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Multi-Indicator Dynamic Adaptive Position Sizing dengan Strategi Volatilitas ATR

Penulis:ChaoZhang, Tanggal: 2024-11-12 11:41:30
Tag:ATREMARSISMA

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Gambaran umum

Strategi ini adalah sistem perdagangan kuantitatif yang menggabungkan beberapa indikator teknis dengan manajemen risiko dinamis. Ini mengintegrasikan tren EMA berikut, volatilitas ATR, kondisi overbought / oversold RSI, dan pengenalan pola candlestick, mencapai pengembalian yang seimbang melalui ukuran posisi adaptif dan mekanisme stop-loss dinamis.

Prinsip Strategi

Strategi ini menerapkan perdagangan melalui:

  1. Menggunakan lintas EMA 5 periode dan 10 periode untuk arah tren
  2. Indikator RSI untuk zona overbought/oversold
  3. Indikator ATR untuk stop-loss dinamis dan ukuran posisi
  4. Pola lilin (menelan, palu, bintang jatuh) sebagai sinyal masuk
  5. Kompensasi geser dinamis berbasis ATR
  6. Konfirmasi volume untuk penyaringan sinyal

Keuntungan Strategi

  1. Validasi silang beberapa sinyal meningkatkan keandalan
  2. Manajemen risiko dinamis beradaptasi dengan volatilitas pasar
  3. Strategi mengambil keuntungan parsial mengunci keuntungan
  4. Stop-loss trailing melindungi keuntungan terakumulasi
  5. Batas kerugian harian untuk mengontrol eksposur risiko
  6. Kompensasi slippage dinamis meningkatkan eksekusi order

Risiko Strategi

  1. Beberapa indikator dapat menyebabkan keterlambatan sinyal
  2. Perdagangan yang sering dapat menimbulkan biaya yang tinggi
  3. Stop-loss dapat sering terjadi di pasar yang berbeda
  4. Faktor subjektif dalam pengenalan pola candlestick
  5. Optimasi parameter berisiko overfit

Arahan Optimasi

  1. Memperkenalkan deteksi siklus pasar untuk penyesuaian parameter dinamis
  2. Tambahkan filter kekuatan tren untuk mengurangi sinyal palsu
  3. Mengoptimalkan algoritma ukuran posisi untuk efisiensi modal yang lebih baik
  4. Masukkan indikator sentimen pasar tambahan
  5. Mengembangkan sistem optimasi parameter adaptif

Ringkasan

Ini adalah sistem strategi canggih yang menggabungkan beberapa indikator teknis, meningkatkan stabilitas perdagangan melalui manajemen risiko dinamis dan validasi sinyal ganda.

/*backtest
start: 2024-10-01 00:00:00
end: 2024-10-31 23:59:59
period: 2h
basePeriod: 2h
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

//@version=5
strategy("Optimized Scalping with High Risk-Reward", overlay=true)

// Input for EMA periods
shortEMA_length = input(5, title="Short EMA Length")
longEMA_length = input(10, title="Long EMA Length")

// ATR for dynamic stop-loss
atrPeriod = input(14, title="ATR Period")
atrMultiplier = input(1.5, title="ATR Multiplier for Stop Loss")

// Calculate EMAs
shortEMA = ta.ema(close, shortEMA_length)
longEMA = ta.ema(close, longEMA_length)

// ATR calculation for dynamic stop loss
atr = ta.atr(atrPeriod)

// RSI for overbought/oversold conditions
rsi = ta.rsi(close, 14)

// Plot EMAs
plot(shortEMA, color=color.blue, title="Short EMA")
plot(longEMA, color=color.red, title="Long EMA")

// Dynamic Slippage based on ATR
dynamic_slippage = math.max(5, atr * 0.5)

// Candlestick pattern recognition
bullish_engulfing = close[1] < open[1] and close > open and close > open[1] and close > close[1]
hammer = close > open and (high - close) / (high - low) > 0.6 and (open - low) / (high - low) < 0.2
bearish_engulfing = open[1] > close[1] and open > close and open > open[1] and close < close[1]
shooting_star = close < open and (high - open) / (high - low) > 0.6 and (close - low) / (high - low) < 0.2

