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Estratégia de direção de várias barras

Autora:ChaoZhang, Data: 2023-10-18 12:20:59
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Resumo

A estratégia Multi-Bar Direction identifica os sinais de reversão de tendência, calculando a probabilidade de várias barras se moverem na mesma direção.

Estratégia lógica

A estratégia primeiro define o horário de início e fim para a extração de dados históricos. As horas de negociação são configuradas para identificar velas qualificadas. Ele calcula a probabilidade de ascensões ou descidas consecutivas dentro de 2 a 7 velas. Os sinais de negociação são gerados quando a relação de ascensão ou descida excede um limiar.

Por exemplo, se a probabilidade de tendência de baixa em 3 velas for inferior a 50%, as 3 velas atuais atendem à condição e um sinal de compra é gerado.

A lógica específica é a seguinte:

  1. Definir um intervalo de tempo de backtest, incluindo data de início, data de fim, horário de negociação.

  2. Conte o número de subidas ou descidas da mesma direção dentro de 2 a 7 candelabros.

  3. Calcule a probabilidade de continuação para cima ou para baixo entre candelabros adjacentes.

  4. Se a probabilidade for inferior a 50%, os candelabros correntes correspondem ao padrão de reversão.

  5. Gerar sinais de compra ou venda durante as horas de negociação.

  6. Testes para validar a estratégia.

Vantagens

  • Evite sinais falsos considerando várias probabilidades de candelabros.

  • Contagem de barras personalizável para identificar sinais de reversão em diferentes prazos.

  • Horários de negociação claros evitam sinais impróprios.

  • Display de estatísticas intuitivas para avaliação do desempenho.

  • Muitos parâmetros otimizáveis adequados para diferentes mercados.

Riscos

  • A contagem de barras não pode determinar completamente os pontos de reversão da tendência.

  • A longa duração das estatísticas pode perder oportunidades de negociação a curto prazo.

  • O limiar estático é afectado pela volatilidade do mercado, sendo necessário um ajustamento dinâmico.

  • A selecção do período de ensaio posterior pode causar sobreajuste.

Possíveis soluções:

  1. Otimize a contagem de barras para diferentes prazos.

  2. Incorporar outros indicadores.

  3. Adotar limiares dinâmicos com base na volatilidade do mercado.

  4. Expandir o período de backtest e executar múltiplos backtests.

Orientações de otimização

A estratégia pode ser otimizada nos seguintes aspectos:

  1. Otimizar a contagem de barras de 2 a 10 e selecionar o parâmetro ideal.

  2. Prazo de reversão do ensaio de 40% para 60% tendo em conta as alterações do mercado.

  3. Adicionar stop loss após a geração do sinal para limitar o risco.

  4. Incorporar outros indicadores como RSI para validar sinais.

  5. Adicione mais produtos como futuros e forex para testes de parâmetros.

  6. Ajuste incremental de parâmetros para encontrar combinações ideais.

  7. Aplicar modelos de aprendizagem de máquina para encontrar parâmetros ideais automaticamente.

Conclusão

A estratégia Multi-Bar Direction identifica potenciais sinais de reversão por meio da análise estatística das probabilidades do candelabro. Mas o desempenho depende do ajuste de parâmetros com base em otimizações suficientes. Além disso, os sinais de reversão têm riscos de julgamento errado e precisam de validação.


/*backtest
start: 2023-10-16 00:00:00
end: 2023-10-17 00:00:00
period: 5m
basePeriod: 1m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

// BO - Bar's direction Signal - Backtesting
//anch.v43
// © inno14
//@version=4

strategy("BO - Bar's direction Signal - Backtesting", pyramiding=15)
// === INPUT PERIOD OF TIME ===
Date   = input(true, title = "=== Periods Counting ===")
FromDay   = input(defval = 1, title = "From Day", minval = 1, maxval = 31)
FromMonth = input(defval = 1, title = "From Month", minval = 1, maxval = 12)
FromYear  = input(defval = 2020, title = "From Year", minval = 2017)

ToDay     = input(defval = 1, title = "To Day", minval = 1, maxval = 31)
ToMonth   = input(defval = 1, title = "To Month", minval = 1, maxval = 12)
ToYear    = input(defval = 9999, title = "To Year", minval = 2017)

