, decimals) => factor = pow(10, decimals) int(number * factor) / factor //count 2 redv2=window()?1:0 bluev2=window()?1:0 mchange2 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and t0_DvM?-1:0 pchange2 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and t0_DvM?1:0 blue2 = cum(pchange2 > 0 ? bluev2 : 0 * bluev2) red2 = cum(mchange2 < 0 ? redv2 : 0 * redv2) //count 3 redv3=window()?1:0 bluev3=window()?1:0 mchange3 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and close[2]<open[2] and t0_DvM?-1:0 pchange3 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and close[2]>open[2] and t0_DvM?1:0 blue3 = cum(pchange3 > 0 ? bluev3 : 0 * bluev3) red3 = cum(mchange3 < 0 ? redv3 : 0 * redv3) //count 4 redv4=window()?1:0 bluev4=window()?1:0 mchange4 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and close[2]<open[2] and close[3]<open[3] and t0_DvM?-1:0 pchange4 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and close[2]>open[2] and close[3]>open[3] and t0_DvM?1:0 blue4 = cum(pchange4 > 0 ? bluev4 : 0 * bluev4) red4 = cum(mchange4 < 0 ? redv4 : 0 * redv4) //count 5 redv5=window()?1:0 bluev5=window()?1:0 mchange5 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and close[2]<open[2] and close[3]<open[3] and close[4]<open[4] and t0_DvM?-1:0 pchange5 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and close[2]>open[2] and close[3]>open[3] and close[4]>open[4] and t0_DvM?1:0 blue5 = cum(pchange5 > 0 ? bluev5 : 0 * bluev5) red5 = cum(mchange5 < 0 ? redv5 : 0 * redv5) //count 6 redv6=window()?1:0 bluev6=window()?1:0 mchange6 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and close[2]<open[2] and close[3]<open[3] and close[4]<open[4] and close[5]<open[5] and t0_DvM?-1:0 pchange6 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and close[2]>open[2] and close[3]>open[3] and close[4]>open[4] and close[5]>open[5] and t0_DvM?1:0 blue6 = cum(pchange6 > 0 ? bluev6 : 0 * bluev6) red6 = cum(mchange6 < 0 ? redv6 : 0 * redv6) //count 7 redv7=window()?1:0 bluev7=window()?1:0 mchange7 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and close[2]<open[2] and close[3]<open[3] and close[4]<open[4] and close[5]<open[5] and close[6]<open[6] and t0_DvM?-1:0 pchange7 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and close[2]>open[2] and close[3]>open[3] and close[4]>open[4] and close[5]>open[5] and close[6]>open[6] and t0_DvM?1:0 blue7 = cum(pchange7 > 0 ? bluev7 : 0 * bluev7) red7 = cum(mchange7 < 0 ? redv7 : 0 * redv7) //Percent 3rd bar has same direction pred3=(red3/red2)*100 pblue3=(blue3/blue2)*100 //2->3 p23_blue_xloc=0 p23_red_xloc=2 p23_lable_xloc=round((p23_blue_xloc+p23_red_xloc)/2) p23_label_yloc=1.0*100 blue2_100=100 red2_100=100 plot(blue2_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=p23_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(red2_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p23_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(pblue3, style=plot.style_columns, offset=p23_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=40, show_last=1) plot(pred3, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p23_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=40, show_last=1) // label_pred_23=label.new(bar_index[p23_red_xloc],pred3,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pred3,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pred_23[1]) //label_2dn=label.new(bar_index[p23_red_xloc],red2,style=label.style_none,text="2 bars downward: "+tostring(red2)) //label.delete(label_2dn[1]) // label_pblue_23=label.new(bar_index[p23_blue_xloc],pblue3,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pblue3,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pblue_23[1]) //label_2up=label.new(bar_index[p23_blue_xloc],blue2,style=label.style_none,text="2 bars upward: "+tostring(blue2)) //label.delete(label_2up[1]) // label_23=label.new(bar_index[p23_lable_xloc],p23_label_yloc,style=label.style_labeldown,text="3 bars same direction", color=color.orange) // label.delete(label_23[1]) //Percent 4th bar has same direction pred4=(red4/red3)*100 pblue4=(blue4/blue3)*100 //3->4 p34_blue_xloc=4 p34_red_xloc=6 p34_lable_xloc=round((p34_blue_xloc+p34_red_xloc)/2) p34_label_yloc=1.0*100 blue3_100=100 red3_100=100 