A estratégia Multi-Bar Direction identifica os sinais de reversão de tendência, calculando a probabilidade de várias barras se moverem na mesma direção.
A estratégia primeiro define o horário de início e fim para a extração de dados históricos. As horas de negociação são configuradas para identificar velas qualificadas. Ele calcula a probabilidade de ascensões ou descidas consecutivas dentro de 2 a 7 velas. Os sinais de negociação são gerados quando a relação de ascensão ou descida excede um limiar.
Por exemplo, se a probabilidade de tendência de baixa em 3 velas for inferior a 50%, as 3 velas atuais atendem à condição e um sinal de compra é gerado.
A lógica específica é a seguinte:
Definir um intervalo de tempo de backtest, incluindo data de início, data de fim, horário de negociação.
Conte o número de subidas ou descidas da mesma direção dentro de 2 a 7 candelabros.
Calcule a probabilidade de continuação para cima ou para baixo entre candelabros adjacentes.
Se a probabilidade for inferior a 50%, os candelabros correntes correspondem ao padrão de reversão.
Gerar sinais de compra ou venda durante as horas de negociação.
Testes para validar a estratégia.
Evite sinais falsos considerando várias probabilidades de candelabros.
Contagem de barras personalizável para identificar sinais de reversão em diferentes prazos.
Horários de negociação claros evitam sinais impróprios.
Display de estatísticas intuitivas para avaliação do desempenho.
Muitos parâmetros otimizáveis adequados para diferentes mercados.
A contagem de barras não pode determinar completamente os pontos de reversão da tendência.
A longa duração das estatísticas pode perder oportunidades de negociação a curto prazo.
O limiar estático é afectado pela volatilidade do mercado, sendo necessário um ajustamento dinâmico.
A selecção do período de ensaio posterior pode causar sobreajuste.
Possíveis soluções:
Otimize a contagem de barras para diferentes prazos.
Incorporar outros indicadores.
Adotar limiares dinâmicos com base na volatilidade do mercado.
Expandir o período de backtest e executar múltiplos backtests.
A estratégia pode ser otimizada nos seguintes aspectos:
Otimizar a contagem de barras de 2 a 10 e selecionar o parâmetro ideal.
Prazo de reversão do ensaio de 40% para 60% tendo em conta as alterações do mercado.
Adicionar stop loss após a geração do sinal para limitar o risco.
Incorporar outros indicadores como RSI para validar sinais.
Adicione mais produtos como futuros e forex para testes de parâmetros.
Ajuste incremental de parâmetros para encontrar combinações ideais.
Aplicar modelos de aprendizagem de máquina para encontrar parâmetros ideais automaticamente.
A estratégia Multi-Bar Direction identifica potenciais sinais de reversão por meio da análise estatística das probabilidades do candelabro. Mas o desempenho depende do ajuste de parâmetros com base em otimizações suficientes. Além disso, os sinais de reversão têm riscos de julgamento errado e precisam de validação.