// === DATE RANGE ===
start     = timestamp(FromYear, FromMonth, FromDay, 00, 00)  // backtest start window
finish    = timestamp(ToYear, ToMonth, ToDay, 23, 59)        // backtest finish window
window()  => time >= start and time <= finish ? true : false // create function "within window of time"

// === Trading Time ===
CTimeDvM   = input(true, title = "=== Trading Time ===")
Time_zone = input(7,title="Time Zone")
FromHourDvM   = input(defval = 05, title = "From Hour", minval = 00, maxval = 23)
FromMinuteDvM = input(defval = 00, title = "From Minute", minval = 00, maxval = 59)
ToHourDvM   = input(defval = 04, title = "To Hour", minval = 00, maxval = 23)
ToMinuteDvM = input(defval = 59, title = "To Minute", minval = 00, maxval = 59)

GMT_FHDvM=FromHourDvM<Time_zone?FromHourDvM-Time_zone+24:FromHourDvM-Time_zone
GMT_THDvM=ToHourDvM<Time_zone?ToHourDvM-Time_zone+24:ToHourDvM-Time_zone
fhDvM= (GMT_FHDvM<10?"0"+tostring(GMT_FHDvM):tostring(GMT_FHDvM))
fmDvM= (FromMinuteDvM<10?"0"+tostring(FromMinuteDvM):tostring(FromMinuteDvM))
thDvM= (GMT_THDvM<10?"0"+tostring(GMT_THDvM):tostring(GMT_THDvM))
tmDvM= (ToMinuteDvM<10?"0"+tostring(ToMinuteDvM):tostring(ToMinuteDvM))
WorkingHourDvM = fhDvM+fmDvM+"-"+thDvM+tmDvM
t0_DvM = time(timeframe.period, WorkingHourDvM)
htrtime = input(true,title="Highlight Tradingtime")
bgcolor(htrtime? t0_DvM? color.gray : na:na, title="Trading Time", transp=90)

// === Date Backtesting ===
Date1   = input(true, title = "=== Date Backtesting ===")
FromDay1   = input(defval = 1, title = "From Day", minval = 1, maxval = 31)
FromMonth1 = input(defval = 1, title = "From Month", minval = 1, maxval = 12)
FromYear1  = input(defval = 2020, title = "From Year", minval = 2017)

ToDay1     = input(defval = 1, title = "To Day", minval = 1, maxval = 31)
ToMonth1   = input(defval = 1, title = "To Month", minval = 1, maxval = 12)
ToYear1    = input(defval = 9999, title = "To Year", minval = 2017)

// === DATE RANGE ===
start1     = timestamp(FromYear1, FromMonth1, FromDay1, 00, 00)  // backtest start window
finish1    = timestamp(ToYear1, ToMonth1, ToDay1, 23, 59)        // backtest finish window
window1()  => time >= start1 and time <= finish1 ? true : false // create function "within window of time"

// === Setup ===
Setup   = input(true, title = "=== Setup Options ===")
set1 = input(true, title = "Reversal after 2 bars same direction")
set2 = input(true, title = "Reversal after 3 bars same direction")
set3 = input(true, title = "Reversal after 4 bars same direction")
set4 = input(true, title = "Reversal after 5 bars same direction")
set5 = input(true, title = "Reversal after 6 bars same direction")


// Calculate hours, minutes, and seconds till close
timeLeft = barstate.isrealtime ?
     (time_close - timenow) / 1000 :
     na

minutesLeft = floor((timeLeft % 3600) / 60)
secondsLeft = timeLeft % 60
// truncate() truncates a given number
// to a certain number of decimals
truncate(number, decimals) =>
    factor = pow(10, decimals)
    int(number * factor) / factor
//count 2
redv2=window()?1:0
bluev2=window()?1:0
mchange2 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and t0_DvM?-1:0
pchange2 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and t0_DvM?1:0
blue2 = cum(pchange2 > 0 ? bluev2 : 0 * bluev2)
red2 = cum(mchange2 < 0 ? redv2 : 0 * redv2)

//count 3
redv3=window()?1:0
bluev3=window()?1:0
mchange3 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and close[2]<open[2] and t0_DvM?-1:0
pchange3 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and close[2]>open[2] and t0_DvM?1:0
blue3 = cum(pchange3 > 0 ? bluev3 : 0 * bluev3)
red3 = cum(mchange3 < 0 ? redv3 : 0 * redv3)