plot(blue3_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p34_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(red3_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p34_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(pblue4, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p34_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=40, show_last=1) plot(pred4, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p34_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=40, show_last=1) // label_pred_34=label.new(bar_index[p34_red_xloc],pred4,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pred4,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pred_34[1]) // //label_3dn=label.new(bar_index[p34_red_xloc],red3,style=label.style_none,text="3 bars downward: "+tostring(red3)) // //label.delete(label_3dn[1]) // label_pblue_34=label.new(bar_index[p34_blue_xloc],pblue4,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pblue4,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pblue_34[1]) // //label_3up=label.new(bar_index[p34_blue_xloc],blue3,style=label.style_none,text="3 bars upward: "+tostring(blue3)) // //label.delete(label_3up[1]) // label_34=label.new(bar_index[p34_lable_xloc],p34_label_yloc,style=label.style_labeldown,text="4 bars same direction", color=color.orange) // label.delete(label_34[1]) //Percent 5th bar has same direction pred5=(red5/red4)*100 pblue5=(blue5/blue4)*100 //4->5 p45_blue_xloc=8 p45_red_xloc=10 p45_lable_xloc=round((p45_blue_xloc+p45_red_xloc)/2) p45_label_yloc=1.0*100 blue4_100=100 red4_100=100 plot(blue4_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p45_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(red4_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p45_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(pblue5, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p45_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=40, show_last=1) plot(pred5, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p45_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=40, show_last=1) // label_pred_45=label.new(bar_index[p45_red_xloc],pred5,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pred5,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pred_45[1]) // //label_4dn=label.new(bar_index[p45_red_xloc],red4,style=label.style_none,text="4 bars downward: "+tostring(red4)) // //label.delete(label_4dn[1]) // label_pblue_45=label.new(bar_index[p45_blue_xloc],pblue5,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pblue5,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pblue_45[1]) // //label_4up=label.new(bar_index[p45_blue_xloc],blue4,style=label.style_none,text="4 bars upward: "+tostring(blue4)) // //label.delete(label_4up[1]) // label_45=label.new(bar_index[p45_lable_xloc],p45_label_yloc,style=label.style_labeldown,text="5 bars same direction", color=color.orange) // label.delete(label_45[1]) //Percent 6th bar has same direction pred6=(red6/red5)*100 pblue6=(blue6/blue5)*100 //5->6 p56_blue_xloc=12 p56_red_xloc=14 p56_lable_xloc=round((p56_blue_xloc+p56_red_xloc)/2) p56_label_yloc=1.0*100 blue5_100=100 red5_100=100 plot(blue5_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p56_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(red5_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p56_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(pblue6, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p56_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=40, show_last=1) plot(pred6, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p56_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=40, show_last=1) // label_pred_56=label.new(bar_index[p56_red_xloc],pred6,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pred6,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pred_56[1]) // //label_5dn=label.new(bar_index[p56_red_xloc],red5,style=label.style_none,text="5 bars downward: "+tostring(red5)) // //label.delete(label_5dn[1]) // label_pblue_56=label.new(bar_index[p56_blue_xloc],pblue6,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pblue6,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pblue_56[1]) // //label_5up=label.new(bar_index[p56_blue_xloc],blue5,style=label.style_none,text="5 bars upward: "+tostring(blue5)) // //label.delete(label_5up[1]) // label_56=label.new(bar_index[p56_lable_xloc],p56_label_yloc,style=label.style_labeldown,text="6 