La estrategia de tendencia de la tortuga calcula el máximo de 20 días, el mínimo de 20 días, el máximo de 55 días y el mínimo de 55 días, combinado con el indicador ATR para establecer el objetivo de stop loss y beneficio.
Después de entrar en el mercado, la estrategia utiliza los valores de ATR para establecer el stop loss y el objetivo de pirámide. Se detiene cuando las pérdidas alcanzan el nivel de stop loss y aumenta el tamaño de la posición cuando las ganancias alcanzan el objetivo de pirámide. Esto maximiza el potencial de ganancia en los mercados de tendencia mientras controla los riesgos de las operaciones individuales.
La mayor ventaja de la estrategia Turtle Trend radica en sus excelentes capacidades de control de riesgos. Las reglas de entrada y salida estandarizadas pueden controlar eficazmente las pérdidas de operaciones individuales. El mecanismo de salto evita quedar atrapado en condiciones adversas de mercado. La estrategia de stop loss estable también limita las pérdidas consecutivas.
Además, la estrategia Turtle Trend utiliza el indicador ATR para establecer dinámicamente el stop loss, lo que permite que la línea de stop loss se adapte automáticamente a los cambios en la volatilidad del mercado.
Por último, el mecanismo piramidal permite a la estrategia captar plenamente los beneficios en los mercados de tendencia, sentando las bases para un crecimiento constante del capital.
El principal riesgo de la estrategia de tendencia de tortuga es que no puede beneficiarse de los mercados de rango. Cuando el mercado fluctúa en un rango durante largos períodos, la stop loss puede desencadenarse con frecuencia resultando en pérdidas. Además, el mecanismo de salto puede llevar a señales insuficientes y, por lo tanto, perder oportunidades comerciales potenciales.
La estrategia de Turtle Trend puede optimizarse en los siguientes aspectos:
Ajustar la sensibilidad del mecanismo de salto mediante la combinación de indicadores de volatilidad para aumentar la frecuencia de negociación en mercados variados.
Añadir señales fundamentales como filtro para evitar ser golpeado por el stop loss debido a eventos esporádicos.
Optimizar la configuración de los parámetros ATR para que la línea de stop loss se adhiera más a la fluctuación real.
Combinar los indicadores de volumen para evitar la entrada de retroceso ineficaz después de una pérdida.
En resumen, Turtle Trend Strategy mejora la rentabilidad y las capacidades de control de riesgos de la estrategia original de Turtle Trading. Es una estrategia de algoritmo de bajo riesgo adecuada para rastrear los mercados de tendencia. Con una optimización adicional, puede convertirse en una parte importante de la construcción de una cartera rentable estable a largo plazo.
/*backtest start: 2024-01-29 00:00:00 end: 2024-02-28 00:00:00 period: 3h basePeriod: 15m exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}] */ //@version=5 strategy("TURTLE STRATEGY", precision=2, overlay=true, initial_capital=1000, commission_type=strategy.commission.percent, commission_value=0.18, slippage=3, pyramiding=5, close_entries_rule="ANY", margin_long=100, margin_short=100) //------------------------------TOOL TIPS--------------------------------// t1 = "Percentage of the account the trader is willing to lose. This percentage is used to define the position size based on previous gains or losses. Turtle traders default to 1%." t2 = "ATR Length" t3 = "ATR Multiplier to fix the Stop Loss" t4 = "Pyramiding : ATR Multiplier to set a profit target to increase position size" t5 = "System 1 enter long if there is a new high after this selected period of time" t6 = "System 2 enter long if there is a new high after this selected period of time" t7 = "Exit Long from system 1 if there is a new low after this selected period of time" t8 = "Exit Long from system 2 if there is a new low after this selected period of time" t9 = "System 1 enter short if there is a new low after this selected period of time" t10 = "System 2 enter short if there is a new low after this selected period of time" t11 = "Exit short from system 1 if there is a new high after this selected period of time" t12 = "Exit short from system 2 if there is a new high after this selected period of time" //----------------------------------------FUNCTIONS---------------------------------------// //@function Displays text passed to `txt` when called. debugLabel(txt, color) => label.new(bar_index, high, text=txt, color=color, style=label.style_label_lower_right, textcolor=color.black, size=size.small) //@function which looks if the close date of the current bar falls inside the date range inBacktestPeriod(start, end) => (time >= start) and (time <= end) //---------------------------------------USER INPUTS--------------------------------------// //Risk Management and turtle system input percentage_to_risk = input.float(1, "Risk % of capital", maxval=100, minval=0, group="Turtle Parameters", tooltip=t1) atr_period = input.int(20, "ATR period", minval=1, group="Turtle