/*backtest start: 2023-10-16 00:00:00 end: 2023-10-17 00:00:00 period: 5m basePeriod: 1m exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}] */ // BO - Bar's direction Signal - Backtesting //anch.v43 // © inno14 //@version=4 strategy("BO - Bar's direction Signal - Backtesting", pyramiding=15) // === INPUT PERIOD OF TIME === Date = input(true, title = "=== Periods Counting ===") FromDay = input(defval = 1, title = "From Day", minval = 1, maxval = 31) FromMonth = input(defval = 1, title = "From Month", minval = 1, maxval = 12) FromYear = input(defval = 2020, title = "From Year", minval = 2017) ToDay = input(defval = 1, title = "To Day", minval = 1, maxval = 31) ToMonth = input(defval = 1, title = "To Month", minval = 1, maxval = 12) ToYear = input(defval = 9999, title = "To Year", minval = 2017) // === DATE RANGE === start = timestamp(FromYear, FromMonth, FromDay, 00, 00) // backtest start window finish = timestamp(ToYear, ToMonth, ToDay, 23, 59) // backtest finish window window() => time >= start and time <= finish ? true : false // create function "within window of time" // === Trading Time === CTimeDvM = input(true, title = "=== Trading Time ===") Time_zone = input(7,title="Time Zone") FromHourDvM = input(defval = 05, title = "From Hour", minval = 00, maxval = 23) FromMinuteDvM = input(defval = 00, title = "From Minute", minval = 00, maxval = 59) ToHourDvM = input(defval = 04, title = "To Hour", minval = 00, maxval = 23) ToMinuteDvM = input(defval = 59, title = "To Minute", minval = 00, maxval = 59) GMT_FHDvM=FromHourDvM<Time_zone?FromHourDvM-Time_zone+24:FromHourDvM-Time_zone GMT_THDvM=ToHourDvM<Time_zone?ToHourDvM-Time_zone+24:ToHourDvM-Time_zone fhDvM= (GMT_FHDvM<10?"0"+tostring(GMT_FHDvM):tostring(GMT_FHDvM)) fmDvM= (FromMinuteDvM<10?"0"+tostring(FromMinuteDvM):tostring(FromMinuteDvM)) thDvM= (GMT_THDvM<10?"0"+tostring(GMT_THDvM):tostring(GMT_THDvM)) tmDvM= (ToMinuteDvM<10?"0"+tostring(ToMinuteDvM):tostring(ToMinuteDvM)) WorkingHourDvM = fhDvM+fmDvM+"-"+thDvM+tmDvM t0_DvM = time(timeframe.period, WorkingHourDvM) htrtime = input(true,title="Highlight Tradingtime") bgcolor(htrtime? t0_DvM? color.gray : na:na, title="Trading Time", transp=90) // === Date Backtesting === Date1 = input(true, title = "=== Date Backtesting ===") FromDay1 = input(defval = 1, title = "From Day", minval = 1, maxval = 31) FromMonth1 = input(defval = 1, title = "From Month", minval = 1, maxval = 12) FromYear1 = input(defval = 2020, title = "From Year", minval = 2017) ToDay1 = input(defval = 1, title = "To Day", minval = 1, maxval = 31) ToMonth1 = input(defval = 1, title = "To Month", minval = 1, maxval = 12) ToYear1 = input(defval = 9999, title = "To Year", minval = 2017) // === DATE RANGE === start1 = timestamp(FromYear1, FromMonth1, FromDay1, 00, 00) // backtest start window finish1 = timestamp(ToYear1, ToMonth1, ToDay1, 23, 59) // backtest finish window window1() => time >= start1 and time <= finish1 ? true : false // create function "within window of time" // === Setup === Setup = input(true, title = "=== Setup Options ===") set1 = input(true, title = "Reversal after 2 bars same direction") set2 = input(true, title = "Reversal after 3 bars same direction") set3 = input(true, title = "Reversal after 4 bars same direction") set4 = input(true, title = "Reversal after 5 bars same direction") set5 = input(true, title = "Reversal after 6 bars same direction") // Calculate hours, minutes, and seconds till close timeLeft = barstate.isrealtime ? (time_close - timenow) / 1000 : na minutesLeft = floor((timeLeft % 3600) / 60) secondsLeft = timeLeft % 60 // truncate() truncates a given number // to a certain number of decimals truncate(number, decimals) => factor = pow(10, decimals) int(number * factor) / factor //count 2 redv2=window()?1:0 bluev2=window()?1:0 mchange2 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and t0_DvM?-1:0 pchange2 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and t0_DvM?1:0 blue2 = cum(pchange2 > 0 ? bluev2 : 0 * bluev2) red2 = cum(mchange2 < 0 ? redv2 : 0 * redv2) //count 3 redv3=window()?1:0 bluev3=window()?1:0 mchange3 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and close[2]<open[2] and t0_DvM?