マルチバー・ディレクション戦略は,複数のバーが同じ方向に動いている確率を計算することによって,トレンド逆転信号を特定する.主に中期取引に使用される.
この戦略は,まず,歴史的なデータ抽出のための開始および終了時間を設定する. 取引時間は,資格のあるキャンドルスタイクを識別するために設定される. 2〜7キャンドルスタイク内の連続したアップまたはダウンの可能性を計算する. 上下比率が限界を超えると取引信号が生成される.
例えば,3つのキャンドルスタイルのダウントレンドの確率が50%未満である場合,現在の3つのキャンドルスタイルは条件を満たし,購入信号が生成されます. 2から7バーまでのパラメータを設定できます.
具体的な論理は次のとおりです
開始日,終了日,取引時間を含むバックテストの時間範囲を設定します.
2から7本のろうそくの中に 同じ方向の上下を数えてください
隣接するろうそくの間を 上下へと進む確率を計算します
確率が50%未満なら 現在のキャンドルスタイクが逆転パターンと一致します
取引時間内に買い/売る信号を生成する.
戦略を検証するバックテストです
複数のろうそくの確率を考慮して 誤った信号を避ける
異なるタイムフレームで逆転信号を識別するための 調整可能なバー数
明確な取引時間は タイミングの悪いシグナルを 避けます
性能評価のための直感的な統計表示
様々な市場に適した多くの最適化可能なパラメータ
バールカウントは 傾向の逆転点を完全に判断できません 判断が間違っているのです
統計の長期化により 短期的な取引機会が 失われる可能性があります
静的
バックテスト期間選択によりオーバーフィッティングが発生する可能性があります.
可能な解決策:
異なるタイムフレームでバー数を最適化します
他の指標を組み込む.
市場変動に基づいて動的
バックテスト期間を拡大し,複数のバックテストを実行します.
戦略は以下の側面で最適化できます.
2から10までのバー数を最適化し,最適なパラメータを選択します.
市場変化を考慮して 40%から 60%のテスト逆転の
リスクを制限するために信号生成後にストップ損失を追加します.
RSIのような他の指標を組み込み 信号を検証します
パラメータテスト用の 期貨やフォレックスなどの製品を追加します
最適な組み合わせを見つけるために 増量パラメータ調整
自動で最適なパラメータを見つけるために 機械学習モデルを適用します
マルチバーディレクション戦略は,キャンドルスティック確率を統計的に分析することによって潜在的な逆転信号を特定する.しかし,パフォーマンスは十分な最適化に基づいてパラメータ調整に依存する.さらに,逆転信号には誤判リスクがあり,検証が必要である.全体として,これはさらなる研究と最適化に価値のあるシンプルで効果的な統計戦略である.
/*backtest start: 2023-10-16 00:00:00 end: 2023-10-17 00:00:00 period: 5m basePeriod: 1m exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}] */ // BO - Bar's direction Signal - Backtesting //anch.v43 // © inno14 //@version=4 strategy("BO - Bar's direction Signal - Backtesting", pyramiding=15) // === INPUT PERIOD OF TIME === Date = input(true, title = "=== Periods Counting ===") FromDay = input(defval = 1, title = "From Day", minval = 1, maxval = 31) FromMonth = input(defval = 1, title = "From Month", minval = 1, maxval = 12) FromYear = input(defval = 2020, title = "From Year", minval = 2017) ToDay = input(defval = 1, title = "To Day", minval = 1, maxval = 31) ToMonth = input(defval = 1, title = "To Month", minval = 1, maxval = 12) ToYear = input(defval = 9999, title = "To Year", minval = 2017) // === DATE RANGE === start = timestamp(FromYear, FromMonth, FromDay, 00, 00) // backtest start window finish = timestamp(ToYear, ToMonth, ToDay, 23, 59) // backtest finish window window() => time >= start and time <= finish ? true : false // create function "within window of time" // === Trading Time === CTimeDvM = input(true, title = "=== Trading Time ===") Time_zone = input(7,title="Time Zone") FromHourDvM = input(defval = 05, title = "From Hour", minval = 00, maxval = 23) FromMinuteDvM = input(defval = 00, title = "From Minute", minval = 00, maxval = 59) ToHourDvM = input(defval = 04, title = "To Hour", minval = 00, maxval = 23) ToMinuteDvM = input(defval = 59, title = "To Minute", minval = 00, maxval = 59) GMT_FHDvM=FromHourDvM<Time_zone?FromHourDvM-Time_zone+24:FromHourDvM-Time_zone GMT_THDvM=ToHourDvM<Time_zone?ToHourDvM-Time_zone+24:ToHourDvM-Time_zone fhDvM= (GMT_FHDvM<10?"0"+tostring(GMT_FHDvM):tostring(GMT_FHDvM)) fmDvM= (FromMinuteDvM<10?"0"+tostring(FromMinuteDvM):tostring(FromMinuteDvM)) thDvM= (GMT_THDvM<10?"0"+tostring(GMT_THDvM):tostring(GMT_THDvM)) tmDvM= (ToMinuteDvM<10?"0"+tostring(ToMinuteDvM):tostring(ToMinuteDvM)) WorkingHourDvM = fhDvM+fmDvM+"-"+thDvM+tmDvM t0_DvM = time(timeframe.period, WorkingHourDvM) htrtime = input(true,title="Highlight Tradingtime") bgcolor(htrtime? t0_DvM? color.gray : na:na, title="Trading Time", transp=90) // === Date Backtesting === Date1 = input(true, title = "=== Date Backtesting ===") FromDay1 = input(defval = 1, title = "From Day", minval = 1, maxval = 31) FromMonth1 = input(defval = 1, title = "From Month", minval = 1, maxval = 12) FromYear1 = input(defval = 2020, title = "From Year", minval = 2017) ToDay1 = input(defval = 1, title = "To Day", minval = 1, maxval = 31) ToMonth1 = input(defval = 1, title = "To Month", minval = 1, maxval = 12) ToYear1 = input(defval = 9999, title = "To Year", minval = 2017) // === DATE RANGE === start1 = timestamp(FromYear1, FromMonth1, FromDay1, 00, 00) // backtest start window finish1 = timestamp(ToYear1, ToMonth1, ToDay1, 23, 59) // backtest finish window window1() => time >= start1 and time <= finish1 ? true : false // create function "within window of time" // === Setup === Setup = input(true, title = "=== Setup Options ===") set1 = input(true, title = "Reversal after 2 bars same direction") set2 = input(true, title = "Reversal after 3 bars same direction") set3 = input(true, title = "Reversal after 4 bars same direction") set4 = input(true, title = "Reversal after 5 bars same direction") set5 = input(true, title = "Reversal after 6 bars same direction") // Calculate hours, minutes, and seconds till close timeLeft = barstate.isrealtime ? (time_close - timenow) / 1000 : na minutesLeft = floor((timeLeft % 3600) / 60) secondsLeft = timeLeft % 60 // truncate() truncates a given number // to a certain number of decimals truncate(number, decimals) => factor = pow(10, decimals) int(number * factor) / factor //count 2 redv2=window()?1:0 bluev2=window()?1:0 mchange2 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and t0_DvM?-1:0 pchange2 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and t0_DvM?1:0 blue2 = cum(pchange2 > 0 ? bluev2 : 0 * bluev2) red2 = cum(mchange2 < 0 ? redv2 : 0 * redv2) //count 3 redv3=window()?1:0 bluev3=window()?1:0 mchange3 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and close[2]<open[2] and t0_DvM?-1:0 pchange3 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and close[2]>open[2] and t0_DvM?1:0 blue3 = cum(pchange3 > 0 ? bluev3 : 0 * bluev3) red3 = cum(mchange3 < 0 ? redv3 : 0 * redv3) //count 4 redv4=window()?1:0 bluev4=window()?1:0 mchange4 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and close[2]<open[2] and close[3]<open[3] and t0_DvM?-1:0 pchange4 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and close[2]>open[2] and close[3]>open[3] and t0_DvM?1:0 blue4 = cum(pchange4 > 0 ? bluev4 : 0 * bluev4) red4 = cum(mchange4 < 0 ? redv4 : 0 * redv4) //count 5 redv5=window()?1:0 bluev5=window()?1:0 mchange5 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and close[2]<open[2] and close[3]<open[3] and close[4]<open[4] and t0_DvM?-1:0 pchange5 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and close[2]>open[2] and close[3]>open[3] and close[4]>open[4] and t0_DvM?1:0 blue5 = cum(pchange5 > 0 ? bluev5 : 0 * bluev5) red5 = cum(mchange5 < 0 ? redv5 : 0 * redv5) //count 6 redv6=window()?1:0 bluev6=window()?1:0 mchange6 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and close[2]<open[2] and close[3]<open[3] and close[4]<open[4] and close[5]<open[5] and t0_DvM?-1:0 pchange6 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and close[2]>open[2] and close[3]>open[3] and close[4]>open[4] and close[5]>open[5] and t0_DvM?1:0 blue6 = cum(pchange6 > 0 ? bluev6 : 0 * bluev6) red6 = cum(mchange6 < 0 ? redv6 : 0 * redv6) //count 7 redv7=window()?1:0 bluev7=window()?1:0 mchange7 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and close[2]<open[2] and close[3]<open[3] and close[4]<open[4] and close[5]<open[5] and close[6]<open[6] and t0_DvM?