//count 4
redv4=window()?1:0
bluev4=window()?1:0
mchange4 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and close[2]<open[2] and close[3]<open[3] and t0_DvM?-1:0
pchange4 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and close[2]>open[2] and close[3]>open[3] and t0_DvM?1:0
blue4 = cum(pchange4 > 0 ? bluev4 : 0 * bluev4)
red4 = cum(mchange4 < 0 ? redv4 : 0 * redv4)

//count 5
redv5=window()?1:0
bluev5=window()?1:0
mchange5 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and close[2]<open[2] and close[3]<open[3] and close[4]<open[4] and t0_DvM?-1:0
pchange5 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and close[2]>open[2] and close[3]>open[3] and close[4]>open[4] and t0_DvM?1:0
blue5 = cum(pchange5 > 0 ? bluev5 : 0 * bluev5)
red5 = cum(mchange5 < 0 ? redv5 : 0 * redv5)

//count 6
redv6=window()?1:0
bluev6=window()?1:0
mchange6 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and close[2]<open[2] and close[3]<open[3] and close[4]<open[4] and close[5]<open[5] and t0_DvM?-1:0
pchange6 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and close[2]>open[2] and close[3]>open[3] and close[4]>open[4] and close[5]>open[5] and t0_DvM?1:0
blue6 = cum(pchange6 > 0 ? bluev6 : 0 * bluev6)
red6 = cum(mchange6 < 0 ? redv6 : 0 * redv6)

//count 7
redv7=window()?1:0
bluev7=window()?1:0
mchange7 = close[0]<open[0] and close[1]<open[1] and close[2]<open[2] and close[3]<open[3] and close[4]<open[4] and close[5]<open[5] and close[6]<open[6] and t0_DvM?-1:0
pchange7 = close[0]>open[0] and close[1]>open[1] and close[2]>open[2] and close[3]>open[3] and close[4]>open[4] and close[5]>open[5] and close[6]>open[6] and t0_DvM?1:0
blue7 = cum(pchange7 > 0 ? bluev7 : 0 * bluev7)
red7 = cum(mchange7 < 0 ? redv7 : 0 * redv7)

//Percent 3rd bar has same direction
pred3=(red3/red2)*100
pblue3=(blue3/blue2)*100

//2->3
p23_blue_xloc=0
p23_red_xloc=2
p23_lable_xloc=round((p23_blue_xloc+p23_red_xloc)/2)
p23_label_yloc=1.0*100
blue2_100=100
red2_100=100

plot(blue2_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=p23_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=60, show_last=1)
plot(red2_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p23_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=60, show_last=1)
plot(pblue3, style=plot.style_columns, offset=p23_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=40, show_last=1)
plot(pred3, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p23_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=40, show_last=1)
// label_pred_23=label.new(bar_index[p23_red_xloc],pred3,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pred3,2))+"%")
// label.delete(label_pred_23[1])
//label_2dn=label.new(bar_index[p23_red_xloc],red2,style=label.style_none,text="2 bars downward: "+tostring(red2))
//label.delete(label_2dn[1])
// label_pblue_23=label.new(bar_index[p23_blue_xloc],pblue3,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pblue3,2))+"%")
// label.delete(label_pblue_23[1])
//label_2up=label.new(bar_index[p23_blue_xloc],blue2,style=label.style_none,text="2 bars upward: "+tostring(blue2))
//label.delete(label_2up[1])
// label_23=label.new(bar_index[p23_lable_xloc],p23_label_yloc,style=label.style_labeldown,text="3 bars same direction", color=color.orange)
// label.delete(label_23[1])

//Percent 4th bar has same direction
pred4=(red4/red3)*100
pblue4=(blue4/blue3)*100

