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Strategi Kuantitatif Jangka Panjang Berdasarkan Pembalikan Band Volatilitas

Penulis:ChaoZhang, Tanggal: 2023-09-15 11:34:45
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Artikel ini menjelaskan secara rinci strategi perdagangan kuantitatif jangka panjang menggunakan band volatilitas untuk mengidentifikasi pembalikan.

I. Logika Strategi

Indikator inti adalah rentang volatilitas, yang dihitung sebagai:

  1. Menghitung band rata-rata bergerak tengah, atas dan bawah.

  2. Sinyal beli dihasilkan ketika harga pecah melalui band bawah.

  3. Sinyal jual dihasilkan ketika harga melewati band atas.

  4. Keluar bisa pada sinyal jual atau pemutusan band atas.

  5. Stop loss adalah persentase tetap.

Hal ini memungkinkan pembelian ke fase menurun, kemudian keluar melalui mengambil keuntungan atau berhenti untuk memanfaatkan pembalikan.

II. Keuntungan dari Strategi

Keuntungan terbesar adalah menggunakan band volatilitas untuk mengidentifikasi titik pembalikan, teknik analisis teknis yang matang.

Keuntungan lain adalah mekanisme stop loss untuk mengendalikan risiko per perdagangan.

Akhirnya, piramida juga membantu memfasilitasi keuntungan setelah pembalikan.

III. Potensi Risiko

Namun, ada beberapa masalah potensial:

Pertama, rata-rata bergerak memiliki lag dan dapat menyebabkan waktu masuk terbaik yang terlewatkan.

Kedua, tingkat profit taking dan stop loss membutuhkan optimasi yang cermat.

Akhirnya, jangka waktu penyimpanan yang panjang berarti bertahan beberapa penarikan.

IV. Ringkasan

Secara singkat, artikel ini telah menjelaskan strategi perdagangan kuantitatif jangka panjang menggunakan band volatilitas untuk memanfaatkan pembalikan. Hal ini dapat secara efektif mendeteksi peluang pembalikan untuk kepemilikan jangka panjang.


/*backtest
start: 2023-09-07 00:00:00
end: 2023-09-12 04:00:00
period: 14m
basePeriod: 1m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// © ediks123

//strategy logic  has been borrowed from ceyhun  and tweaked the settings for back testing

//@version=4


//SPY 4 hrs settings 8, 13 , 3.33 , 0.9  on 4 hrs chart
//QQQ above settings is good , but 13, 13 has less number of bars 
//QQQ 4 hrs settings 13, 13 , 3.33 , 0.9  on 4 hrs chart

strategy(title="Volatility Bands Reversal Strategy",  shorttitle="VolatilityBandReversal" , overlay=true, pyramiding=2,     default_qty_type=strategy.percent_of_equity,  default_qty_value=20, initial_capital=10000, currency=currency.USD)  //default_qty_value=10, default_qty_type=strategy.fixed,


av = input(8, title="Band Average")
vp = input(13, title="Volatility Period")
df = input(3.33,title="Deviation Factor",minval=0.1)
lba = input(0.9,title="Lower Band Adjustment",minval=0.1)

riskCapital = input(title="Risk % of capital", defval=10, minval=1)
stopLoss=input(6,title="Stop Loss",minval=1)

exitOn=input(title="Exit on", defval="touch_upperband", options=["Sell_Signal", "touch_upperband"])



src = hlc3
typical = src >= src[1] ? src - low[1] : src[1] - low
deviation = sum( typical , vp )/ vp * df
devHigh = ema(deviation, av)
devLow = lba * devHigh
medianAvg = ema(src, av)

emaMediaAvg=ema(medianAvg, av)

upperBandVal= emaMediaAvg + devHigh
lowerbandVal= emaMediaAvg - devLow
MidLineVal=sma(medianAvg, av)