-1:0 pchange7 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and close[2]>open[2] and close[3]>open[3] and close[4]>open[4] and close[5]>open[5] and close[6]>open[6] and t0_DvM?1:0 blue7 = cum(pchange7 > 0 ? bluev7 : 0 * bluev7) red7 = cum(mchange7 < 0 ? redv7 : 0 * redv7) //Percent 3rd bar has same direction pred3=(red3/red2)*100 pblue3=(blue3/blue2)*100 //2->3 p23_blue_xloc=0 p23_red_xloc=2 p23_lable_xloc=round((p23_blue_xloc+p23_red_xloc)/2) p23_label_yloc=1.0*100 blue2_100=100 red2_100=100 plot(blue2_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=p23_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(red2_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p23_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(pblue3, style=plot.style_columns, offset=p23_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=40, show_last=1) plot(pred3, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p23_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=40, show_last=1) // label_pred_23=label.new(bar_index[p23_red_xloc],pred3,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pred3,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pred_23[1]) //label_2dn=label.new(bar_index[p23_red_xloc],red2,style=label.style_none,text="2 bars downward: "+tostring(red2)) //label.delete(label_2dn[1]) // label_pblue_23=label.new(bar_index[p23_blue_xloc],pblue3,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pblue3,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pblue_23[1]) //label_2up=label.new(bar_index[p23_blue_xloc],blue2,style=label.style_none,text="2 bars upward: "+tostring(blue2)) //label.delete(label_2up[1]) // label_23=label.new(bar_index[p23_lable_xloc],p23_label_yloc,style=label.style_labeldown,text="3 bars same direction", color=color.orange) // label.delete(label_23[1]) //Percent 4th bar has same direction pred4=(red4/red3)*100 pblue4=(blue4/blue3)*100 //3->4 p34_blue_xloc=4 p34_red_xloc=6 p34_lable_xloc=round((p34_blue_xloc+p34_red_xloc)/2) p34_label_yloc=1.0*100 blue3_100=100 red3_100=100 plot(blue3_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p34_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(red3_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p34_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(pblue4, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p34_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=40, show_last=1) plot(pred4, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p34_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=40, show_last=1) // label_pred_34=label.new(bar_index[p34_red_xloc],pred4,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pred4,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pred_34[1]) // //label_3dn=label.new(bar_index[p34_red_xloc],red3,style=label.style_none,text="3 bars downward: "+tostring(red3)) // //label.delete(label_3dn[1]) // label_pblue_34=label.new(bar_index[p34_blue_xloc],pblue4,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pblue4,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pblue_34[1]) // //label_3up=label.new(bar_index[p34_blue_xloc],blue3,style=label.style_none,text="3 bars upward: "+tostring(blue3)) // //label.delete(label_3up[1]) // label_34=label.new(bar_index[p34_lable_xloc],p34_label_yloc,style=label.style_labeldown,text="4 bars same direction", color=color.orange) // label.delete(label_34[1]) //Percent 5th bar has same direction pred5=(red5/red4)*100 pblue5=(blue5/blue4)*100 //4->5 p45_blue_xloc=8 p45_red_xloc=10 p45_lable_xloc=round((p45_blue_xloc+p45_red_xloc)/2) p45_label_yloc=1.0*100 blue4_100=100 