-1:0 pchange3 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and close[2]>open[2] and t0_DvM?1:0 blue3 = cum(pchange3 > 0 ? bluev3 : 0 * bluev3) red3 = cum(mchange3 < 0 ? redv3 : 0 * redv3) //count 4 redv4=window()?1:0 bluev4=window()?1:0 mchange4 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and close[2]<open[2] and close[3]<open[3] and t0_DvM?-1:0 pchange4 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and close[2]>open[2] and close[3]>open[3] and t0_DvM?1:0 blue4 = cum(pchange4 > 0 ? bluev4 : 0 * bluev4) red4 = cum(mchange4 < 0 ? redv4 : 0 * redv4) //count 5 redv5=window()?1:0 bluev5=window()?1:0 mchange5 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and close[2]<open[2] and close[3]<open[3] and close[4]<open[4] and t0_DvM?-1:0 pchange5 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and close[2]>open[2] and close[3]>open[3] and close[4]>open[4] and t0_DvM?1:0 blue5 = cum(pchange5 > 0 ? bluev5 : 0 * bluev5) red5 = cum(mchange5 < 0 ? redv5 : 0 * redv5) //count 6 redv6=window()?1:0 bluev6=window()?1:0 mchange6 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and close[2]<open[2] and close[3]<open[3] and close[4]<open[4] and close[5]<open[5] and t0_DvM?-1:0 pchange6 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and close[2]>open[2] and close[3]>open[3] and close[4]>open[4] and close[5]>open[5] and t0_DvM?1:0 blue6 = cum(pchange6 > 0 ? bluev6 : 0 * bluev6) red6 = cum(mchange6 < 0 ? redv6 : 0 * redv6) //count 7 redv7=window()?1:0 bluev7=window()?1:0 mchange7 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and close[2]<open[2] and close[3]<open[3] and close[4]<open[4] and close[5]<open[5] and close[6]<open[6] and t0_DvM?-1:0 pchange7 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and close[2]>open[2] and close[3]>open[3] and close[4]>open[4] and close[5]>open[5] and close[6]>open[6] and t0_DvM?1:0 blue7 = cum(pchange7 > 0 ? bluev7 : 0 * bluev7) red7 = cum(mchange7 < 0 ? redv7 : 0 * redv7) //Percent 3rd bar has same direction pred3=(red3/red2)*100 pblue3=(blue3/blue2)*100 //2->3 p23_blue_xloc=0 p23_red_xloc=2 p23_lable_xloc=round((p23_blue_xloc+p23_red_xloc)/2) p23_label_yloc=1.0*100 blue2_100=100 red2_100=100 plot(blue2_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=p23_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(red2_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p23_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(pblue3, style=plot.style_columns, offset=p23_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=40, show_last=1) plot(pred3, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p23_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=40, show_last=1) // label_pred_23=label.new(bar_index[p23_red_xloc],pred3,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pred3,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pred_23[1]) //label_2dn=label.new(bar_index[p23_red_xloc],red2,style=label.style_none,text="2 bars downward: "+tostring(red2)) //label.delete(label_2dn[1]) // label_pblue_23=label.new(bar_index[p23_blue_xloc],pblue3,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pblue3,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pblue_23[1]) //label_2up=label.new(bar_index[p23_blue_xloc],blue2,style=label.style_none,text="2 bars upward: "+tostring(blue2)) //label.delete(label_2up[1]) // label_23=label.new(bar_index[p23_lable_xloc],p23_label_yloc,style=label.style_labeldown,text="3 bars same direction", color=color.orange) // label.delete(label_23[1]) //Percent 4th bar has same direction pred4=(red4/red3)*100 pblue4=(blue4/blue3)*100 //3->4 p34_blue_xloc=4 p34_red_xloc=6 p34_lable_xloc=round((p34_blue_xloc+p34_red_xloc)/2) p34_label_yloc=1.0*100 blue3_100=100 red3_100=100 