//3->4
p34_blue_xloc=4
p34_red_xloc=6
p34_lable_xloc=round((p34_blue_xloc+p34_red_xloc)/2)
p34_label_yloc=1.0*100
blue3_100=100
red3_100=100

plot(blue3_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p34_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=60, show_last=1)
plot(red3_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p34_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=60, show_last=1)
plot(pblue4, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p34_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=40, show_last=1)
plot(pred4, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p34_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=40, show_last=1)
// label_pred_34=label.new(bar_index[p34_red_xloc],pred4,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pred4,2))+"%")
// label.delete(label_pred_34[1])
// //label_3dn=label.new(bar_index[p34_red_xloc],red3,style=label.style_none,text="3 bars downward: "+tostring(red3))
// //label.delete(label_3dn[1])
// label_pblue_34=label.new(bar_index[p34_blue_xloc],pblue4,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pblue4,2))+"%")
// label.delete(label_pblue_34[1])
// //label_3up=label.new(bar_index[p34_blue_xloc],blue3,style=label.style_none,text="3 bars upward: "+tostring(blue3))
// //label.delete(label_3up[1])
// label_34=label.new(bar_index[p34_lable_xloc],p34_label_yloc,style=label.style_labeldown,text="4 bars same direction", color=color.orange)
// label.delete(label_34[1])

//Percent 5th bar has same direction
pred5=(red5/red4)*100
pblue5=(blue5/blue4)*100

//4->5
p45_blue_xloc=8
p45_red_xloc=10
p45_lable_xloc=round((p45_blue_xloc+p45_red_xloc)/2)
p45_label_yloc=1.0*100
blue4_100=100
red4_100=100

plot(blue4_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p45_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=60, show_last=1)
plot(red4_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p45_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=60, show_last=1)
plot(pblue5, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p45_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=40, show_last=1)
plot(pred5, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p45_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=40, show_last=1)
// label_pred_45=label.new(bar_index[p45_red_xloc],pred5,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pred5,2))+"%")
// label.delete(label_pred_45[1])
// //label_4dn=label.new(bar_index[p45_red_xloc],red4,style=label.style_none,text="4 bars downward: "+tostring(red4))
// //label.delete(label_4dn[1])
// label_pblue_45=label.new(bar_index[p45_blue_xloc],pblue5,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pblue5,2))+"%")
// label.delete(label_pblue_45[1])
// //label_4up=label.new(bar_index[p45_blue_xloc],blue4,style=label.style_none,text="4 bars upward: "+tostring(blue4))
// //label.delete(label_4up[1])
// label_45=label.new(bar_index[p45_lable_xloc],p45_label_yloc,style=label.style_labeldown,text="5 bars same direction", color=color.orange)
// label.delete(label_45[1])

//Percent 6th bar has same direction
pred6=(red6/red5)*100
pblue6=(blue6/blue5)*100

//5->6
p56_blue_xloc=12
p56_red_xloc=14
p56_lable_xloc=round((p56_blue_xloc+p56_red_xloc)/2)
p56_label_yloc=1.0*100
blue5_100=100
red5_100=100

plot(blue5_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p56_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=60, show_last=1)
plot(red5_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p56_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=60, show_last=1)
plot(pblue6, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p56_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=40, show_last=1)
plot(pred6, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p56_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=40, show_last=1)
// label_pred_56=label.new(bar_index[p56_red_xloc],pred6,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pred6,2))+"%")
// label.delete(label_pred_56[1])
// //label_5dn=label.new(bar_index[p56_red_xloc],red5,style=label.style_none,text="5 bars downward: "+tostring(red5))
// //label.delete(label_5dn[1])
// label_pblue_56=label.new(bar_index[p56_blue_xloc],pblue6,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pblue6,2))+"%")
// label.delete(label_pblue_56[1])
// //label_5up=label.new(bar_index[p56_blue_xloc],blue5,style=label.style_none,text="5 bars upward: "+tostring(blue5))
// //label.delete(label_5up[1])
// label_56=label.new(bar_index[p56_lable_xloc],p56_label_yloc,style=label.style_labeldown,text="6 bars same direction", color=color.orange)
// label.delete(label_56[1])

//Percent 7th bar has same direction
pred7=(red7/red6)*100
pblue7=(blue7/blue6)*100

//6->7
p67_blue_xloc=16
p67_red_xloc=18
p67_lable_xloc=round((p67_blue_xloc+p67_red_xloc)/2)
p67_label_yloc=1.0*100
blue6_100=100
red6_100=100

