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Strategi Pelacakan Tren Berdasarkan Momentum Breakout

Penulis:ChaoZhang, Tanggal: 2023-11-06 09:37:44
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Gambaran umum

Strategi ini menggabungkan beberapa indikator teknis untuk mengidentifikasi arah tren dan melacak momentum ketika pecah terjadi, bertujuan untuk keuntungan yang berlebihan.

Logika Strategi

  1. Gunakan saluran Donchian untuk menentukan tren keseluruhan.

  2. Hull Moving Average membantu menilai arah tren. Hal ini sensitif terhadap perubahan harga dan dapat mendeteksi awal pembalikan tren.

  3. Sistem Halftrend menghasilkan sinyal beli dan jual berdasarkan saluran harga dan rentang ATR.

  4. Ketika sinyal Donchian, Hull dan Halftrend sejajar, momentum yang kuat dikonfirmasi dan strategi masuk.

  5. Keluar ketika indikator di atas memberikan sinyal terbalik, menunjukkan pembalikan tren.

Analisis Keuntungan

  • Sinyal yang lebih kuat dengan beberapa indikator Donchian untuk fundamental, Hull dan Halftrend untuk detail.

  • Mencari keuntungan yang berlebihan dengan momentum breakout. hanya masuk pada strong breakout, menghindari whipsaw dalam konsolidasi.

  • Stop loss yang ketat untuk memastikan keamanan modal.

  • Fleksibel pengaturan parameter untuk pasar yang berbeda. panjang saluran, rentang ATR dll dapat disesuaikan dan dioptimalkan.

  • Mudah dimengerti dan diimplementasikan.

Analisis Risiko

  • Meninggalkan peluang tren awal. entri relatif terlambat, reli awal tidak ditangkap.

  • Kerugian dari kegagalan breakout dan pembalikan.

  • Sinyal palsu dari parameter yang salah.

  • Frekuensi perdagangan terbatas. Hanya breakout yang jelas yang diperdagangkan, menghasilkan jumlah perdagangan tahunan yang rendah.

Arahan Optimasi

  • Mengoptimalkan kombinasi parameter dengan pengujian.

  • Tambahkan kondisi stop loss trailing. Hindari stop loss prematur.

  • Memperkenalkan lebih banyak filter seperti MACD, KDJ untuk menyaring sinyal buruk.

  • Optimalkan parameter untuk sesi yang berbeda.

  • Meningkatkan efisiensi modal melalui leverage, DCA dll.

Ringkasan

Strategi ini menggabungkan beberapa indikator untuk mengidentifikasi momentum dari tren yang telah ditetapkan, dan keuntungan dari pelacakan tren. Stop loss yang ketat mengelola risiko. Parameter yang fleksibel beradaptasi dengan lingkungan pasar yang berbeda. Meskipun frekuensi perdagangan rendah, setiap perdagangan menargetkan profitabilitas tinggi. Strategi dapat terus ditingkatkan melalui penyesuaian parameter, filter tambahan, dll.


/*backtest
start: 2023-10-29 00:00:00
end: 2023-11-05 00:00:00
period: 1m
basePeriod: 1m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// © kgynofomo

// @version=5
strategy(title="[Salavi] | Andy Super Pro Strategy",overlay = true)

//Doinchian Trend Ribbon
dlen = input.int(defval=30, minval=10)

dchannel(len) =>
    float hh = ta.highest(len)
    float ll = ta.lowest(len)

    int trend = 0
    trend := close > hh[1] ? 1 : close < ll[1] ? -1 : nz(trend[1])
    trend

dchannelalt(len, maintrend) =>
    float hh = ta.highest(len)
    float ll = ta.lowest(len)

    int trend = 0
    trend := close > hh[1] ? 1 : close < ll[1] ? -1 : nz(trend[1])
    maintrend == 1 ? trend == 1 ? #00FF00ff : #00FF009f : maintrend == -1 ? trend == -1 ? #FF0000ff : #FF00009f : na

maintrend = dchannel(dlen)
donchian_bull = maintrend==1
donchian_bear = maintrend==-1