plot(blue3_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p34_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(red3_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p34_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(pblue4, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p34_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=40, show_last=1) plot(pred4, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p34_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=40, show_last=1) // label_pred_34=label.new(bar_index[p34_red_xloc],pred4,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pred4,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pred_34[1]) // //label_3dn=label.new(bar_index[p34_red_xloc],red3,style=label.style_none,text="3 bars downward: "+tostring(red3)) // //label.delete(label_3dn[1]) // label_pblue_34=label.new(bar_index[p34_blue_xloc],pblue4,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pblue4,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pblue_34[1]) // //label_3up=label.new(bar_index[p34_blue_xloc],blue3,style=label.style_none,text="3 bars upward: "+tostring(blue3)) // //label.delete(label_3up[1]) // label_34=label.new(bar_index[p34_lable_xloc],p34_label_yloc,style=label.style_labeldown,text="4 bars same direction", color=color.orange) // label.delete(label_34[1]) //Percent 5th bar has same direction pred5=(red5/red4)*100 pblue5=(blue5/blue4)*100 //4->5 p45_blue_xloc=8 p45_red_xloc=10 p45_lable_xloc=round((p45_blue_xloc+p45_red_xloc)/2) p45_label_yloc=1.0*100 blue4_100=100 red4_100=100 plot(blue4_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p45_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(red4_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p45_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(pblue5, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p45_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=40, show_last=1) plot(pred5, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p45_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=40, show_last=1) // label_pred_45=label.new(bar_index[p45_red_xloc],pred5,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pred5,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pred_45[1]) // //label_4dn=label.new(bar_index[p45_red_xloc],red4,style=label.style_none,text="4 bars downward: "+tostring(red4)) // //label.delete(label_4dn[1]) // label_pblue_45=label.new(bar_index[p45_blue_xloc],pblue5,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pblue5,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pblue_45[1]) // //label_4up=label.new(bar_index[p45_blue_xloc],blue4,style=label.style_none,text="4 bars upward: "+tostring(blue4)) // //label.delete(label_4up[1]) // label_45=label.new(bar_index[p45_lable_xloc],p45_label_yloc,style=label.style_labeldown,text="5 bars same direction", color=color.orange) // label.delete(label_45[1]) //Percent 6th bar has same direction pred6=(red6/red5)*100 pblue6=(blue6/blue5)*100 //5->6 p56_blue_xloc=12 p56_red_xloc=14 p56_lable_xloc=round((p56_blue_xloc+p56_red_xloc)/2) p56_label_yloc=1.0*100 blue5_100=100 red5_100=100 plot(blue5_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p56_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(red5_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p56_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(pblue6, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p56_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=40, show_last=1) plot(pred6, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p56_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=40, show_last=1) // label_pred_56=label.new(bar_index[p56_red_xloc],pred6,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pred6,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pred_56[1]) // //label_5dn=label.new(bar_index[p56_red_xloc],red5,style=label.style_none,text="5 bars downward: "+tostring(red5)) // //label.delete(label_5dn[1]) // label_pblue_56=label.new(bar_index[p56_blue_xloc],pblue6,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pblue6,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pblue_56[1]) // //label_5up=label.new(bar_index[p56_blue_xloc],blue5,style=label.style_none,text="5 bars upward: "+tostring(blue5)) // //label.delete(label_5up[1]) // label_56=label.new(bar_index[p56_lable_xloc],p56_label_yloc,style=label.style_labeldown,text="6 bars same direction", color=color.orange) // label.delete(label_56[1]) //Percent 7th bar has same direction