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双 EMA と RSI の組み合わせたトレンド追跡戦略

作者: リン・ハーンチャオチャン開催日:2024年1月18日 15:51:06
タグ:

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概要

この戦略は,価格動向を特定し,トレンド逆転が発生するときに適切なタイミングでポジションを取るために,ダブルEMAとRSIインジケーターの使用を組み合わせます.特に,戦略は,主要なトレンド方向を判断するためにより長いサイクルEMAを使用し,短期的な過剰購入および過剰販売条件を決定するためにRSIインジケーターを使用します.価格が長または短いエントリに応じて主要なトレンド方向内に引き戻すときに,RSIインジケーターを通じて取引信号を生成します.

戦略の論理

  1. 主要なトレンド方向を決定するために200期 EMA を使用します. EMA線を超える価格は上昇傾向を示し,下にある価格は下落傾向を示します.

  2. RSI指標パラメータは10期に設定されています. RSIが40以上の信号を横切ると過剰販売状態になり,60以下の信号を横切ると過剰購入状態になります.

  3. 主なトレンドが上昇しているとき (EMA線上の価格) RSIが40を下回る oversold信号が発生すると,ロングします.

  4. 主なトレンドが下落しているとき (EMA線以下価格) RSIが60を超えたオーバー買い信号を突破すると,ショートします.

  5. ストップ・ロスはATR指標の4倍に設定し リスク・報酬比は2:1で ストップ・ロスの2倍に設定した利益を取ります

利点分析

この戦略の最大の利点は,トレンドと逆転指標の両方の組み合わせであり,トレンド内の引き下げが発生した場合にタイムリーエントリを可能にするため,より良いパフォーマンスを得ることができます. 具体的な利点は以下の通りです.

  1. 効率的なトレンド追跡のために,主要なトレンド方向を決定するために二重EMAシステムを使用します.

  2. RSI インディケーターは,短期間の過買い/過売状態を特定し,エントリータイミングを助けます.

  3. ATR指標で設定されたストップロスは,よりよいリスク管理のために市場の変動に適応します.

  4. トレンド取引の原則を厳格に遵守することで,不必要な取引やシステムリスクが軽減されます.

リスク分析

この戦略の主なリスクは以下のとおりです.

  1. トレンド が 弱まり,価格 が 振動 する 時 に は,偽りの 取引 の 信号 が 発生 する こと が あり ます.この 時 に は 慎重 に 取引 し て ください.

  2. ATR で設定されたストップ・ロスは,極端な市場条件では,幅が幅も狭すぎたりすることがあります.ダイナミックな調整または他のストップ・ロスのメカニズムを検討する必要があります.

  3. 潜在的に高い信号周波数は,個人の取引周波数優先順位に一致する必要があります.

  4. RSI パラメータの適度を監視し,適時に最適化する必要があります.

オプティマイゼーションの方向性

主な最適化方向は以下の通りである.

  1. トレンド判断を助けるためにMACDのような他のトレンド指標を追加してテストします.

  2. RSIをKDJやボリンジャーバンドなどの他の逆転指標と組み合わせてテストします

  3. 機械学習アルゴリズムを導入し ダイナミックなパラメータ調整と適応的なストップ損失/利益採取を行う.

  4. 感情やニュースなどの要素を 組み込むことで システムの安定性を高めます

結論

RSIは,トレンドトラッキングと逆転指標を組み合わせた非常に典型的な短期戦略である.この戦略は,デュアルEMAで主要なトレンドを判断し,RSIの逆転特性を利用してトレンド内の引き戻し機会を把握する.原則として,この戦略は,非常に良い補完効果のために異なる指標の強みを組み合わせます.パラメータ最適化,モデル融合などのさらなる改善は,そのパフォーマンスを大幅に向上させることができます.


/*backtest
start: 2024-01-10 00:00:00
end: 2024-01-14 13:00:00
period: 5m
basePeriod: 1m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// © kevinmck100

// @description
// This strategy is intended to be used as a base template for building new strategies.
//
// It incorporates the following features:
//
//      - Risk management:  Configurable X% loss per stop loss
//                          Configurable R:R ratio
//
//      - Trade entry:      Calculated position size based on risk tolerance
//
//      - Trade exit:       Stop Loss currently configurable ATR multiplier but can be replaced based on strategy
//                          Take Profit calculated from Stop Loss using R:R ratio
//
//      - Backtesting:      Configurable backtesting range by date
//
//      - Trade drawings:   TP/SL boxes drawn for all trades. Can be turned on and off
//                          Trade exit information labels. Can be turned on and off
//                          NOTE: Trade drawings will only be applicable when using overlay strategies
//
//      - Debugging:        Includes section with useful debugging techniques
//
// Strategy conditions:
//
//      - Trade entry:      LONG:   C1: Price is above EMA line
//                                  C2: RSI is crossing out of oversold area
//                          SHORT:  C1: Price is below EMA line
//                                  C2: RSI is crossing out of overbought area
//
//      - Trade exit:       Stop Loss:      Stop Loss ATR multiplier is hit
//                          Take Profit:    R:R multiplier * Stop Loss is hit
//
// The idea is to use RSI to catch pullbacks within the main trend. Note that
// this strategy is intended to be a simple base strategy for building upon.
// It was not designed to be traded in its current form.