//Hulls
src = input(hlc3, title='Source')
modeSwitch = input.string('Hma', title='Hull Variation', options=['Hma', 'Thma', 'Ehma'])
length = input(55, title='Length')
lengthMult = input(1.0, title='Length multiplier ')

useHtf = false
htf = '240'

switchColor = true
candleCol = false
visualSwitch = true
thicknesSwitch = 1
transpSwitch = 40

//FUNCTIONS
//HMA
HMA(_src, _length) =>
    ta.wma(2 * ta.wma(_src, _length / 2) - ta.wma(_src, _length), math.round(math.sqrt(_length)))
//EHMA    
EHMA(_src, _length) =>
    ta.ema(2 * ta.ema(_src, _length / 2) - ta.ema(_src, _length), math.round(math.sqrt(_length)))
//THMA    
THMA(_src, _length) =>
    ta.wma(ta.wma(_src, _length / 3) * 3 - ta.wma(_src, _length / 2) - ta.wma(_src, _length), _length)

//SWITCH
Mode(modeSwitch, src, len) =>
    modeSwitch == 'Hma' ? HMA(src, len) : modeSwitch == 'Ehma' ? EHMA(src, len) : modeSwitch == 'Thma' ? THMA(src, len / 2) : na

//OUT
_hull = Mode(modeSwitch, src, int(length * lengthMult))
HULL = useHtf ? request.security(syminfo.ticker, htf, _hull) : _hull
MHULL = HULL[0]
SHULL = HULL[2]

//COLOR
hullColor = switchColor ? HULL > HULL[2] ? #00ff00 : #ff0000 : #ff9800
hull_bull = HULL > HULL[2]
bull_start = hull_bull and hull_bull[1]==false
hull_bear = HULL < HULL[2]
bear_start = hull_bear and hull_bear[1]==false

barcolor(color=candleCol ? switchColor ? hullColor : na : na)

//halftrend
amplitude = input(title='Amplitude', defval=2)
channelDeviation = input(title='Channel Deviation', defval=2)
// showArrows = input(title='Show Arrows', defval=true)
// showChannels = input(title='Show Channels', defval=true)

var int trend = 0
var int nextTrend = 0
var float maxLowPrice = nz(low[1], low)
var float minHighPrice = nz(high[1], high)

var float up = 0.0
var float down = 0.0
float atrHigh = 0.0
float atrLow = 0.0
float arrowUp = na
float arrowDown = na

atr2 = ta.atr(100) / 2
dev = channelDeviation * atr2

highPrice = high[math.abs(ta.highestbars(amplitude))]
lowPrice = low[math.abs(ta.lowestbars(amplitude))]
highma = ta.sma(high, amplitude)
lowma = ta.sma(low, amplitude)

if nextTrend == 1
    maxLowPrice := math.max(lowPrice, maxLowPrice)

    if highma < maxLowPrice and close < nz(low[1], low)
        trend := 1
        nextTrend := 0
        minHighPrice := highPrice
        minHighPrice
else
    minHighPrice := math.min(highPrice, minHighPrice)

    if lowma > minHighPrice and close > nz(high[1], high)
        trend := 0
        nextTrend := 1
        maxLowPrice := lowPrice
        maxLowPrice

if trend == 0
    if not na(trend[1]) and trend[1] != 0
        up := na(down[1]) ? down : down[1]
        arrowUp := up - atr2
        arrowUp
    else
        up := na(up[1]) ? maxLowPrice : math.max(maxLowPrice, up[1])
        up
    atrHigh := up + dev
    atrLow := up - dev
    atrLow
else
    if not na(trend[1]) and trend[1] != 1
        down := na(up[1]) ? up : up[1]
        arrowDown := down + atr2
        arrowDown
    else
        down := na(down[1]) ? minHighPrice : math.min(minHighPrice, down[1])
        down
    atrHigh := down + dev
    atrLow := down - dev
    atrLow

ht = trend == 0 ? up : down

var color buyColor = color.blue
var color sellColor = color.red

htColor = trend == 0 ? buyColor : sellColor
// htPlot = plot(ht, title='HalfTrend', linewidth=2, color=htColor)