pred7=(red7/red6)*100 pblue7=(blue7/blue6)*100 //6->7 p67_blue_xloc=16 p67_red_xloc=18 p67_lable_xloc=round((p67_blue_xloc+p67_red_xloc)/2) p67_label_yloc=1.0*100 blue6_100=100 red6_100=100 plot(blue6_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p67_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(red6_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p67_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=60, show_last=1) plot(pblue7, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p67_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=40, show_last=1) plot(pred7, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p67_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=40, show_last=1) // label_pred_67=label.new(bar_index[p67_red_xloc],pred7,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pred7,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pred_67[1]) // //label_6dn=label.new(bar_index[p67_red_xloc],red6,style=label.style_none,text="6 bars downward: "+tostring(red6)) // //label.delete(label_6dn[1]) // label_pblue_67=label.new(bar_index[p67_blue_xloc],pblue7,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pblue7,2))+"%") // label.delete(label_pblue_67[1]) // //label_6up=label.new(bar_index[p67_blue_xloc],blue6,style=label.style_none,text="6 bars upward: "+tostring(blue6)) // //label.delete(label_6up[1]) // label_67=label.new(bar_index[p67_lable_xloc],p67_label_yloc,style=label.style_labeldown,text="7 bars same direction", color=color.orange) // label.delete(label_67[1]) //Plot Time Label time_label_yloc=1.4*100 time_lable_xloc=round((p67_red_xloc+p23_blue_xloc)/2) time_label_text="Bar's Direction Info From: "+tostring(FromDay)+"/"+tostring(FromMonth)+"/"+tostring(FromYear)+" To: "+tostring(ToDay)+"/"+tostring(ToMonth)+"/"+tostring(ToYear) // label_time=label.new(bar_index[time_lable_xloc],time_label_yloc,style=label.style_none,text=time_label_text, color=color.aqua) // label.delete(label_time[1]) //Signal //Put signal x1= pblue3<50?blue2[0]>blue2[1] and blue3[0]==blue3[1]:false x2= pblue4<50?blue3[0]>blue3[1] and blue4[0]==blue4[1]:false x3= pblue5<50?blue4[0]>blue4[1] and blue5[0]==blue5[1]:false x4= pblue6<50?blue5[0]>blue5[1] and blue6[0]==blue6[1]:false x5= pblue7<50?blue6[0]>blue6[1] and blue7[0]==blue7[1]:false //Call signal y1= pred3<50?red2[0]>red2[1] and red3[0]==red3[1]:false y2= pred4<50?red3[0]>red3[1] and red4[0]==red4[1]:false y3= pred5<50?red4[0]>red4[1] and red5[0]==red5[1]:false y4= pred6<50?red5[0]>red5[1] and red6[0]==red6[1]:false y5= pred7<50?red6[0]>red6[1] and red7[0]==red7[1]:false //Function xTech= set1?x1:false or set2?x2:false or set3?x3:false or set4?x4:false or set5?x5:false yTech= set1?y1:false or set2?y2:false or set3?y3:false or set4?y4:false or set5?y5:false //Plot Analyzing Signals hline1=hline(-100) hline2=hline(-1.6*100) hline0=hline(0) sigtext=xTech?"Put signal":yTech?"Call signal":"Analyzing Signals - Bar's Time left:"+tostring(minutesLeft)+":"+tostring(secondsLeft) sig_col=xTech?color.new(color.red,0):yTech?color.new(color.blue,0):color.new(color.navy,0) // label_sig_text = label.new(bar_index[0], -1.5*100, text=sigtext, style=label.style_none, textcolor=sig_col, size=size.large) // label.delete(label_sig_text[1]) //plot Signal putcol = xTech? color.red : na callcol = yTech? color.blue : na PutSignal= xTech and window1() and t0_DvM?-100:na CallSignal= yTech and window1() and t0_DvM?-100:na plot(PutSignal, title='Put Signal', style=plot.style_columns, color=color.red, offset=1, transp=0) plot(CallSignal, title='Call Signal', style=plot.style_columns, color=color.blue, offset=1, transp=0) plotshape(PutSignal, title='Put', text="Put", style=shape.labeldown, location=location.bottom, color=color.orange, textcolor=color.black, offset=1, transp=0) plotshape(CallSignal, title='Call', text="Call", style=shape.labelup, location=location.bottom, color=color.orange, textcolor=color.black, offset=1, transp=0) //Backtesting strategy.entry("Call", strategy.long, when=yTech and window1() and t0_DvM) strategy.entry("Put", strategy.short, when=xTech and window1() and t0_DvM) strategy.close_all(when=barstate.isnew) //EOF