//@version=5
INITIAL_CAPITAL = 1000
DEFAULT_COMMISSION = 0.02
MAX_DRAWINGS = 500
IS_OVERLAY = true

strategy("Risk Management Strategy Template", "Strategy Template", overlay = IS_OVERLAY, initial_capital = INITIAL_CAPITAL, currency = currency.NONE, max_labels_count = MAX_DRAWINGS, max_boxes_count = MAX_DRAWINGS, max_lines_count = MAX_DRAWINGS, default_qty_type = strategy.cash, commission_type = strategy.commission.percent, commission_value = DEFAULT_COMMISSION)

// =============================================================================
// INPUTS
// =============================================================================

// ------------------------ Replacable section - Start -------------------------
// ------------------
// Indicator Settings
// ------------------
emaLength           = input.int (200,   "EMA Length          ",             group = "Indicators: Settings",         inline = "IS1", minval = 1,                 tooltip = "EMA line to identify trend direction. Above EMA trend line is bullish. Below EMA trend line is bearish")
rsiLength           = input.int (10,    "RSI Length            ",           group = "Indicators: Settings",         inline = "IS2", minval = 1)

// ----------------------
// Trade Entry Conditions
// ----------------------
rsiOverbought       = input.int (60,    "RSI Overbought        ",           group = "Strategy: Conditions",         inline = "SC1", minval = 50, maxval = 100,  tooltip = "RSI overbought level used to identify pullbacks within the main trend. RSI crossing BELOW this level triggers a SHORT when in a DOWN trend")
rsiOversold         = input.int (40,    "RSI Oversold          ",           group = "Strategy: Conditions",         inline = "SC2", minval = 0,  maxval = 50,   tooltip = "RSI overbought level used to identify pullbacks within the main trend. RSI crossing ABOVE this level triggers a LONG when in an UP trend")

// ---------------------
// Trade Exit Conditions
// ---------------------
atrLength           = input.int  (14,   "Stop Loss ATR Length      ",       group = "Strategy: Exit Conditions",    inline = "EC1", minval = 0,                 tooltip = "Length of ATR used to calculate Stop Loss.")
slAtrMultiplier     = input.float(4,    "Stop Loss ATR Multiplier     ",    group = "Strategy: Exit Conditions",    inline = "EC2", minval = 0, step = 0.1,     tooltip = "Size of StopLoss is determined by multiplication of ATR value. Take Profit is derived from this also by multiplying the StopLoss value by the Risk:Reward multiplier.")
// ------------------------- Replacable section - End --------------------------

// ---------------
// Risk Management
// ---------------
riskReward          = input.float(2,    "Risk : Reward        1 :",         group = "Strategy: Risk Management",    inline = "RM1", minval = 0, step = 0.1,     tooltip = "Previous high or low (long/short dependant) is used to determine TP level. 'Risk : Reward' ratio is then used to calculate SL based of previous high/low level.\n\nIn short, the higher the R:R ratio, the smaller the SL since TP target is fixed by previous high/low price data.")
accountRiskPercent  = input.float(1,    "Portfolio Risk %         ",        group = "Strategy: Risk Management",    inline = "RM1", minval = 0, step = 0.1,     tooltip = "Percentage of portfolio you lose if trade hits SL.\n\nYou then stand to gain\n  Portfolio Risk % * Risk : Reward\nif trade hits TP.")