bars same direction", color=color.orange) // label.delete(label_56[1]) //Percent 7th bar has same direction pred7=(red7/red6)*100 pblue7=(blue7/blue6)*100 //6->7 p67_blue_xloc=16 p67_red_xloc=18 p67_lable_xloc=round((p67_blue_xloc+p67_red_xloc)/2) p67_label_yloc=1.0*100 blue6_100=100 red6_100=100 plot(blue6_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p67_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(red6_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p67_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(pblue7, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p67_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=40, show_last=1) plot(pred7, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p67_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=40, show_last=1) // label_pred_67=label.new(bar_index[p67_red_xloc],pred7,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pred7,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pred_67[1]) // //label_6dn=label.new(bar_index[p67_red_xloc],red6,style=label.style_none,text="6 bars downward: "+tostring(red6)) // //label.delete(label_6dn[1]) // label_pblue_67=label.new(bar_index[p67_blue_xloc],pblue7,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pblue7,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pblue_67[1]) // //label_6up=label.new(bar_index[p67_blue_xloc],blue6,style=label.style_none,text="6 bars upward: "+tostring(blue6)) // //label.delete(label_6up[1]) // label_67=label.new(bar_index[p67_lable_xloc],p67_label_yloc,style=label.style_labeldown,text="7 bars same direction", color=color.orange) // label.delete(label_67[1]) //Plot Time Label time_label_yloc=1.4*100 time_lable_xloc=round((p67_red_xloc+p23_blue_xloc)/2) time_label_text="Bar's Direction Info From: "+tostring(FromDay)+"/"+tostring(FromMonth)+"/"+tostring(FromYear)+" To: "+tostring(ToDay)+"/"+tostring(ToMonth)+"/"+tostring(ToYear) // label_time=label.new(bar_index[time_lable_xloc],time_label_yloc,style=label.style_none,text=time_label_text, color=color.aqua) // label.delete(label_time[1]) //Signal //Put signal x1= pblue3<50?blue2[0]>blue2[1] and blue3[0]==blue3[1]:false x2= pblue4<50?blue3[0]>blue3[1] and blue4[0]==blue4[1]:false x3= pblue5<50?blue4[0]>blue4[1] and blue5[0]==blue5[1]:false x4= pblue6<50?blue5[0]>blue5[1] and blue6[0]==blue6[1]:false x5= pblue7<50?blue6[0]>blue6[1] and blue7[0]==blue7[1]:false //Call signal y1= pred3<50?red2[0]>red2[1] and red3[0]==red3[1]:false y2= pred4<50?red3[0]>red3[1] and red4[0]==red4[1]:false y3= pred5<50?red4[0]>red4[1] and red5[0]==red5[1]:false y4= pred6<50?red5[0]>red5[1] and red6[0]==red6[1]:false y5= pred7<50?red6[0]>red6[1] and red7[0]==red7[1]:false //Function xTech= set1?x1:false or set2?x2:false or set3?x3:false or set4?x4:false or set5?x5:false yTech= set1?y1:false or set2?y2:false or set3?y3:false or set4?y4:false or set5?y5:false //Plot Analyzing Signals hline1=hline(-100) hline2=hline(-1.6*100) hline0=hline(0) sigtext=xTech?"Put signal":yTech?"Call signal":"Analyzing Signals - Bar's Time left:"+tostring(minutesLeft)+":"+tostring(secondsLeft) sig_col=xTech?color.new(color.red,0):yTech?color.new(color.blue,0):color.new(color.navy,0) // label_sig_text = label.new(bar_index[0], -1.5*100, text=sigtext, style=label.style_none, textcolor=sig_col, size=size.large) // label.delete(label_sig_text[1]) //plot Signal putcol = xTech? color.red : na callcol = yTech? color.blue : na PutSignal= xTech and window1() and t0_DvM?-100:na CallSignal= yTech and window1() and t0_DvM?-100:na plot(PutSignal, title='Put Signal', style=plot.style_columns, color=color.red, offset=1, transp=0) plot(CallSignal, title='Call Signal', style=plot.style_columns, color=color.blue, offset=1, transp=0) plotshape(PutSignal, title='Put', text="Put", style=shape.labeldown, location=location.bottom, color=color.orange, textcolor=color.black, offset=1, transp=0) plotshape(CallSignal, title='Call', text="Call", style=shape.labelup, location=location.bottom, color=color.orange, textcolor=color.black, offset=1, transp=0) //Backtesting strategy.entry("Call", strategy.long, when=yTech and window1() and t0_DvM) strategy.entry("Put", strategy.short, when=xTech and window1() and t0_DvM) strategy.close_all(when=barstate.isnew) //EOF