// Enhanced conditions with volume and RSI check
buy_condition = (bullish_engulfing or hammer) and close > shortEMA and shortEMA > longEMA and volume > ta.sma(volume, 20) and rsi < 70
sell_condition = (bearish_engulfing or shooting_star) and close < shortEMA and shortEMA < longEMA and volume > ta.sma(volume, 20) and rsi > 30

// Dynamic ATR multiplier based on recent volatility
volatility = atr
adaptiveMultiplier = atrMultiplier + (volatility - ta.sma(volatility, 50)) / ta.sma(volatility, 50) * 0.5

// Execute buy trades with slippage consideration
if (buy_condition)
    strategy.entry("Buy", strategy.long)
    stop_loss_buy = strategy.position_avg_price - atr * adaptiveMultiplier - dynamic_slippage
    take_profit_buy = strategy.position_avg_price + atr * adaptiveMultiplier * 3 + dynamic_slippage
    strategy.exit("Exit Buy", "Buy", stop=stop_loss_buy, limit=take_profit_buy)

// Execute sell trades with slippage consideration
if (sell_condition)
    strategy.entry("Sell", strategy.short)
    stop_loss_sell = strategy.position_avg_price + atr * adaptiveMultiplier + dynamic_slippage
    take_profit_sell = strategy.position_avg_price - atr * adaptiveMultiplier * 3 - dynamic_slippage
    strategy.exit("Exit Sell", "Sell", stop=stop_loss_sell, limit=take_profit_sell)

// Risk Management
maxLossPerTrade = input.float(0.01, title="Max Loss Per Trade (%)", minval=0.01, maxval=1, step=0.01)  // 1% max loss per trade
dailyLossLimit = input.float(0.03, title="Daily Loss Limit (%)", minval=0.01, maxval=1, step=0.01) // 3% daily loss limit

maxLossAmount_buy = strategy.position_avg_price * maxLossPerTrade
maxLossAmount_sell = strategy.position_avg_price * maxLossPerTrade

if (strategy.position_size > 0)
    strategy.exit("Max Loss Buy", "Buy", stop=strategy.position_avg_price - maxLossAmount_buy - dynamic_slippage)

if (strategy.position_size < 0)
    strategy.exit("Max Loss Sell", "Sell", stop=strategy.position_avg_price + maxLossAmount_sell + dynamic_slippage)

// Daily loss limit logic
var float dailyLoss = 0.0
if (dayofweek != dayofweek[1])
    dailyLoss := 0.0  // Reset daily loss tracker at the start of a new day

if (strategy.closedtrades > 0)
    dailyLoss := dailyLoss + strategy.closedtrades.profit(strategy.closedtrades - 1)

if (dailyLoss < -strategy.initial_capital * dailyLossLimit)
    strategy.close_all("Daily Loss Limit Hit")

// Breakeven stop after a certain profit with a delay
if (strategy.position_size > 0 and close > strategy.position_avg_price + atr * 1.5 and bar_index > strategy.opentrades.entry_bar_index(0) + 5)
    strategy.exit("Breakeven Buy", from_entry="Buy", stop=strategy.position_avg_price)

if (strategy.position_size < 0 and close < strategy.position_avg_price - atr * 1.5 and bar_index > strategy.opentrades.entry_bar_index(0) + 5)
    strategy.exit("Breakeven Sell", from_entry="Sell", stop=strategy.position_avg_price)

// Partial Profit Taking
if (strategy.position_size > 0 and close > strategy.position_avg_price + atr * 1.5)
    strategy.close("Partial Close Buy", qty_percent=50)  // Use strategy.close for partial closure at market price

if (strategy.position_size < 0 and close < strategy.position_avg_price - atr * 1.5)
    strategy.close("Partial Close Sell", qty_percent=50) // Use strategy.close for partial closure at market price

// Trailing Stop with ATR type
if (strategy.position_size > 0)
    strategy.exit("Trailing Stop Buy", from_entry="Buy", trail_offset=atr * 1.5, trail_price=strategy.position_avg_price)

if (strategy.position_size < 0)
    strategy.exit("Trailing Stop Sell", from_entry="Sell", trail_offset=atr * 1.5, trail_price=strategy.position_avg_price)
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