// ----------
// Date Range
// ----------
startYear           = input.int (2022,  "Start Date       ",                group = 'Strategy: Date Range',         inline = 'DR1', minval    = 1900, maxval = 2100)
startMonth          = input.int (1,     "",                                 group = 'Strategy: Date Range',         inline = 'DR1', options   = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12])
startDate           = input.int (1,     "",                                 group = 'Strategy: Date Range',         inline = 'DR1', options   = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31])
endYear             = input.int (2100,  "End Date      ",                   group = 'Strategy: Date Range',         inline = 'DR2', minval    = 1900, maxval = 2100)
endMonth            = input.int (1,     "",                                 group = 'Strategy: Date Range',         inline = 'DR2', options   = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12])
endDate             = input.int (1,     "",                                 group = 'Strategy: Date Range',         inline = 'DR2', options   = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31])

// ----------------
// Drawing Settings
// ----------------
showTpSlBoxes       = input.bool(false,  "Show TP / SL Boxes",               group = "Strategy: Drawings",           inline = "D1",  tooltip = "Show or hide TP and SL position boxes.\n\nNote: TradingView limits the maximum number of boxes that can be displayed to 500 so they may not appear for all price data under test.")
showLabels          = input.bool(false, "Show Trade Exit Labels",           group = "Strategy: Drawings",           inline = "D2",  tooltip = "Useful labels to identify Profit/Loss and cumulative portfolio capital after each trade closes.\n\nAlso note that TradingView limits the max number of 'boxes' that can be displayed on a chart (max 500). This means when you lookback far enough on the chart you will not see the TP/SL boxes. However you can check this option to identify where trades exited.")

// =============================================================================
// INDICATORS
// =============================================================================

// ------------------------ Replacable section - Start -------------------------
// ---
// EMA
// ---
ema = ta.ema(close, emaLength)
plot(ema, "EMA Trend Line", color.white)

// ---
// RSI
// ---
rsi = ta.rsi(close, rsiLength)
// ------------------------- Replacable section - End --------------------------


// =============================================================================
// STRATEGY LOGIC
// =============================================================================

// ---------
// FUNCTIONS
// ---------

percentAsPoints(pcnt) =>
    math.round(pcnt / 100 * close / syminfo.mintick)
    
calcStopLossPrice(pointsOffset, isLong) =>
    priceOffset = pointsOffset * syminfo.mintick
    if isLong
        close - priceOffset
    else 
        close + priceOffset

calcProfitTrgtPrice(pointsOffset, isLong) =>
    calcStopLossPrice(-pointsOffset, isLong)
    
        
printLabel(barIndex, msg) => label.new(barIndex, close, msg)

printTpSlHitBox(left, right, slHit, tpHit, entryPrice, slPrice, tpPrice) => 
    if showTpSlBoxes
        box.new (left = left,   top = entryPrice,   right = right,  bottom = slPrice,   bgcolor = slHit ? color.new(color.red, 60)   : color.new(color.gray, 90), border_width = 0)
        box.new (left = left,   top = entryPrice,   right = right,  bottom = tpPrice,   bgcolor = tpHit ? color.new(color.green, 60) : color.new(color.gray, 90), border_width = 0)
        line.new(x1 = left,     y1 = entryPrice,    x2 = right,     y2 = entryPrice,    color = color.new(color.yellow, 20))
        line.new(x1 = left,     y1 = slPrice,       x2 = right,     y2 = slPrice,       color = color.new(color.red, 20))
        line.new(x1 = left,     y1 = tpPrice,       x2 = right,     y2 = tpPrice,       color = color.new(color.green, 20))
        
printTpSlNotHitBox(left, right, entryPrice, slPrice, tpPrice) => 
    if showTpSlBoxes
        box.new (left = left,   top = entryPrice,   right = right,  bottom = slPrice,   bgcolor = color.new(color.gray, 90), border_width = 0)
        box.new (left = left,   top = entryPrice,   right = right,  bottom = tpPrice,   bgcolor = color.new(color.gray, 90), border_width = 0)
        line.new(x1 = left,     y1 = entryPrice,    x2 = right,     y2 = entryPrice,    color = color.new(color.yellow, 20))
        line.new(x1 = left,     y1 = slPrice,       x2 = right,     y2 = slPrice,       color = color.new(color.red, 20))
        line.new(x1 = left,     y1 = tpPrice,       x2 = right,     y2 = tpPrice,       color = color.new(color.green, 20))
        
printTradeExitLabel(x, y, posSize, entryPrice, pnl) => 
    if showLabels
        labelStr = "Position Size: " + str.tostring(math.abs(posSize), "#.##") + "\nPNL: " + str.tostring(pnl, "#.##") + "\nCapital: " + str.tostring(strategy.equity, "#.##") + "\nEntry Price: " + str.tostring(entryPrice, "#.##")
        label.new(x = x, y = y, text = labelStr, color = pnl > 0 ? color.new(color.green, 60) : color.new(color.red, 60), textcolor = color.white, style = label.style_label_down)

// ----------
// CONDITIONS
// ----------

inDateRange         = time >= timestamp(syminfo.timezone, startYear, startMonth, startDate, 0, 0) and time < timestamp(syminfo.timezone, endYear, endMonth, endDate, 0, 0)

