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移動平均キャンドル回帰戦略

作者: リン・ハーンチャオチャン, 日付: 2023-09-14 17:50:14
タグ:

戦略の論理

この戦略は様々な技術指標と戦略を組み合わせ,主に指数のエントリーポイントとアウトプートのポイントを決定します.

鍵となる論理は

  1. 開いた,閉じた,高い,低いを含む移動平均キャンドルを計算

  2. MAキャンドルのモメントとモメントの線形回帰を計算する

  3. MAキャンドルの直線回帰を計算する

  4. SuperTrend を使って,全体的な方向性を決定します.

  5. 運動回帰がマイナスから正または強く正に変わると

  6. ポジティブからネガティブに変化したり 弱くなったりすると

この戦略は,指数取引のタイミングを決定するための短期および長期間の市場動向とリズムを評価するための様々な指標を合成しています.

利点

  • MAキャンドルは中長期の傾向を反映しています

  • リグレッション分析は傾向の変化を特定する

  • スーパートレンドは全体的な方向性を支援します

  • 複数の指標により正確性が向上します

リスク

  • 複雑なパラメータ最適化

  • 複数の指標をバランスさせるのが難しい

  • 頻度が少ない信号は,取引頻度が低いことを意味します.

概要

この戦略は,短期および長期的パターン分析によって市場タイミング信号を明らかにすることを目的としています.しかし,パラメータ調整とモデル最適化には改善が必要です.


/*backtest
start: 2023-09-06 00:00:00
end: 2023-09-13 00:00:00
period: 15m
basePeriod: 5m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// © HeWhoMustNotBeNamed

//@version=4
strategy("MACandles-LinearRegression-Strategy", shorttitle="MALinReg - Strategy",
                     overlay=false, initial_capital = 100000, 
                     default_qty_type = strategy.percent_of_equity, default_qty_value = 100, commission_type = strategy.commission.percent, pyramiding = 1, 
                     commission_value = 0.01)
resolution = ""
MAType = input(title="Moving Average Type (MA Candles)", defval="hma", options=["ema", "sma", "hma", "rma", "vwma", "wma"])
LoopbackBars = input(60, title="Length (MA Candles)", step=10)

MMAType = input(title="Moving Average Type (Momentum)", defval="ema", options=["ema", "sma", "hma", "rma", "vwma", "wma"])
MLength = input(20, title="MA Length (Momentum)", step=10)

lb = input(40  , title="Look Back Period Percentile High/Low", step=10, minval=10, maxval=100)
ph = input(.85, title="Highest Percentile - 0.90=90%, 0.95=95%, 0.99=99%")
pl = input(1.01, title="Lowest Percentile - 1.10=90%, 1.05=95%, 1.01=99%")
mult = input(3.0    , minval=1, maxval=5, title="Bollinger Band Standard Devaition Up")

aggressiveLong = input(true)
longTrades = input(true)
useVixFix = input(false)
i_startTime = input(defval = timestamp("01 Jan 2010 00:00 +0000"), title = "Start Time", type = input.time)
i_endTime = input(defval = timestamp("01 Jan 2099 00:00 +0000"), title = "End Time", type = input.time)
inDateRange = true


f_getMovingAverage(source, MAType, length)=>
    ma = sma(source, length)
    if(MAType == "ema")
        ma := ema(source,length)
    if(MAType == "hma")
        ma := hma(source,length)
    if(MAType == "rma")
        ma := rma(source,length)
    if(MAType == "vwma")
        ma := vwma(source,length)
    if(MAType == "wma")
        ma := wma(source,length)
    ma

f_getMACandles(resolution, MAType, LoopbackBars)=>
    oOpen = f_getMovingAverage(open, MAType, LoopbackBars)
    oClose = f_getMovingAverage(close, MAType, LoopbackBars)
    oHigh = f_getMovingAverage(high, MAType, LoopbackBars)
    oLow = f_getMovingAverage(low, MAType, LoopbackBars)
    [oOpen, oClose, oHigh, oLow]

f_getVixFixLinReg(oClose, oLow, MLength)=>
    wvf = ((highest(oClose, MLength)-oLow)/(highest(oClose, MLength)))*100
    
    sDev = mult * stdev(wvf, MLength)
    midLine = sma(wvf, MLength)
    lowerBand = midLine - sDev
    upperBand = midLine + sDev
    
    rangeHigh = (highest(wvf, lb)) * ph
    rangeLow = (lowest(wvf, lb)) * pl
    
    
    col = wvf >= upperBand or wvf >= rangeHigh ? color.lime : color.gray
    
    val = linreg(wvf, MLength, 0)
    absVal = abs(val)
    linRegColor = val>val[1]? (val > 0 ? color.green : color.orange): (val > 0 ? color.lime : color.red)
    
    vixFixState = (col == color.lime) ? 1: 0
    vixFixState := strategy.position_size == 0? max(vixFixState, nz(vixFixState[1],0)) : vixFixState
    [val, absVal, wvf, col, linRegColor, vixFixState]
    