red4_100=100 plot(blue4_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p45_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(red4_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p45_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(pblue5, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p45_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=40, show_last=1) plot(pred5, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p45_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=40, show_last=1) // label_pred_45=label.new(bar_index[p45_red_xloc],pred5,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pred5,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pred_45[1]) // //label_4dn=label.new(bar_index[p45_red_xloc],red4,style=label.style_none,text="4 bars downward: "+tostring(red4)) // //label.delete(label_4dn[1]) // label_pblue_45=label.new(bar_index[p45_blue_xloc],pblue5,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pblue5,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pblue_45[1]) // //label_4up=label.new(bar_index[p45_blue_xloc],blue4,style=label.style_none,text="4 bars upward: "+tostring(blue4)) // //label.delete(label_4up[1]) // label_45=label.new(bar_index[p45_lable_xloc],p45_label_yloc,style=label.style_labeldown,text="5 bars same direction", color=color.orange) // label.delete(label_45[1]) //Percent 6th bar has same direction pred6=(red6/red5)*100 pblue6=(blue6/blue5)*100 //5->6 p56_blue_xloc=12 p56_red_xloc=14 p56_lable_xloc=round((p56_blue_xloc+p56_red_xloc)/2) p56_label_yloc=1.0*100 blue5_100=100 red5_100=100 plot(blue5_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p56_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(red5_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p56_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(pblue6, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p56_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=40, show_last=1) plot(pred6, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p56_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=40, show_last=1) // label_pred_56=label.new(bar_index[p56_red_xloc],pred6,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pred6,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pred_56[1]) // //label_5dn=label.new(bar_index[p56_red_xloc],red5,style=label.style_none,text="5 bars downward: "+tostring(red5)) // //label.delete(label_5dn[1]) // label_pblue_56=label.new(bar_index[p56_blue_xloc],pblue6,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pblue6,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pblue_56[1]) // //label_5up=label.new(bar_index[p56_blue_xloc],blue5,style=label.style_none,text="5 bars upward: "+tostring(blue5)) // //label.delete(label_5up[1]) // label_56=label.new(bar_index[p56_lable_xloc],p56_label_yloc,style=label.style_labeldown,text="6 bars same direction", color=color.orange) // label.delete(label_56[1]) //Percent 7th bar has same direction pred7=(red7/red6)*100 pblue7=(blue7/blue6)*100 //6->7 p67_blue_xloc=16 p67_red_xloc=18 p67_lable_xloc=round((p67_blue_xloc+p67_red_xloc)/2) p67_label_yloc=1.0*100 blue6_100=100 red6_100=100 plot(blue6_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p67_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(red6_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p67_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(pblue7, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p67_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=40, show_last=1) plot(pred7, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p67_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=40, show_last=1) // label_pred_67=label.new(bar_index[p67_red_xloc],pred7,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pred7,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pred_67[1]) // //label_6dn=label.new(bar_index[p67_red_xloc],red6,style=label.style_none,text="6 