Artikel ini menjelaskan secara rinci strategi perdagangan kuantitatif jangka panjang menggunakan band volatilitas untuk mengidentifikasi pembalikan.
I. Logika Strategi
Indikator inti adalah rentang volatilitas, yang dihitung sebagai:
Menghitung band rata-rata bergerak tengah, atas dan bawah.
Sinyal beli dihasilkan ketika harga pecah melalui band bawah.
Sinyal jual dihasilkan ketika harga melewati band atas.
Keluar bisa pada sinyal jual atau pemutusan band atas.
Stop loss adalah persentase tetap.
Hal ini memungkinkan pembelian ke fase menurun, kemudian keluar melalui mengambil keuntungan atau berhenti untuk memanfaatkan pembalikan.
II. Keuntungan dari Strategi
Keuntungan terbesar adalah menggunakan band volatilitas untuk mengidentifikasi titik pembalikan, teknik analisis teknis yang matang.
Keuntungan lain adalah mekanisme stop loss untuk mengendalikan risiko per perdagangan.
Akhirnya, piramida juga membantu memfasilitasi keuntungan setelah pembalikan.
III. Potensi Risiko
Namun, ada beberapa masalah potensial:
Pertama, rata-rata bergerak memiliki lag dan dapat menyebabkan waktu masuk terbaik yang terlewatkan.
Kedua, tingkat profit taking dan stop loss membutuhkan optimasi yang cermat.
Akhirnya, jangka waktu penyimpanan yang panjang berarti bertahan beberapa penarikan.
IV. Ringkasan
Secara singkat, artikel ini telah menjelaskan strategi perdagangan kuantitatif jangka panjang menggunakan band volatilitas untuk memanfaatkan pembalikan. Hal ini dapat secara efektif mendeteksi peluang pembalikan untuk kepemilikan jangka panjang.
/*backtest start: 2023-09-07 00:00:00 end: 2023-09-12 04:00:00 period: 14m basePeriod: 1m exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}] */ // This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/ // © ediks123 //strategy logic has been borrowed from ceyhun and tweaked the settings for back testing //@version=4 //SPY 4 hrs settings 8, 13 , 3.33 , 0.9 on 4 hrs chart //QQQ above settings is good , but 13, 13 has less number of bars //QQQ 4 hrs settings 13, 13 , 3.33 , 0.9 on 4 hrs chart strategy(title="Volatility Bands Reversal Strategy", shorttitle="VolatilityBandReversal" , overlay=true, pyramiding=2, default_qty_type=strategy.percent_of_equity, default_qty_value=20, initial_capital=10000, currency=currency.USD) //default_qty_value=10, default_qty_type=strategy.fixed, av = input(8, title="Band Average") vp = input(13, title="Volatility Period") df = input(3.33,title="Deviation Factor",minval=0.1) lba = input(0.9,title="Lower Band Adjustment",minval=0.1) riskCapital = input(title="Risk % of capital", defval=10, minval=1) stopLoss=input(6,title="Stop Loss",minval=1) exitOn=input(title="Exit on", defval="touch_upperband", options=["Sell_Signal", "touch_upperband"]) src = hlc3 typical = src >= src[1] ? src - low[1] : src[1] - low deviation = sum( typical , vp )/ vp * df devHigh = ema(deviation, av) devLow = lba * devHigh medianAvg = ema(src, av) emaMediaAvg=ema(medianAvg, av) upperBandVal= emaMediaAvg + devHigh lowerbandVal= emaMediaAvg - devLow MidLineVal=sma(medianAvg, av) UpperBand = plot ( upperBandVal, color=#EE82EE, linewidth=2, title="UpperBand") LowerBand = plot ( lowerbandVal , color=#EE82EE, linewidth=2, title="LowerBand") MidLine = plot (MidLineVal, color=color.blue, linewidth=2, title="MidLine") buyLine = plot ( (lowerbandVal + MidLineVal )/2 , color=color.blue, title="BuyLine") up=ema(medianAvg, av) + devHigh down=ema(medianAvg, av) - devLow ema50=ema(hlc3,50) plot ( ema50, color=color.orange, linewidth=2, title="ema 50") //outer deviation //deviation1 = sum( typical , vp )/ vp * 4 //devHigh1 = ema(deviation, av) //devLow1 = lba * devHigh //medianAvg1 = ema(src, av) //UpperBand1 = plot (emaMediaAvg + devHigh1, color=color.red, linewidth=3, title="UpperBand1") //LowerBand1 = plot (emaMediaAvg - devLow1, color=color.red, linewidth=3, title="LowerBand1") // ///Entry Rules //1)First candle close below the Lower Band of the volatility Band //2)Second candle close above the lower band //3)Third Candle closes above previous candle Buy = close[2] < down[2] and close[1]>down[1] and close>close[1] //plotshape(Buy,color=color.blue,style=shape.arrowup,location=location.belowbar, text="Buy") //barcolor(close[2] < down[2] and close[1]>down[1] and close>close[1] ? color.blue :na ) //bgcolor(close[2] < down[2] and close[1]>down[1] and close>close[1] ? color.green :na ) ///Exit Rules //1)One can have a static stops initially followed by an trailing stop based on the risk the people are willing to take //2)One can exit with human based decisions or predefined target exits. Choice of deciding the stop loss and profit targets are left to the readers. Sell = close[2] > up[2] and close[1]<up[1] and close<close[1] //plotshape(Sell,color=color.red,style=shape.arrowup,text="Sell") barcolor(close[2] > up[2] and close[1]<up[1] and close<close[1] ? color.yellow :na ) bgcolor(close[2] > up[2] and close[1]<up[1] and close<close[1] ? color.red :na ) //Buyer = crossover(close,Buy) //Seller = crossunder(close,Sell) //alertcondition(Buyer, title="Buy Signal", message="Buy") //alertcondition(Seller, title="Sell Signal", message="Sell") //Entry-- //Echeck how many units can be purchased based on risk manage ment and stop loss qty1 = (strategy.equity * riskCapital / 100 ) / (close*stopLoss/100) //check if cash is sufficient to buy qty1 , if capital not available use the available capital only qty1:= (qty1 * close >= strategy.equity ) ? (strategy.equity / close) : qty1 strategy.entry(id="vbLE", long=true, qty=qty1, when=Buy) bgcolor(strategy.position_size>=1 ? color.blue : na) // stop loss exit stopLossVal = strategy.position_size>=1 ? strategy.position_avg_price * ( 1 - (stopLoss/100) ) : 0.00 //draw initil stop loss plot(strategy.position_size>=1 ? stopLossVal : na, color = color.purple , style=plot.style_linebr, linewidth = 2, title = "stop loss") //, trackprice=true) strategy.close(id="vbLE", comment="SL exit Loss is "+tostring(close - strategy.position_avg_price, "###.##") , when=abs(strategy.position_size)>=1 and close < stopLossVal ) //close on Sell_Signal strategy.close(id="vbLE", comment="Profit is : "+tostring(close - strategy.position_avg_price, "###.##") , when=strategy.position_size>=1 and exitOn=="Sell_Signal" and Sell) //close on touch_upperband strategy.close(id="vbLE", comment="Profit is : "+tostring(close - strategy.position_avg_price, "###.##") , when=strategy.position_size>=1 and exitOn=="touch_upperband" and (crossover(close, up) or crossover(high, up)))