Parameters", tooltip=t2) stop_N_multiplier = input.float(1.5, "Stop ATR", minval=0.1, group="Turtle Parameters", tooltip=t3) pyramid_profit = input.float(0.5, "Pyramid Profit", minval=0.01, group="Turtle Parameters", tooltip=t4) S1_long = input.int(20, "S1 Long", minval=1, group="Turtle Parameters", tooltip=t5) S2_long = input.int(55, "S2 Long", minval=1, group="Turtle Parameters", tooltip=t6) S1_long_exit = input.int(10, "S1 Long Exit", minval=1, group="Turtle Parameters", tooltip=t7) S2_long_exit = input.int(20, "S2 Long Exit", minval=1, group="Turtle Parameters", tooltip=t8) S1_short = input.int(15, "S1 Short", minval=1, group="Turtle Parameters", tooltip=t9) S2_short = input.int(55, "S2 Short", minval=1, group="Turtle Parameters", tooltip=t10) S1_short_exit = input.int(7, "S1 Short Exit", minval=1, group="Turtle Parameters", tooltip=t11) S2_short_exit = input.int(20, "S2 Short Exit", minval=1, group="Turtle Parameters", tooltip=t12) //Backtesting period startDate = input(title="Start Date", defval=timestamp("1 Jan 2020 00:00:00"), group="Backtesting Period") endDate = input(title="End Date", defval=timestamp("1 July 2034 00:00:00"), group="Backtesting Period") //----------------------------------VARIABLES INITIALISATION-----------------------------// //Turtle variables atr = ta.atr(atr_period) var float buy_price_long = na var float buy_price_short = na var float stop_loss_long = na var float stop_loss_short = na float account = na //Entry variables day_high_syst1 = ta.highest(high, S1_long) day_low_syst1 = ta.lowest(low, S1_short) day_high_syst2 = ta.highest(high, S2_long) day_low_syst2 = ta.lowest(low, S2_short) var bool skip = false var bool unskip_buffer_long = false var bool unskip_buffer_short = false //Exit variables exit_long_syst1 = ta.lowest(low, S1_long_exit) exit_short_syst1 = ta.highest(high, S1_short_exit) exit_long_syst2 = ta.lowest(low, S2_long_exit) exit_short_syst2 = ta.highest(high, S2_short_exit) float exit_signal = na //Backtesting period bool inRange = na //------------------------------CHECKING SOME CONDITIONS ON EACH SCRIPT EXECUTION-------------------------------// //Checking if the date belong to the range inRange := true strategy.initial_capital = 50000 //Checking if the current equity is higher or lower than the initial capital to adjusted position size if strategy.equity - strategy.openprofit < strategy.initial_capital account := (strategy.equity-strategy.openprofit)*(strategy.equity-strategy.openprofit)/strategy.initial_capital else account := strategy.equity - strategy.openprofit //Checking if we close all trades in case where we exit the backtesting period if strategy.position_size!=0 and not inRange strategy.close_all() debugLabel("END OF BACKTESTING PERIOD : we close the trade", color=color.rgb(116, 116, 116)) //--------------------------------------SKIP MANAGEMENT------------------------------------// //Checking if a long signal has been skiped and system2 is not triggered if skip and high>day_high_syst1[1] and high<day_high_syst2[1] unskip_buffer_long := true //Checking if a short signal has been skiped and system2 is not triggered if skip and low<day_low_syst1[1] and low>day_low_syst2[1] unskip_buffer_short := true //Checking if current high is lower than previous 20_day_high after a skiped long signal to set skip to false if unskip_buffer_long if high<day_high_syst1[1] skip := false unskip_buffer_long := false //Checking if current low is higher than previous 20_day_low after a skiped short signal to set skip to false if unskip_buffer_short if low>day_low_syst1[1] skip := false unskip_buffer_short := false //Checking if we have an open position to reset skip and unskip buffers if strategy.position_size!=0 and skip skip := false unskip_buffer_long := false unskip_buffer_short := false //--------------------------------------------ENTRY CONDITIONS--------------------------------------------------// //We calculate the position size based on turtle calculation unit = (percentage_to_risk/100)*account/atr*syminfo.pointvalue //Long order for system 1 if not skip and not (strategy.position_size>0) and inRange and unit>0 strategy.cancel("Long Syst 2") //We check that position size doesn't exceed available equity if unit*day_high_syst1>account unit := account/day_high_syst1 stop_loss_long := day_high_syst1 - stop_N_multiplier*atr //We adjust SL if it's greater than 10% of trade value and fix it to 10% if stop_loss_long < day_high_syst1*0.9 stop_loss_long := day_high_syst1*0.9 strategy.order("Long Syst 1", strategy.long, unit, stop=day_high_syst1) buy_price_long := day_high_syst1 //Long order for system 2 if skip and not (strategy.position_size>0) and inRange and unit>0 //We check that position size doesn't exceed available equity if unit*day_high_syst2>account unit := account/day_high_syst2 stop_loss_long := day_high_syst2 - stop_N_multiplier*atr //We adjust SL if it's greater than 10% of trade value and fix it to 10% if stop_loss_long < day_high_syst2*0.9 stop_loss_long := day_high_syst2*0.9 strategy.order("Long Syst 2", strategy.long, unit, stop=day_high_syst2) buy_price_long := day_high_syst2 //Short order for system 1 if not skip and not (strategy.position_size<0) and inRange and unit>0 strategy.cancel("Short Syst 2") //We check that position size doesn't exceed available equity if unit*day_low_syst1>account unit := account/day_low_syst1 stop_loss_short := day_low_syst1 + stop_N_multiplier*atr //We adjust SL if it's greater than 10% of trade value and fix it to 10% if stop_loss_short > day_low_syst1*1.1 stop_loss_short := day_low_syst1*1.1 strategy.order("Short Syst 1", strategy.short, unit, stop=day_low_syst1) buy_price_short := day_low_syst1 //Short order for system 2 if skip and not (strategy.position_size<0) and inRange and unit>0 //We check that position size doesn't exceed available equity if unit*day_low_syst2>account unit := account/day_low_syst2 stop_loss_short := day_low_syst2 + stop_N_multiplier*atr //We adjust SL if it's greater than 10% of trade value and fix it to 10% if stop_loss_short > day_low_syst2*1.1 stop_loss_short := day_low_syst2*1.1 strategy.order("Short Syst 2", strategy.short, unit, stop=day_low_syst2) buy_price_short := day_low_syst2 //-------------------------------PYRAMIDAL------------------------------------// //Pyramid for long orders if close > buy_price_long + (pyramid_profit*atr) and strategy.position_size>0 //We calculate the remaining capital remaining_capital = account - strategy.position_size*strategy.position_avg_price*(1-0.0018) //We calculate units to add to the long position units_to_add = (percentage_to_risk/100)*remaining_capital/atr*syminfo.pointvalue if remaining_capital > units_to_add and units_to_add>0 //We set the new Stop loss stop_loss_long := stop_loss_long + pyramid_profit*atr strategy.entry("Pyramid Long", strategy.long, units_to_add) buy_price_long := close //Pyramid for short orders if close < buy_price_short - (pyramid_profit*atr) and strategy.position_size<0 //We calculate the remaining capital remaining_capital = account + strategy.position_size*strategy.position_avg_price*(1-0.0018) //We calculate units to add to the short position units_to_add = (percentage_to_risk/100)*remaining_capital/atr*syminfo.pointvalue if remaining_capital > units_to_add and units_to_add>0 //We set the new Stop loss stop_loss_short := stop_loss_short - pyramid_profit*atr strategy.entry("Pyramid Short", strategy.short, units_to_add) buy_price_short := close //----------------------------EXIT ORDERS-------------------------------// //Checking if exit_long_syst1 is higher than stop_loss_long if strategy.opentrades.entry_id(0)=="Long Syst 1" if exit_long_syst1[1] > stop_loss_long exit_signal := exit_long_syst1[1] else exit_signal := stop_loss_long //Checking if exit_long_syst2 is higher than stop_loss_long if strategy.opentrades.entry_id(0)=="Long Syst 2" if exit_long_syst2[1] > stop_loss_long exit_signal := exit_long_syst2[1] else exit_signal := stop_loss_long //Checking if exit_short_syst1 is lower than stop_loss_short if strategy.opentrades.entry_id(0)=="Short Syst 1" if exit_short_syst1[1] < stop_loss_short exit_signal := exit_short_syst1[1] else exit_signal := stop_loss_short //Checking if exit_short_syst2 is lower than stop_loss_short if strategy.opentrades.entry_id(0)=="Short Syst 2" if exit_short_syst2[1] < stop_loss_short exit_signal := exit_short_syst2[1] else exit_signal := stop_loss_short //If the exit order is configured to close the position at a profit, we set 'skip' to true (we substract commission) if strategy.position_size*exit_signal>strategy.position_size*strategy.position_avg_price*(1-0.0018) strategy.cancel("Long Syst 1") strategy.cancel("Short Syst 1") skip := true if strategy.position_size*exit_signal<=strategy.position_size*strategy.position_avg_price*(1-0.0018) skip := false //We place stop exit orders if strategy.position_size > 0 strategy.exit("Exit Long", stop=exit_signal) if strategy.position_size < 0 strategy.exit("Exit Short", stop=exit_signal) //------------------------------PLOTTING ELEMENTS-------------------------------// plotchar(atr, "ATR", "", location.top, color.rgb(131, 5, 83)) //Plotting enter threshold plot(day_high_syst1[1], "20 day high", color.rgb(118, 217, 159)) plot(day_high_syst2[1], "55 day high", color.rgb(4, 92, 53)) plot(day_low_syst1[1], "20 day low", color.rgb(234, 108, 108)) plot(day_low_syst2[1], "55 day low", color.rgb(149, 17, 17)) //Plotting Exit Signal plot(exit_signal, "Exit Signal", color.blue, style=plot.style_circles) //Plotting our position exit_long_syst2_plot = plot(exit_long_syst2[1], color=na) day_high_syst2_plot = plot(day_high_syst2[1], color=na) exit_short_syst2_plot = plot(exit_short_syst2[1], color=na) day_low_syst2_plot = plot(day_low_syst2[1], color=na) fill(exit_long_syst2_plot, day_high_syst2_plot, color=strategy.position_size>0 ? color.new(color.lime, 90) : na) fill(exit_short_syst2_plot, day_low_syst2_plot, color=strategy.position_size<0 ? color.new(color.red, 90) : na)