Three Candle Reversal Trend Strategy adalah strategi perdagangan jangka pendek yang mengidentifikasi pembalikan tren jangka pendek dengan mendeteksi tiga lilin bullish atau bearish berturut-turut diikuti oleh lilin yang menelan ke arah yang berlawanan, dikombinasikan dengan beberapa indikator teknis untuk menyaring sinyal masuk.
Logika inti dari strategi ini adalah untuk mengidentifikasi pola tiga lilin bullish atau bearish berturut-turut pada grafik, yang biasanya menyiratkan pembalikan yang akan datang dalam tren jangka pendek. Ketika tiga lilin bearish terdeteksi, tunggu lilin bullish yang akan datang untuk pergi panjang. Sebaliknya, ketika tiga lilin bullish terdeteksi, tunggu lilin bearish yang akan datang untuk pergi pendek. Ini memungkinkan menangkap peluang pembalikan dalam tren jangka pendek secara tepat waktu.
Selain itu, beberapa indikator teknis diperkenalkan untuk menyaring sinyal masuk. Dua garis SMA dengan pengaturan parameter yang berbeda diadopsi, dan posisi masuk hanya dipertimbangkan ketika SMA yang lebih cepat melintasi garis yang lebih lambat. Selain itu, indikator regresi linier digunakan untuk menilai apakah pasar berkisar atau tren, dan perdagangan hanya diambil dalam kondisi tren. Ada juga pilihan untuk menggabungkan pola lilin dengan salib emas SMA untuk sinyal masuk tambahan. Melalui penilaian komprehensif dari indikator ini, sebagian besar kebisingan dapat disaring dan akurasi masuk dapat ditingkatkan.
Untuk stop loss dan take profit, strategi ini membutuhkan rasio risiko-manfaat minimal 1: 3. Indikator ATR berdasarkan fluktuasi harga N lilin baru-baru ini digunakan untuk menentukan tingkat stop loss dengan persentase offset. Take profit kemudian dihitung sesuai dengan target laba yang berlebihan untuk risiko yang diambil.
Strategi Trend Reversal Tiga Lilin memiliki keuntungan berikut:
Ada juga beberapa risiko yang harus diperhatikan untuk strategi ini:
Strategi dapat ditingkatkan dalam aspek berikut:
Kesimpulannya, Strategi Trend Reversal Tiga Lilin adalah strategi perdagangan jangka pendek yang sederhana yang memanfaatkan pola harga dan beberapa indikator untuk menangkap peluang pembalikan, dibangun pada profil risiko-pahala yang seimbang dengan baik. Ini memberikan hasil yang terhormat dengan kompleksitas yang relatif rendah, dan layak perhatian investor dan pengujian.
/*backtest start: 2024-01-01 00:00:00 end: 2024-01-31 23:59:59 period: 3h basePeriod: 15m exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}] */ // This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/ // © platsn // // Mainly developed for SPY trading on 1 min chart. But feel free to try on other tickers. // Basic idea of this strategy is to look for 3 candle reversal pattern within trending market structure. The 3 candle reversal pattern consist of 3 consecutive bullish or bearish candles, // followed by an engulfing candle in the opposite direction. This pattern usually signals a reversal of short term trend. This strategy also uses multiple moving averages to filter long or short // entries. ie. if the 21 smoothed moving average is above the 50, only look for long (bullish) entries, and vise versa. There is option change these moving average periods to suit your needs. // I also choose to use Linear Regression to determine whether the market is ranging or trending. It seems the 3 candle pattern is more successful under trending market. Hence I use it as a filter. // There is also an option to combine this strategy with moving average crossovers. The idea is to look for 3 canddle pattern right after a fast moving average crosses over a slow moving average. // By default , 21 and 50 smoothed moving averages are used. This gives additional entry opportunites and also provides better results. // This strategy aims for 1:3 risk to reward ratio. Stop losses are calculated using the closest low or high values for long or short entries, respectively, with an offset using a percentage of // the daily ATR value. This allows some price flucuation without being stopped out prematurely. Price target is calculated by multiplying the difference between the entry price and the stop loss // by a factor of 3. When price target is reach, this strategy will set stop loss at the price target and wait for exit considion to maximize potential profit. // This strategy will exit an order if an opposing 3 candle pattern is detected, this could happend before stop loss or price target is reached, and may also happen after price target is reached. // *Note that this strategy is designed for same day SPY option scalping. I haven't determined an easy way to calculate the # of contracts to represent the equivalent option values. Plus the option // prices varies greatly depending on which strike and expiry that may suits your trading style. Therefore, please be mindful of the net profit shown. By default, each entry is approxiately equal // to buying 10 of same day or 1 day expiry call or puts at strike $1 - $2 OTM. This strategy will close all open trades at 3:45pm EST on Mon, Wed, and