f_getMACandlesLinReg(oClose, MMAType, MLength, mult, lb, ph, pl)=>
    ma = f_getMovingAverage(oClose, MMAType, MLength)
    
    maDiff = oClose  -  ma
    val = linreg(maDiff, MLength,0)
    absVal = abs(val)
    linRegColor = iff( val > 0,
                 iff( val > nz(val[1]), color.green, color.lime),
                 iff( val < nz(val[1]), color.red, color.orange))
    
    
    sDev = mult * stdev(maDiff, MLength)
    midLine = sma(maDiff, MLength)
    lowerBand = midLine - sDev
    upperBand = midLine + sDev
    
    rangeHigh = (highest(maDiff, lb)) * ph
    rangeLow = (lowest(maDiff, lb)) * pl
    
    col = maDiff >= upperBand or maDiff >= rangeHigh ? color.lime : maDiff <= lowerBand or maDiff <= rangeLow ? color.orange : color.silver
    absMaDiff = abs(maDiff)
    [val, absVal, maDiff, absMaDiff, col, linRegColor]

f_getSupertrend(resolution, oOpen, oClose, oHigh, oLow, AtrMAType, AtrLength, AtrMult, wicks)=>
    truerange = max(oHigh, oClose[1]) - min(oLow, oClose[1])
    
    averagetruerange = f_getMovingAverage(truerange, AtrMAType, AtrLength)
    atr = averagetruerange * AtrMult

    longWicks = wicks
    shortWicks = wicks
    longStop = oClose - atr
    longStopPrev = nz(longStop[1], longStop)
    longStop := (longWicks ? oLow[1] : oClose[1]) > longStopPrev ? max(longStop, longStopPrev) : longStop
    
    shortStop = oClose + atr
    shortStopPrev = nz(shortStop[1], shortStop)
    shortStop := (shortWicks ? oHigh[1] : oClose[1]) < shortStopPrev ? min(shortStop, shortStopPrev) : shortStop
    
    dir = 1
    dir := nz(dir[1], dir)
    dir := dir == -1 and (longWicks ? oHigh : oClose) > shortStopPrev ? 1 : dir == 1 and (shortWicks[1]? oLow : oClose) < longStopPrev ? -1 : dir
    
    [dir, longStop, shortStop]

f_getMACandlesAndSupertrend(MAType, LoopbackBars, AtrMult, wicks)=>
    oOpen = f_getMovingAverage(open, MAType, LoopbackBars)
    oClose = f_getMovingAverage(close, MAType, LoopbackBars)
    oHigh = f_getMovingAverage(high, MAType, LoopbackBars)
    oLow = f_getMovingAverage(low, MAType, LoopbackBars)
    [dir, longStop, shortStop] = f_getSupertrend(resolution, oOpen, oClose, oHigh, oLow, MAType, LoopbackBars, AtrMult, wicks)
    dir

[oOpen, oClose, oHigh, oLow] = f_getMACandles(resolution, MAType, LoopbackBars)
dir = f_getMACandlesAndSupertrend("sma", 200, 1, false)
colorByPreviousClose = false
candleColor = colorByPreviousClose ?
                 (oClose[1] < oClose ? color.green : oClose[1] > oClose ? color.red : color.silver) : 
                 (oOpen < oClose ? color.green : oOpen > oClose ? color.red : color.silver)


[vval, vabsVal, wvf, vcol, vlinRegColor, vixFixState] = f_getVixFixLinReg(oClose, oLow, MLength)
[val, absVal, maDiff, absMaDiff, col, linRegColor] = f_getMACandlesLinReg(oClose, MMAType, MLength, mult, lb, ph, pl)


plot(useVixFix?na:absMaDiff, title="Momentum", style=plot.style_histogram, linewidth = 4, color=col)
plot(useVixFix?wvf:na, title="VIX Fix", style=plot.style_histogram, linewidth = 4, color=vcol)
plot(useVixFix?na:-absVal, title="Linear Regression (Momentum)", style=plot.style_histogram, linewidth=4, color=linRegColor)
plot(useVixFix?-vabsVal:na, title="Linear Regression (VIX Fix)", style=plot.style_histogram, linewidth=4, color=vlinRegColor)

exitColor = longTrades? color.orange : color.silver
exitPreviousColor = longTrades? color.silver : color.lime
longCondition = (useVixFix? (vixFixState == 1 and vlinRegColor == color.lime) :
                     ((linRegColor == color.orange and linRegColor[1] == color.red) or (linRegColor == color.green and linRegColor[1] != color.green and aggressiveLong)))  and inDateRange and dir>0
exitLongCondition = (col == exitColor and col[1] == exitColor and col[2] == exitPreviousColor and (linRegColor != color.green or not aggressiveLong))

strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, when=longCondition, oca_name="oca_buy")
strategy.close("Long", when=exitLongCondition)


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