// atrHighPlot = plot(showChannels ? atrHigh : na, title='ATR High', style=plot.style_circles, color=color.new(sellColor, 0))
// atrLowPlot = plot(showChannels ? atrLow : na, title='ATR Low', style=plot.style_circles, color=color.new(buyColor, 0))

// fill(htPlot, atrHighPlot, title='ATR High Ribbon', color=color.new(sellColor, 90))
// fill(htPlot, atrLowPlot, title='ATR Low Ribbon', color=color.new(buyColor, 90))

HalfTrend_buySignal = not na(arrowUp) and trend == 0 and trend[1] == 1
HalfTrend_sellSignal = not na(arrowDown) and trend == 1 and trend[1] == 0

// plotshape(showArrows and buySignal ? atrLow : na, title='Arrow Up', style=shape.triangleup, location=location.absolute, size=size.tiny, color=color.new(buyColor, 0))
// plotshape(showArrows and sellSignal ? atrHigh : na, title='Arrow Down', style=shape.triangledown, location=location.absolute, size=size.tiny, color=color.new(sellColor, 0))




//ema
filter_ema = ta.ema(close,200)
ema_bull = close>filter_ema
ema_bear = close<filter_ema

atr_length = input.int(7)
atr = ta.atr(atr_length)
atr_rsi_length = input.int(50)
atr_rsi = ta.rsi(atr,atr_rsi_length)
atr_valid = atr_rsi>50

longCondition = bull_start and atr_valid
shortCondition = bear_start and atr_valid

Exit_long_condition = shortCondition
Exit_short_condition = longCondition

if longCondition
    strategy.entry("Andy Buy",strategy.long, limit=close,comment="Andy Buy Here")

if Exit_long_condition
    strategy.close("Andy Buy",comment="Andy Buy Out")
    // strategy.entry("Andy fandan Short",strategy.short, limit=close,comment="Andy 翻單 short Here")
    // strategy.close("Andy fandan Buy",comment="Andy short Out")


if shortCondition
    strategy.entry("Andy Short",strategy.short, limit=close,comment="Andy short Here")


// strategy.exit("STR","Long",stop=longstoploss)
if Exit_short_condition
    strategy.close("Andy Short",comment="Andy short Out")
    // strategy.entry("Andy fandan Buy",strategy.long, limit=close,comment="Andy 翻單 Buy Here")
    // strategy.close("Andy fandan Short",comment="Andy Buy Out")




inLongTrade = strategy.position_size > 0
inLongTradecolor = #58D68D
notInTrade = strategy.position_size == 0
inShortTrade = strategy.position_size < 0

// bgcolor(color = inLongTrade?color.rgb(76, 175, 79, 70):inShortTrade?color.rgb(255, 82, 82, 70):na)
plotshape(close!=0,location = location.bottom,color = inLongTrade?color.green:inShortTrade?color.red:na)


plotshape(longCondition, title='Buy', text='Andy Buy', style=shape.labelup, location=location.belowbar, color=color.new(color.green, 0), textcolor=color.new(color.white, 0), size=size.tiny)
plotshape(shortCondition, title='Sell', text='Andy Sell', style=shape.labeldown, location=location.abovebar, color=color.new(color.red, 0), textcolor=color.new(color.white, 0), size=size.tiny)

Fi1 = plot(MHULL, title='MHULL', color=hullColor, linewidth=thicknesSwitch, transp=50)
Fi2 = plot(SHULL, title='SHULL', color=hullColor, linewidth=thicknesSwitch, transp=50)

fill(Fi1, Fi2, title='Band Filler', color=hullColor, transp=transpSwitch)




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