// ------------------------ Replacable section - Start -------------------------
// Condition 1: Price above EMA indicates bullish trend, price below EMA indicates bearish trend
bullEma             = close > ema
bearEma             = close < ema

// Condition 2: RSI crossing back from overbought/oversold indicates pullback within trend
bullRsi             = ta.crossover  (rsi, rsiOversold)
bearRsi             = ta.crossunder (rsi, rsiOverbought)

// Combine all entry conditions
goLong              = inDateRange and bullEma and bullRsi
goShort             = inDateRange and bearEma and bearRsi
// ------------------------- Replacable section - End --------------------------

// Trade entry and exit variables
var tradeEntryBar   = bar_index
var profitPoints    = 0.
var lossPoints      = 0.
var slPrice         = 0.
var tpPrice         = 0.
var inLong          = false
var inShort         = false

// Entry decisions
openLong            = (goLong and not inLong)
openShort           = (goShort and not inShort)
flippingSides       = (goLong and inShort) or (goShort and inLong)
enteringTrade       = openLong or openShort
inTrade             = inLong or inShort

// ------------------------ Replacable section - Start -------------------------
// Exit calculations
atr                 = ta.atr(atrLength)
slAmount            = atr * slAtrMultiplier
slPercent           = math.abs((1 - (close - slAmount) / close) * 100)
tpPercent           = slPercent * riskReward
// ------------------------- Replacable section - End --------------------------

// Risk calculations
riskAmt             = strategy.equity * accountRiskPercent / 100
entryQty            = math.abs(riskAmt / slPercent * 100)  / close

if openLong
    if strategy.position_size < 0
        printTpSlNotHitBox(tradeEntryBar + 1, bar_index + 1, strategy.position_avg_price, slPrice, tpPrice)
        printTradeExitLabel(bar_index + 1, math.max(tpPrice, slPrice), strategy.position_size, strategy.position_avg_price, strategy.openprofit)
    strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, qty = entryQty, alert_message = "Long Entry")
    enteringTrade   := true
    inLong          := true
    inShort         := false

if openShort
    if strategy.position_size > 0
        printTpSlNotHitBox(tradeEntryBar + 1, bar_index + 1, strategy.position_avg_price, slPrice, tpPrice)
        printTradeExitLabel(bar_index + 1, math.max(tpPrice, slPrice), strategy.position_size, strategy.position_avg_price, strategy.openprofit)
    strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short, qty = entryQty, alert_message = "Short Entry")
    enteringTrade   := true
    inShort         := true
    inLong          := false

if enteringTrade
    profitPoints    := percentAsPoints(tpPercent)
    lossPoints      := percentAsPoints(slPercent)
    slPrice         := calcStopLossPrice(lossPoints, openLong)
    tpPrice         := calcProfitTrgtPrice(profitPoints, openLong)
    tradeEntryBar   := bar_index

strategy.exit("TP/SL", profit = profitPoints, loss = lossPoints, comment_profit = "TP Hit", comment_loss = "SL Hit", alert_profit = "TP Hit Alert", alert_loss = "SL Hit Alert")

// =============================================================================
// DRAWINGS
// =============================================================================

// -----------
// TP/SL Boxes
// -----------

slHit           = (inShort and high >= slPrice) or (inLong  and low <= slPrice)
tpHit           = (inLong  and high >= tpPrice) or (inShort and low <= tpPrice)
exitTriggered   = slHit or tpHit
entryPrice      = strategy.closedtrades.entry_price (strategy.closedtrades - 1)
pnl             = strategy.closedtrades.profit      (strategy.closedtrades - 1)
posSize         = strategy.closedtrades.size        (strategy.closedtrades - 1)

// Print boxes for trades closed at profit or loss
if (inTrade and exitTriggered) 
    inShort    := false
    inLong     := false 
    printTpSlHitBox(tradeEntryBar + 1, bar_index, slHit, tpHit, entryPrice, slPrice, tpPrice)
    printTradeExitLabel(bar_index, math.max(tpPrice, slPrice), posSize, entryPrice, pnl)

// Print TP/SL box for current open trade
if barstate.islastconfirmedhistory and strategy.position_size != 0
    printTpSlNotHitBox(tradeEntryBar + 1, bar_index + 1, strategy.position_avg_price, slPrice, tpPrice)
    
// =============================================================================
// DEBUGGING
// =============================================================================

// Data window plots
plotchar(slPrice,    "Stop Loss Price",     "")
plotchar(tpPrice,    "Take Profit Price",   "")

// Label plots
plotDebugLabels = false
if plotDebugLabels
    if bar_index == tradeEntryBar 
        printLabel(bar_index, "Position size: " + str.tostring(entryQty * close, "#.##"))


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