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No prediction, only reflection of price changes

Author: Inventors quantify - small dreams, Created: 2017-03-20 09:46:44, Updated:

No prediction, only reflection of price changes

There is a saying on Wall Street that a good trader is a "no-opinion" trader, meaning that a trader should not assume the direction of the market in advance when trading, but should let the market tell him the direction of the market. If we are less bound by multiple viewpoints, our minds are flexible, and we can take appropriate measures to adjust our trading strategies when the market changes.

  • One:

    In the investment market, we often see a person who insists on his own judgment, even if the market develops clearly not according to expectations, but the trader still persists until the scene loses control. A mature trader is likely to have strict risk controls, believe not to make mistakes that will allow losses to develop unlimited, and understand well the meaning of the phrase "a good trader is a trader without a point of view".

    But in practice it is more or less the case, especially when we hold a position, that it is difficult to abandon the preference for a multi-empty orientation. Our brains are always looking for a point of view that is consistent with our own position and ignoring the opposite. In a sense, from the moment we hold a position, we will unconsciously wear colored glasses and it will be difficult to keep our thoughts objective.

    One of the core ideas of the trading master is that he does not make predictions about future price movements. The trading master only reflects on price movements. The trading master adheres to his own trading principles, the system says what, the trading master does what. From the trading mindset, the trading master believes that the criteria for measuring whether the trading mindset is good are: when holding a position, if the mind strongly hopes that the price moves in the direction of the opening position, it is a bad trading mindset; when you hold a position, if the price does not expect the movement in the direction of your opening position, but do all the measures to respond to the price movements, it is a good trading mindset.

  • Second, the following conditions must be met for a transaction to be successful in the long term:

    • 1. to be able to identify the characteristics of the market;

    • 2) Being able to identify the traders' own characteristics (greed fear);

    • 3) To be able to seamlessly connect the characteristics of the market with their own characteristics.

      These three elements have become the goal that the master of trading has always pursued and strives to make the transaction as satisfactory as possible.

      For the first point, the identification of the characteristics of the market is accomplished by the trading master's futures trading system, which is currently capable of identifying the difficult task of identifying the characteristics of the market; for the second and third points, it can be improved by the corresponding organizational structure, for example, by the traders to execute the trading signals of the system. The traders do not have any responsibility for the reliability and effectiveness of the signals, and the criterion for judging the performance of the traders is to see whether they effectively execute the trading instructions issued.

      When trading, the trader must follow the signals given by the trading system. If the system is continuously frustrated, there should be no doubt about the effectiveness of the system and the new trading signals should be executed steadfastly. For example, when the trader makes two consecutive mistakes when trading according to the system signal, the system produces a third trading signal, because the trader has made two consecutive mistakes when trading according to the system.

      It is not difficult to understand why the first two mistakes in trading are the cost and cost of capturing the signal of the third major market. The trading master believes that losses during the whole trading period are forgivable, but missing the market is an unforgivable fatal mistake!

      A successful trader is one who, after a series of failures, is confident in the subsequent signals and decisively executes without ever missing a big market.

      So system traders need to abandon all desires and stick to being a system trader!

(Redirected from Sina blog)


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