plot(blue6_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p67_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=60, show_last=1)
plot(red6_100, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p67_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=60, show_last=1)
plot(pblue7, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p67_blue_xloc, color=color.blue, transp=40, show_last=1)
plot(pred7, style=plot.style_columns, offset=-p67_red_xloc, color=color.red, transp=40, show_last=1)
// label_pred_67=label.new(bar_index[p67_red_xloc],pred7,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pred7,2))+"%")
// label.delete(label_pred_67[1])
// //label_6dn=label.new(bar_index[p67_red_xloc],red6,style=label.style_none,text="6 bars downward: "+tostring(red6))
// //label.delete(label_6dn[1])
// label_pblue_67=label.new(bar_index[p67_blue_xloc],pblue7,style=label.style_none,text=tostring(truncate(pblue7,2))+"%")
// label.delete(label_pblue_67[1])
// //label_6up=label.new(bar_index[p67_blue_xloc],blue6,style=label.style_none,text="6 bars upward: "+tostring(blue6))
// //label.delete(label_6up[1])
// label_67=label.new(bar_index[p67_lable_xloc],p67_label_yloc,style=label.style_labeldown,text="7 bars same direction", color=color.orange)
// label.delete(label_67[1])

//Plot Time Label
time_label_yloc=1.4*100
time_lable_xloc=round((p67_red_xloc+p23_blue_xloc)/2)
time_label_text="Bar's Direction Info From: "+tostring(FromDay)+"/"+tostring(FromMonth)+"/"+tostring(FromYear)+" To: "+tostring(ToDay)+"/"+tostring(ToMonth)+"/"+tostring(ToYear)
// label_time=label.new(bar_index[time_lable_xloc],time_label_yloc,style=label.style_none,text=time_label_text, color=color.aqua)
// label.delete(label_time[1])

//Signal
//Put signal
x1=
       pblue3<50?blue2[0]>blue2[1] and blue3[0]==blue3[1]:false
x2=
       pblue4<50?blue3[0]>blue3[1] and blue4[0]==blue4[1]:false
x3=
       pblue5<50?blue4[0]>blue4[1] and blue5[0]==blue5[1]:false
x4=
       pblue6<50?blue5[0]>blue5[1] and blue6[0]==blue6[1]:false
x5=
       pblue7<50?blue6[0]>blue6[1] and blue7[0]==blue7[1]:false

//Call signal
y1=
       pred3<50?red2[0]>red2[1] and red3[0]==red3[1]:false
y2=
       pred4<50?red3[0]>red3[1] and red4[0]==red4[1]:false
y3=
       pred5<50?red4[0]>red4[1] and red5[0]==red5[1]:false
y4=
       pred6<50?red5[0]>red5[1] and red6[0]==red6[1]:false
y5=
       pred7<50?red6[0]>red6[1] and red7[0]==red7[1]:false

//Function
xTech=
       set1?x1:false
       or set2?x2:false
       or set3?x3:false
       or set4?x4:false
       or set5?x5:false
       

yTech=
       set1?y1:false
       or set2?y2:false
       or set3?y3:false
       or set4?y4:false
       or set5?y5:false
       

//Plot Analyzing Signals
hline1=hline(-100)
hline2=hline(-1.6*100)
hline0=hline(0)
sigtext=xTech?"Put signal":yTech?"Call signal":"Analyzing Signals - Bar's Time left:"+tostring(minutesLeft)+":"+tostring(secondsLeft)
sig_col=xTech?color.new(color.red,0):yTech?color.new(color.blue,0):color.new(color.navy,0)
// label_sig_text = label.new(bar_index[0], -1.5*100, text=sigtext, style=label.style_none, textcolor=sig_col, size=size.large)
// label.delete(label_sig_text[1])

//plot Signal

putcol = xTech? color.red : na
callcol = yTech? color.blue : na
PutSignal= xTech and window1() and t0_DvM?-100:na
CallSignal= yTech and window1() and t0_DvM?-100:na

plot(PutSignal, title='Put Signal', style=plot.style_columns, color=color.red, offset=1, transp=0)
plot(CallSignal, title='Call Signal', style=plot.style_columns, color=color.blue, offset=1, transp=0)
plotshape(PutSignal, title='Put', text="Put", style=shape.labeldown, location=location.bottom, color=color.orange, textcolor=color.black, offset=1, transp=0)
plotshape(CallSignal, title='Call', text="Call", style=shape.labelup, location=location.bottom, color=color.orange, textcolor=color.black, offset=1, transp=0)

//Backtesting
strategy.entry("Call", strategy.long, when=yTech and window1() and t0_DvM)
strategy.entry("Put", strategy.short, when=xTech and window1() and t0_DvM)
strategy.close_all(when=barstate.isnew)
//EOF

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