Fri. // **Note that this strategy also takes into account of extended market data. // ***Note pyramiding is set to 2 by default, so it allows for multiple entries on the way towards price target. // Remember that market conditions are always changing. This strategy was only able to be backtested using 1 month of data. This strategy may not work the next month. Please keep that in mind. // ***************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** //@version=5 strategy("3 Candle Strike Stretegy", overlay=true, pyramiding=2, initial_capital=5000, commission_type=strategy.commission.cash_per_contract, commission_value = 0.01) // ******************** Period ************************************** startY = input(title='Start Year', defval=2011, group = "Trading window") startM = input.int(title='Start Month', defval=1, minval=1, maxval=12, group = "Trading window") startD = input.int(title='Start Day', defval=1, minval=1, maxval=31, group = "Trading window") finishY = input(title='Finish Year', defval=2050, group = "Trading window") finishM = input.int(title='Finish Month', defval=12, minval=1, maxval=12, group = "Trading window") finishD = input.int(title='Finish Day', defval=31, minval=1, maxval=31, group = "Trading window") timestart = timestamp(startY, startM, startD, 00, 00) timefinish = timestamp(finishY, finishM, finishD, 23, 59) t1 = time(timeframe.period, "0930-1545:23456") window = true // ***************************************************** isSPY = input.bool(defval=true,title="SPY trading only", group = "Trading Options") SPY_option = input.int(defval=10,title="# of SPY options per trade", group = "Trading Options") reinvest = input.bool(defval=false,title="reinvest profit?", group = "Trading Options") src = close // ***************************************************************************************************** Daily ATR ***************************************************** // Inputs atrlen = input.int(14, minval=1, title="ATR period", group = "Daily ATR") iPercent = input.float(5, minval=1, maxval=100, step=0.1, title="% ATR to use for SL / PT", group = "Daily ATR") // PTPercent = input.int(100, minval=1, title="% ATR for PT") // Logic percentage = iPercent * 0.01 datr = request.security(syminfo.tickerid, "1D", ta.rma(ta.tr, atrlen)) datrp = datr * percentage // datrPT = datr * PTPercent * 0.01 plot(datr,"Daily ATR") plot(datrp, "Daily % ATR") // ***************************************************************************************************************** Moving Averages ************************ len0 = input.int(8, minval=1, title='Fast EMA', group= "Moving Averages") ema1 = ta.ema(src, len0) len1 = input.int(21, minval=1, title='Fast SMMA', group= "Moving Averages") smma1 = 0.0 sma_1 = ta.sma(src, len1) smma1 := na(smma1[1]) ? sma_1 : (smma1[1] * (len1 - 1) + src) / len1 len2 = input.int(50, minval=1, title='Slow SMMA', group= "Moving Averages") smma2 = 0.0 sma_2 = ta.sma(src, len2) smma2 := na(smma2[1]) ? sma_2 : (smma2[1] * (len2 - 1) + src) / len2 len3 = input.int(200, minval=1, title='Slow SMMA', group= "Moving Averages") smma3 = 0.0 sma_3 = ta.sma(src, len3) smma3 := na(smma3[1]) ? sma_3 : (smma3[1] * (len3 - 1) + src) / len3 ma_bull = smma1 > smma2 and smma1 > smma1[1] ma_bear = smma1 < smma2 and smma1 < smma1[1] ma_bull_macro = smma1 > smma3 and smma2 > smma3 ma_bear_macro = smma1 < smma3 and smma2 < smma3 // plot(ma_bull? 1 : 0, "MA bull") // plot(ma_bear? 1 : 0 , "MA bear") // **************************************************************************************************************** Linear Regression ************************* //Input clen = input.int(defval = 50, minval = 1, title = "Linear Regression Period", group = "Linear Regression") slen = input.int(defval=50, minval=1, title="LR Slope Period" , group = "Linear Regression") glen = input.int(defval=14, minval=1, title="LR Signal Period", group = "Linear Regression") LR_thres = input.float(0.03, minval=0, step=0.001, title="LR Threshold for Ranging vs Trending" , group = "Linear Regression") //Linear Regression Curve lrc = ta.linreg(src, clen, 0) //Linear Regression Slope lrs = (lrc-lrc[1])/1 //Smooth Linear Regression Slope slrs = ta.ema(lrs, slen) //Signal Linear Regression Slope alrs = ta.sma(slrs, glen) up_accel = lrs > alrs and lrs > 0 down_accel = lrs < alrs and lrs < 0 LR_ranging = math.abs(slrs) <= LR_thres LR_trending = math.abs(slrs) > LR_thres plot(slrs, "LR slope") plot(LR_trending?1:0, "LR Trending") // *********************************************************************************************************************************** Candle conditions ************************** bull_3s = close[3] <= open[3] and close[2] <= open[2] and close[1] <= open[1] and close > open[1] bear_3s = close[3] >= open[3] and close[2] >= open[2] and close[1] >= open[1] and close < open[1] plotshape(bull_3s, style=shape.triangleup, color=color.new(color.green, 0), location=location.belowbar, size=size.small, text='3s-Bull', title='3 Line Strike Up') plotshape(bear_3s, style=shape.triangledown, color=color.new(color.red, 