UpperBand = plot ( upperBandVal, color=#EE82EE, linewidth=2, title="UpperBand")
LowerBand = plot ( lowerbandVal , color=#EE82EE, linewidth=2, title="LowerBand")
MidLine = plot (MidLineVal, color=color.blue, linewidth=2, title="MidLine")
buyLine = plot ( (lowerbandVal + MidLineVal )/2  , color=color.blue, title="BuyLine")

up=ema(medianAvg, av) + devHigh
down=ema(medianAvg, av) - devLow


ema50=ema(hlc3,50)
plot ( ema50, color=color.orange, linewidth=2, title="ema 50")

//outer deviation

//deviation1 = sum( typical , vp )/ vp * 4
//devHigh1 = ema(deviation, av)
//devLow1 = lba * devHigh
//medianAvg1 = ema(src, av)

//UpperBand1 = plot (emaMediaAvg + devHigh1, color=color.red, linewidth=3, title="UpperBand1")
//LowerBand1 = plot (emaMediaAvg - devLow1, color=color.red, linewidth=3, title="LowerBand1")
//



///Entry Rules
//1)First candle close below the Lower Band of the volatility Band
//2)Second candle close above the lower band
//3)Third Candle closes above previous candle
Buy = close[2] < down[2] and close[1]>down[1] and close>close[1]
//plotshape(Buy,color=color.blue,style=shape.arrowup,location=location.belowbar, text="Buy")
//barcolor(close[2] < down[2] and close[1]>down[1] and close>close[1] ? color.blue :na )
//bgcolor(close[2] < down[2] and close[1]>down[1] and close>close[1] ? color.green :na )

///Exit Rules
//1)One can have a static stops initially followed by an trailing stop based on the risk the people are willing to take
//2)One can exit with human based decisions or predefined target exits. Choice of deciding the stop loss and profit targets are left to the readers.
Sell = close[2] > up[2] and close[1]<up[1] and close<close[1]
//plotshape(Sell,color=color.red,style=shape.arrowup,text="Sell")
barcolor(close[2] > up[2] and close[1]<up[1] and close<close[1] ? color.yellow :na )
bgcolor(close[2] > up[2] and close[1]<up[1] and close<close[1] ? color.red :na )

//Buyer = crossover(close,Buy)
//Seller = crossunder(close,Sell)

//alertcondition(Buyer, title="Buy Signal", message="Buy")
//alertcondition(Seller, title="Sell Signal", message="Sell")


//Entry--
//Echeck how many units can be purchased based on risk manage ment and stop loss
qty1 = (strategy.equity  * riskCapital / 100 ) /  (close*stopLoss/100)  

//check if cash is sufficient  to buy qty1  , if capital not available use the available capital only
qty1:= (qty1 * close >= strategy.equity ) ? (strategy.equity / close) : qty1

strategy.entry(id="vbLE", long=true, qty=qty1, when=Buy)

bgcolor(strategy.position_size>=1 ? color.blue : na)
// stop loss exit
stopLossVal = strategy.position_size>=1 ?  strategy.position_avg_price * ( 1 - (stopLoss/100) ) : 0.00
//draw initil stop loss
plot(strategy.position_size>=1 ? stopLossVal : na, color = color.purple , style=plot.style_linebr,  linewidth = 2, title = "stop loss") //, trackprice=true)


strategy.close(id="vbLE", comment="SL exit Loss is  "+tostring(close - strategy.position_avg_price,  "###.##") , when=abs(strategy.position_size)>=1 and close < stopLossVal )   




//close on Sell_Signal
strategy.close(id="vbLE", comment="Profit is : "+tostring(close - strategy.position_avg_price,  "###.##") , when=strategy.position_size>=1 and  exitOn=="Sell_Signal"  and Sell)

//close on touch_upperband
strategy.close(id="vbLE", comment="Profit is : "+tostring(close - strategy.position_avg_price,  "###.##") , when=strategy.position_size>=1 and  exitOn=="touch_upperband"  and (crossover(close, up) or crossover(high, up)))

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