bars downward: "+tostring(red6)) // //label.delete(label_6dn[1]) // label_pblue_67=label.new(bar_index[p67_blue_xloc],pblue7,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pblue7,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pblue_67[1]) // //label_6up=label.new(bar_index[p67_blue_xloc],blue6,style=label.style_none,text="6 bars upward: "+tostring(blue6)) // //label.delete(label_6up[1]) // label_67=label.new(bar_index[p67_lable_xloc],p67_label_yloc,style=label.style_labeldown,text="7 bars same direction", color=color.orange) // label.delete(label_67[1]) //Plot Time Label time_label_yloc=1.4*100 time_lable_xloc=round((p67_red_xloc+p23_blue_xloc)/2) time_label_text="Bar's Direction Info From: "+tostring(FromDay)+"/"+tostring(FromMonth)+"/"+tostring(FromYear)+" To: "+tostring(ToDay)+"/"+tostring(ToMonth)+"/"+tostring(ToYear) // label_time=label.new(bar_index[time_lable_xloc],time_label_yloc,style=label.style_none,text=time_label_text, color=color.aqua) // label.delete(label_time[1]) //Signal //Put signal x1= pblue3<50?blue2[0]>blue2[1] and blue3[0]==blue3[1]:false x2= pblue4<50?blue3[0]>blue3[1] and blue4[0]==blue4[1]:false x3= pblue5<50?blue4[0]>blue4[1] and blue5[0]==blue5[1]:false x4= pblue6<50?blue5[0]>blue5[1] and blue6[0]==blue6[1]:false x5= pblue7<50?blue6[0]>blue6[1] and blue7[0]==blue7[1]:false //Call signal y1= pred3<50?red2[0]>red2[1] and red3[0]==red3[1]:false y2= pred4<50?red3[0]>red3[1] and red4[0]==red4[1]:false y3= pred5<50?red4[0]>red4[1] and red5[0]==red5[1]:false y4= pred6<50?red5[0]>red5[1] and red6[0]==red6[1]:false y5= pred7<50?red6[0]>red6[1] and red7[0]==red7[1]:false //Function xTech= set1?x1:false or set2?x2:false or set3?x3:false or set4?x4:false or set5?x5:false yTech= set1?y1:false or set2?y2:false or set3?y3:false or set4?y4:false or set5?y5:false //Plot Analyzing Signals hline1=hline(-100) hline2=hline(-1.6*100) hline0=hline(0) sigtext=xTech?"Put signal":yTech?"Call signal":"Analyzing Signals - Bar's Time left:"+tostring(minutesLeft)+":"+tostring(secondsLeft) sig_col=xTech?color.new(color.red,0):yTech?color.new(color.blue,0):color.new(color.navy,0) // label_sig_text = label.new(bar_index[0], -1.5*100, text=sigtext, style=label.style_none, textcolor=sig_col, size=size.large) // label.delete(label_sig_text[1]) //plot Signal putcol = xTech? color.red : na callcol = yTech? color.blue : na PutSignal= xTech and window1() and t0_DvM?-100:na CallSignal= yTech and window1() and t0_DvM?-100:na plot(PutSignal, title='Put Signal', style=plot.style_columns, color=color.red, offset=1, transp=0) plot(CallSignal, title='Call Signal', style=plot.style_columns, color=color.blue, offset=1, transp=0) plotshape(PutSignal, title='Put', text="Put", style=shape.labeldown, location=location.bottom, color=color.orange, textcolor=color.black, offset=1, transp=0) plotshape(CallSignal, title='Call', text="Call", style=shape.labelup, location=location.bottom, color=color.orange, textcolor=color.black, offset=1, transp=0) //Backtesting strategy.entry("Call", strategy.long, when=yTech and window1() and t0_DvM) strategy.entry("Put", strategy.short, when=xTech and window1() and t0_DvM) strategy.close_all(when=barstate.isnew) //EOF