0), location=location.abovebar, size=size.small, text='3s-Bear', title='3 Line Strike Down') // ***************************************************************************************************************************************** SL & PT *********************************** RR = input.float(3.0, minval = 1, step = 0.1, title="Reward to Risk Ratio", group = "Trading Options") barsSinceLastEntry()=> strategy.opentrades > 0 ? (bar_index - strategy.opentrades.entry_bar_index(strategy.opentrades-1)) : na last_high = math.max(high, high[1], high[2], high[3]) last_low = math.min(low, low[1], low[2], low[3]) long_SL = last_low - datrp short_SL = last_high + datrp long_PT = last_high short_PT = last_low last_entry = strategy.opentrades.entry_price(strategy.opentrades-1) risk = last_entry - long_SL if strategy.opentrades > 0 long_SL := math.min(long_SL[barsSinceLastEntry()], last_low) short_SL := math.max(short_SL[barsSinceLastEntry()], last_high) risk := last_entry - long_SL long_PT := last_entry + (last_entry - long_SL) * RR short_PT := last_entry - (short_SL - last_entry) * RR else long_PT := open + (open - long_SL) * RR short_PT := open - (short_SL - open) * RR // plot(short_SL,title = "Short SL", color=color.new(color.purple,30)) // plot(long_SL,title = "Long SL", color=color.new(color.purple,30)) // plot(long_PT,title = "Long PT", color=color.new(color.white,50)) // plot(short_PT,title = "Short PT", color=color.new(color.white,50)) // plot(last_entry, title = "Last entry") // plot(risk, title = "Risk") // **************************************************************************************************************************************** Trade Pauses **************************************** bool trade_pause = false bool trade_pause2 = false if high - low > datr*0.3 trade_pause := true else trade_pause := false no_longat10 = input.bool(true, title="No long entry between 10 - 10:30 (Avoid 10 am dump)", group = "Trading Options") // ************************************************************************************************************************************ Entry conditions ************************** trade_3s = input.bool(title='Trade 3s candle pattern', defval=true, group = "Trading Options") L_entry1 = bull_3s and ma_bull and LR_trending S_entry1 = bear_3s and ma_bear and LR_trending trade_ma_reversal = input.bool(title='Trade MA Cross Reversal Signal', defval=true, group = "Trading Options") L_entry2 = ma_bear_macro and ema1 > smma1 and bull_3s and ta.barssince(ta.cross(ema1,smma1)) < 10 S_entry2 = ma_bull_macro and ema1 < smma1 and bear_3s and ta.barssince(ta.cross(ema1,smma1)) < 10 // ************************************************************************************************************************************** Exit Conditions ******************************** // bsle_thres = input.int(0, "Bar since entry threshold") // exit0 = barsSinceLastEntry() >= bsle_thres exit0 = true L_exit1 = bear_3s S_exit1 = bull_3s // ************************************************************************************************************************************ Entry and Exit orders ***************************** strategy.initial_capital = 50000 trade_amount = math.floor(strategy.initial_capital / close) if isSPY if strategy.netprofit > 0 and reinvest trade_amount := math.floor((strategy.initial_capital + strategy.netprofit) * 0.2 / 600) * 10 * SPY_option else trade_amount := math.floor(strategy.initial_capital * 0.2 / 600) * 10 * SPY_option if not(trade_pause) and not(trade_pause2) and time(timeframe.period, "0930-1540:23456") if trade_3s if not(time(timeframe.period, "1000-1030:23456")) and no_longat10 strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, 1, when = L_entry1 and window, comment="Long 3s" + " SL=" + str.tostring(math.round(long_SL,2)) + " PT=" + str.tostring(math.round(long_PT,2))) strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short, 1, when = S_entry1 and window, comment = "Short 3s" + " SL=" + str.tostring(math.round(short_SL,2)) + " PT=" + str.tostring(math.round(short_PT,2))) if trade_ma_reversal strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, 1, when = L_entry2 and window, comment="Long MA cross" + " SL=" + str.tostring(math.round(long_SL,2)) + " PT=" + str.tostring(math.round(long_PT,2))) strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short, 1, when = S_entry2 and window, comment = "Short MA corss" + " SL=" + str.tostring(math.round(short_SL,2)) + " PT=" + str.tostring(math.round(short_PT,2))) if high > long_PT long_SL := low[1] strategy.exit("Exit", "Long", when = exit0 and low < long_PT, stop= long_SL, comment = "Exit Long SL/PT hit") strategy.close("Long", when = L_exit1, comment = "Exit on Bear Signal") if low < short_PT short_SL := high[1] strategy.exit("Exit", "Short", when= exit0 and high > short_PT, stop= short_SL, comment = "Exit Short SL/PT hit") strategy.close("Short", when = S_exit1, comment = "Exit on Bull Signal") if time(timeframe.period, "1545-1600:246") strategy.close_all()